Fine Gael maintain top place in latest Red C poll…

According to RTE this evening:

“The Red C poll in tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post shows Fine Gael on 35%, up two points since the last Sunday Business Post Poll one week ago.

“Labour is on 22%, up one. Fianna Fáil is up one to 17%, Sinn Féin unchanged on 13%, the Greens also unchanged on 2%, while Independents and others drop four to 11%.”

As a useful addendum, here’s Noel Whelan points out that his opponent’s hopes that Enda will screw up sufficiently to change the nature of the outcome may be misplaced:

Much as his opponents may wish for it, Kenny will not be the game-changer in this campaign. He has been Fine Gael leader for more than nine and a half years. Unlike all his opponents, bar Gerry Adams, Kenny has previously led his party through an election campaign. He is also the only current leader to have previously participated in a leaders’ election debate.

The public knows Kenny at this stage; a majority expresses dissatisfaction with him in polls, but in the same polls Fine Gael does well. The Kenny factor, such as it is, is already built into the Fine Gael share price. Whatever their apprehensions about him, voters are content to support Fine Gael in larger numbers than they have for decades. That is unlikely to change in the next three weeks.

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  • Cynic2

    I agree but think the real gap is less than the polls suggest. FF will hold on to more supporters than the polls suggest – but nowhere near enough

  • George

    Kenny may have been around for the last nine plus years as Whelan states but his current refusal to debate simply adds grist to the mill of those who believe that he is running scared and is not to be trusted with the highest office in the land.

    Chickengate might not stop him being Taoiseach but this type of behaviour will guarantee that FG don’t win an overall majority.

    This poll was taken before chickengate so we don’t know its effects yet.

  • Mick Fealty

    He’s refusing to debate on TV3 George, it’s a calculated risk. Vincent’s big with us denizens of the net, but his programme pulls in 150k a night.

    Now I know that, technically, FG are the only party running enough candidates to get an overall majority, but when in the last thirty years did any poll ever suggest they were anywhere near getting a majority?

    Chickengate. Nice line. But when I see people lining up demanding that Kenny debate when and where the news networks say he should, I’ll believe it’s a poor strategy.

    My *guess* is that people are too pre-occupied with the future of their jobs to worry about who’s not debating whom on TV3. But I’ve been wrong before!!

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Edna Kenny is a very lucky man. He should be a liability but with the kinda lead that FG has, all they have to do is hide him for three weeks.

  • lover not a fighter

    There may be more people willing to vote for Sinn Féin in the privacy of an electoral booth than are willing to admit this face to face with a pollster.

  • pippakin

    lover not a fighter

    I think the people folding their voting paper very, very carefully will be FF voters and I think there will be more of them than the OPs suggest.

  • George

    Mick,
    it’s true that VB is on TV3 and doesn’t have a huge audience. However, RTÉ does and his refusal to debate is all over the airways.

    It is also being used by the other parties as a stick to beat him with. I might add that his comment about the empty seat at the debate representing all those who have been forced to emigrate has gone down like a lead balloon.

    As for achieving an overall majority, why not? FF are in freefall, the PDs no longer exist and there is a huge hunger for change. As much as it depresses me to say it, the centre right is easily the majority in this country.

    And let’s not forget that potential coalition partner and Labour leader Gilmore, looking for a way to pacify the public sector unions, believes that there should be a three-year private sector pay freeze. That’s a really popular policy, as you can well imagine.

  • lover not a fighter

    pippakin

    The behaviour of the electorate in the polling booth as against what they are telling pollsters will be the most interesting part(for me anyway) of the election. Perhaps the pollsters will get it right ?

  • Drumlins Rock

    Red C SBP 13.2: FG 38% (+3), Lab 20 (-2), FF 15 (-2) SF 10 (-3), Ind 14 (+3), G 3(+1)

    This weeks poll, good for FG not good for FF its still going down at this stage, and SF should be worried if that bears out I presume?

  • A new poll out today has revealed that the majority of people do not trust Sinn Féin party leader Gerry Adams to deal with Ireland’s economic crisis.

    The survey of a 1,000 people was carried out by RED C and is published in today’s News of the World.

    Some 71% said they did not trust Gerry Adams to handle the economic crisis, while 67% said they did not trust Sinn Féin.

    The survey also revealed that four out of every five people believed Gerry Adams had lied about his past.

    http://www.breakingnews.ie/election/news/most-do-not-trust-adams-to-handle-economic-crisis-poll-493306.html

  • Drumlins Rock

    wow, 20% actually believe Gerry wasn’t in the IRA?

    just wondering how many seats 10% would be likely to get them?