Prediction competition – results #ge11: And the winner is….

… one of only four of the 79 entries that ticked the no-publicity box. A free £150 bet with Betfair is in the post to the lucky insightful winner. Update: It seems that the winner – The Dissenter – ticked the ‘no publicity’ box by mistake.

The actual result was:

FG – 76. Lab – 37. FF – 20. SF 14. Others (not including speaker) 18.

Anon (for it is s/he) made the following prediction on the 7th Feb:

Seats: FG – 68. Lab – 37. FF – 27. SF – 14. Others (not including speaker) 19.

Not bad for an early prediction, eh? Entries were awarded with a point for every %-point variance from the actual result and Anon got a total of 16.

There are honourable menches for Mark McGregor (22), ‘Martin’ (22) and Donal Lyons (24) who took the runners-up slots. Modesty forbids me from saying who else came joint fourth.

We actually gave you two bites at this: one in the early part of February and it was these entrants that we offered the prize to. Later on, a few days before the actual poll, I wrote a post here with an outline of the late polling and bookies predictions and asked you for a second stab at it (without the offer of the prize though). Unsurprisingly, the predictions were a lot sharper and there were four joint winners – each of whom were only six points off the correct answer. They were (a different) Anon, Nicholas Whyte (surprise surprise!), Pat Holland and Mark Bailey. Barry Orr from Betfair scored a respectable ten points with his prediction the day before the poll.

Thanks to all 79 valid entrants (I deleted about half-a-dozen because the results didn’t add up to 165) and well done to the winners and runners-up.

Finally, apologies for the delay on this – by the time Galway East had finally fully declared, I was away from my PC – today’s the first day I’ve been back.

Update: Thanks to spreadsheet genius Jayne Hilditch who worked out the points system for me. Much obliged Jayne!

Living in London but working all over Britain and Ireland. A left-leaning Labour Party member and blogger. I’m on twitter as @paul0evans1 and I blog mainly at the Local Democracy blog though I’m in lots of other places as well. I’m a massive fan of Google Reader – please follow me and share the better posts from your feed?