Sinn Féin set to surge to unprecedented success

I must admit to being puzzled by Jody Corcoran’s musings on Sunday that Fine Gael could be set to take government on their own. Puzzled mostly because for most of the last year they seem to have a natural ceiling beyond which they seem unable to punch.

Now the latest poll in his sister paper, the Irish Independent confirms that Fine Gael will not be surging on to victory on their own. Figures from Politics.ie show little change (except for FG and SF):

FF 16; FG 30 – 4; Lab 24; Grn 1; SF 13 + 3; Ind 15

In fact, Sinn Fein are now well within the percentage corridor that has consistently brought Labour something in the 20 seat margin.

Quite something for a party whose leader doesn’t know the current child benefit rate, nor the VAT for the Republic. His leadership satisfaction rating is 31%, a rise of three points since Sunday (though since Micheal Martin is already at 44%, I would take all of these ratings with half a bag of salt).

The truth is though, as Fionnan Sheahan pointed out this morning on Morning Ireland, that Sinn Fein’s message is both clear and crystalline, in contrast with other opposition parties, who will actually have to take some form of responsibility in the next government.

Watch Dublin now. There are a number of seats, in which Labour ought to looking for two seats where Sinn Fein are well placed to bring new TDs home. For instance, former Belfast City Councillor Eoin Ó Broin ran in Dún Laoghaire last time out, where there was virtually no party base.

Now he’s being run in Dublin Mid West, where Joanne Spain put in a very creditable performance last time out. With the rise in the party’s overall rating and Ó Broin’s unambiguous positioning on the left of Sinn Fein (and that’s no mean feat), I would say he’ll do well enough out of transfers from Labour’s Joanna Tuffey to get him over the line.

There’s a way to go yet. But despite the fact there will be some nervousness in the party about over egging expectations, Sinn Fein ought to make significant progress, even if it’s not the 20 seat ‘miracle’ currently forecast on these figures.

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  • abucs

    If Sinn Fein got into double figures for the number of seats won they’d be ‘over the moon’.

    I think 20 is nowhere near possible, but am willing to be convinced. :o)

  • dwatch

    “FF 16; FG 30 – 4; Lab 24; Grn 1; SF 13 + 3; Ind 15”

    If I remember correctly last pre election polls had SF on to gain ten seats. They ended up with five.

  • Someone on politics.ie has worked out that 13% is giving them 17 quotas and 1 constituency win (presumably Cavan/Monaghan).

    Today’s RedC has SF on 12% which supports the Millward Brown Lansdowne poll – which is a lot more creditable than the makey-uppy Quantum Research bollocks the Sindo prints.

  • madraj55

    Sinn Fein need only get to the minimum seats to have the same entitlements in the Dail as other parties, and knowing their ability to maximise their advantage from their track record here, they’ take advantage of it.

  • Mick Fealty

    Yes, but (notwithstanding my own analysis at the time) Gerry was in part right in his rationale afterwards that they suffered a large two party squeeze. That’s not going to be the major factor it was this time out.

    I’m not sure I buy the 20 seat thing either. Corcoran’s Fine Gael can do it alone was just a piece of wishful nonsense. But the point I made above is that this is where Labour was and they were able to hold down 20 seats without a sweat.

    But with these figures they are definitely punching in the next weight up from last time out.

    What may put limits on SF’s step forward this time is the lack of depth in quality candidates.

    Aside from Gerry’s awful appearances (which may yet exert a drag effect on the final result), they have a strong appeal to those who did not fare well out of the Tiger Years.

    Given what SF folk have been saying for years on Slugger, this is their moment to take that long burnished post Tiger strategy out of the box its been stored in these long prosperous years.

  • Mack

    @Ulick

    The last Sindo poll was also a Millward Brown Lansdowne poll.

    I would guess a 3% surge in a week with no real news to drive that surge (and perhaps even gaffes by the leader to reverse it) is more related to errors in one or both of the polls than a swing in opinion..

  • Mack

    @Mick

    I think Corcoran was suggesting that FG might form a minority government (with Tallaght strategy style FF support) rather than have an overall majority themselves..

  • Apologies Mack, they’re coming thick and fast now. Quantum Research must have been the one before last which had SF on 4% or something similar. Going to be death by opinion poll shortly I fear.

  • Nunoftheabove

    I saw 100/30 on SF taking 13 to 14 seats this mornring following the publication of this poll – there might be value in contesting that.

  • Nunoftheabove

    …for clarity – that’s 100/30 against, not 100/30 on.

  • Mack

    There are complicating factors that might make polling more difficult this time. A large number of independents are standing, and they’ll be more effective in some constituencies than others, depending on the methodology used that might skew the results. Even within the same set of polls.

    SF and FG might be the parties you’d expect to be most affected by inds. (Senator Shane Ross, Paul Sommerville, Marc Coleman will likely be competing with FG for votes, and the ULA and SF will be competing for the same votes in many areas too.)

  • Wan

    The comparison to Labour is imperfect in that SF aren’t transfer friendly in the same way that Labour are. None of SFs candidates are going to top the poll (except maybe Gerry) so they will be depending on transfers to get them over the line.
    58% of people say they would never vote for SF so they are looking for transfers from 29% of the population. Of that most would be Labour supporters whose candidates will poll better than SF and now are also running second candidates so I don’t think they will benefit from this outside of the border regions where Labour candidates are more likely to be eliminated first.

    Therefore: I don’t predict any big break for SF in Dublin which (I think) is where people are saying the 15 – 20 seats will come from.

  • “None of SFs candidates are going to top the poll (except maybe Gerry) so they will be depending on transfers to get them over the line.”

    Ó Caoláin will top the poll in Cavan/Monaghan and might pull Reilly in with him. Outside possibility of them topping the poll in one of the two Donegals. Also I don’t buy the transfer repellent line this time around – I’ve been speaking to a few rural FG types in Wexford recently who are giving their vote to SF this time around. Anecdotal I know but if the anger is so bad that it causes FG voters to make the jump then gap would be less so for the average voter.

  • Mack

    @Ulick

    It’s too early to tell on that. I know Labour supporters annoyed / worried that with SF riding so high (historically speaking) in the polls that ‘good Labour candidates might lose out’.

  • Wan

    @Ulick
    I forgot there’s no incumbent FG standing in Cavan/Monaghan so Ó Caoláin could well top the poll.

    @Mack
    Heard the same things myself.

  • Mick Fealty

    Mack, agreed on the nature of the three percent variance. Yesterday though RTE was showing it’s poll of polls and it suggested that SF’s is pretty much shored up by that overall poll.

  • Mick Fealty

    Wan,

    Generally I would hold with that general view. But I do think Eoin is different. He was high profile during Lisbon, and is more Labour/Left than SF in his general outline.

    You don’t expect (or need) to top the poll when your national ratings to do well lower down the order. I also think Pearse Doherty’s generation of SF politician won’t get the constitutional brush off in the way that old guard always has.

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    Nunoftheabove

    Regarding SF betting, as I mentioned yesterday, on a different thread, their predictions (undertstandably) are the most volatile as polls generally tend to either underestimate or over estimate them. Paddy Power seems to ‘pull’ the SF seat estimate from time to time – either becuase of pending polls or becaemuse of large dollops of money being put on them.

    It is my observation that the odds offered on SF are generally too short because a disproportionate number of people (or money) who seem to bet are betting for SF – ballot box in one and betting slip in the other.

    Anyways here are the latest figure from my trusty investment advisor himself Patrick Power esquire.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-government?ev_oc_grp_ids=91434

  • Drumlins Rock

    Sammy, do you agree with Paddy and go for 13 -14 seats? I think that will probably be the height of it, see the latest poll on P.ie is up, Red C/ Paddypowers
    FG 37% (+4)
    FF 18% (+2)
    Lab 19% (-2%)
    SF 12% (-1%)
    Grn 3%
    Ind 11% (-4%)

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    Drumlins Rock

    In my view yes, for SF (although this has now been said a few times) it is the election after next that is the key breakthrough one – either (next time out) in league with the Labour party or in serious oppostion to the Labour Party the latter having received the LibDems-bed with-the-Devil treatment. I suspect if no further significant advance next time they will accpet that they are really an Ulster rather than an Other-3-Provinces party as well.

    ps Hopefully by then Marty will be First Minister.

  • Mick

    I think your right about the constitutional brush off, from what I have been told this younger generation of SF have also been going down well in Radio and TV interviews. Eoin Ó Broin would be an asset to any parliamentary party as too would Doherty and the recently elected TD from Donagal.

    By the way this thread must be a first for slugger, debating SF without the usual bile.

  • Should have read,

    Ó Broin would be an asset to any parliamentary party as too would Doherty the recently elected TD from Donagal.

  • Mick Fealty

    Mick, you (and others) have simply been a sleep at the wheel. I’m not going to manufacture good news for anyone, but when it’s there we’ll report it high, loud and proud.

  • Mick Fealty

    DR,

    GO through it and name them. That’s the best way of shaking things out. One in Donegal NE, a second in Cavan/Monaghan, One in Cork, Kerry South, Wexford, Waterford (erm), and possibly four in Dublin. That’s a decent chance of 12. You only need one more from nowhere and you are home and dry.

  • redhugh78

    If SF get to the level of seats that allows them equal speaking rights etc in the Dail coupled with the establishing of credible support bases for next time around then that in my opinion will be a succesful election.

    I expect the pro establishment media and their lackies to go into overdrive from now to the election mind you to undermine the rise in support for SF.

    p.s Mick I like the logo…eventually. 🙂

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Mr Fealty is a capable anayst and if he believes that the poll overstates the positions of Gerry Adams and Micaél Martin…..and should be taken with “half a bag of salt” then surely there is no point in opinion polls except as a talking point..and as part of the evidence.
    Sinn Féin were over-confident even arrogant last time out and yes as Mr Fealty points out the victims of a squeeze.But they were also unlucky with counts. Its hard to see that they will be so unlucky again.
    Its far too early to make predictions…..which of course means that I will fall into the trap of making one.
    To some extent, people will only get elected as a TD if they are a “name” at council or other level. Its hard to get into the Dáil from a standing start. My first thought is that to get over 20 seats would mean SF just about getting a TD elected in every other constituency. Even allowing for the possibility of two in Cavan-Monaghan it SEEMS to be a big ask. And SF just dont have 20 “names”.
    Therefore 20 seems high.
    Im inclined to think that it will be “around 15” which at this stage gives some wriggle room.
    I just cant see Miriam O’Callaghan looking at graphics of the final result and saying “and the final seat went to Sinn Féin” too often.
    On the other hand I think Fianna Fáil will have a TD (including perhaps nominally indepent TDs) in most constituencies. I think they are a “safe” vote in some respects. They wont be the next Government and their “natural” voters will be divided between those loyal to the end, those who want to put them out f office forever and those who want to see them with a much reduced but credible Dáil party.
    Much depends on Enda Kenny…its nonsense to think that re-negotiating the bail out is credible and going to Brussels like a Taoiseach in Waiting is just bad form. How he performs in debates is probably a key. In himself he is a liability.
    Labour is looking slightly nervous. Attaching itself so firmly to FG and being dismissive of SF might cost them. Each time a spokesperson appears Im inclined to think “Labour” or “Democratic Left”. There IS a fault line there to be exploited. There are not as united as they would have us believe.
    An interesting scenario presents itself when FG fall short of a majority and the difference between FG and Labour is less than the number of SF Deputies. (Of course FF and Independents have votes too) but there is a scenario where the next Taoiseach COULD be determined by SF votes.

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    Mick,

    SF will not be contesting Kerry South.

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    As it stands SF will come home with a least one seat. This brings us back to [url=http://sluggerotoole.com/2007/08/16/sinn-feins-activists-in-deep-denial/] this [/url report from Slugger in August 2007.

    Newly promoted Senator Eoghan Harris was riding the Fianna Fáil wave and was taking great delight at needling the assembled crowd. Among them Gerry Adams.

    A week can be a long time in politics, but for those who have shilled for Fianna Fáil the intervening period must seem like an eternity.

    The question for Eoghan is will he pay the £1000 owed to Jude Collins following the election?

  • Mick Fealty

    Thanks for the correct Pat. Here’s the Toireasa story: http://www.herald.ie/national-news/election-briefs-ferris-daughter-isnt-standing-2517851.html No candidate in Clare either.

    That’s a blow, but since we’re trawling through the Slugger archives, not a big surprise:

    http://sluggerotoole.com/2009/06/09/i-dont-want-to-make-a-career-out-of-politics/

  • Drumlins Rock

    Had wondered at the talk of her standing, considering her denials back then. Know little about the areas, but is 4 in Dublin realistic?

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    Mick,

    as well as Sth Kerry and Clare the other constituencies that SF are not fighting are; Dublin North; Dublin South; Dun Laoghire and Limerick.

  • Mick Fealty

    On a very good day, yes. The unknown quantity is how badly FF will do. For instance, if Mary Lou gets a seat in Dublin Central, it will most likely be at expense of FF getting anyone in at all.

    Brady’s seat is gone (purely on national ratings, it will probably go to Fine Gael). Mary Fitzpatrick was not loved by Bertie the ward boss. It’s a moot point as to whether the loss of his machine will harm her, or her public enmity with him may actually stand her in good stead. My guess is that she and Mary Lou will be fighting it out for that last seat.

    We have yet to factor in any Martin FF Nua effect.

  • Mack

    The new posters are good. A picture of Martin with the FF logo hardly visible, and the subliminal message in “Real plan Better Future”. Plan and Future are hardly visible. It does look like something new, and presumably they are trying to attach ‘better’ to that too..

  • Mr Crumlin

    I, like others, remember 2007 – I also remember Pat McLarnons excellent analysis of what needed to change after that election. As a supporter rather than activist Id be interested to know if the necessary structural changes took place.

    The eternal pessimist in me says low double figures would be very welcome.

    Also cant help thinking if Pearse had got in in 2007 SF would be much better positioned to capitalise on FF shambles – a shambles that I still think over 20%+ will vote for.

  • Antoin Mac C.

    Sinn fein are not going to win twenty seats or anything like it,their entire working-class base in dublin is gone.they have nothing left.Parachuting candidates like Eoin O’Broin into traditional working-class areas won’t work.He’s not exactly what we’d consider as cut from the same cloth.Mary Lou has single-handedly done what nobody thought possible,and destroyed any remaining hopes they had in the capital of ireland.How in the name of god is a middle-class person going to lead the working-class of dublin?
    Aengus o’snodaigh is another parachute candidate,who is actually from sandymount,and hasn’t a clue about what poverty is like.Dessie Ellis in Finglas is the last of the old brigade.Other than that,all sinn fein can hope for is the fianna fail vote.Building on Ireland of Equals?A party built on dictatorship,that doesn’t know the first thing about equality, can’t possibly bring equality.What is equality?Hanging a flag of james connolly outside the front of AP/RN??????
    Selling our history on rebel tours.That’s as bad as Bertie claiming to be a socialist.And we all know about Berties socialism.

  • Nunoftheabove

    ItwasSammyMcNally

    Agreed, some of those prices look very thin to me – worth shopping further afield for decent prices here and I’ve noticed PP wiping its web blackboard every now and then and effectively launching a new market more than once a day some days – that said I think it doesn’t take much concentration of money to move those markets quite a bit. Think the value’s in individual seats 😉

  • Mick Fealty

    Antoin,

    The figures are volatile. And there’s a massive chunk of undecideds, which I suspect will break largely in FF’s favour when it comes to the vote.

    But sometimes activists underestimate the power of national swings. The extraordinary aspect to any success in Dublin for SF would be the concomitant loss of local reps at council level.

    Doherty’s High Court victory and subsequent bye election victory got the party noticed in way they simply weren’t in 2007, and the SF anti bailout narrative is having an effect, even if no one’s really tested them on the downside of that policy.

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    Mick,

    “even if no one’s really tested them on the downside of that policy.”

    I suspect we will be hearing quite a bit about the ‘downside’ of SF policies – and there will be much talk of the wrecking the country…even as those who spake it sit in the middle of the economic debris.

  • “Aengus o’snodaigh is another parachute candidate,who is actually from sandymount,and hasn’t a clue about what poverty is like.”

    Aengus lives in a terraced house in Ballyfermot and has done so for at least ten years. I’d say he has a fair idea.

  • Antoin Mac C.

    Ulick

    My father is from ballyfermot,my grand-mother is from ballyfermot,and i can asure you as an ex sinn fein activist that Aengus is not from ballyfermot or anything like it.He may have moved there for tactical reasons,but what exactly does he have a clue about.Please inform me.From where i’m standing i can’t for the life of me see one good thing that sinn fein nua have done in ballyfermot over the past ten years.Nothing.Zero.Zilsch.Ask Aengus about his working class roots and then come back and give me a good education on life in ballyfermot from the sin shame book of foolsology.You seem very well versed.

  • Antoin Mac C.

    Mick

    Pearse Doherty obviously done well,there’s no disputing that.Neil Blaney also came from the same well.He designed BALLYMUN.

  • John Ó Néill

    Unfortunately, due to other draws on my time, I’m only joining the conversations here erratically at the minute (and there’s going to be lots of white noise on the various online conversations over the next few weeks).

    A couple of factors are worth looking at here. SF’s overall rating includes substantial areas (such as Galway, Clare, Tipp) where support seems too low to mount any sort of serious challenge. Anecdotally (until 25 Feb) it appears that FF may be transfer repellant and the early elimination of FF candidates will be unusual since it isn’t clear where their 2/3/4 etc will go. Similarly, I expect FF support to be less likely to turn out. In some constituencies, a stronger SF showing will hurt Labour where the SF candidate does not get eliminated early enough to help a Labour candidate who may have previously expected to squeak in on the last count. How the independents will influence the counts will also vary by constituency.

    I’d guess a rough checklist of probable SF seats is Doherty (Donegal SW), Mac Lochlainn (Donegal NE), Ó Caoláin (Cavan-Monaghan), Adams (Louth), Ó Snodaigh (Dublin SC), Ferris (Kerry N). What look like pretty better than 50/50 chances of gains are Crowe (Dublin SW), Stanley (Laois-Offaly), MacDonald (Dublin C), Ellis (Dublin NW), O’Toole (Dublin NE). Thats eleven.

    Very much on the edge of being winnable are a few other seats, such as O’Brien (Cork NC), Reilly (Cavan-Monaghan), Colreavy (Sligo/NL), Kenny (Roscommon/SL), Tobin (Meath W). More distant outliers are O’Leary (Cork SC), O Broin (Dublin MW), Funchion (Carlow-Kilkenny), Brady (Wicklow) and Kelly (Wexford), Hogan (Longford-Westmeath), Quinlivan (Limerick), Conway-Walsh (Mayo), Cullinane (Waterford) and Gallagher (Meath E).

    SF may well pick up some of the marginally winnable seats, and some of the outliers may well swing on the last count (e.g. Funchion is one of two SF candidates in Carlow-Kilkenny who are currently polling close to a quota between them). All-in-all, fifteen seats seems quite possible, although the trajectory of the next few weeks may push it back down to 11, or closer to 20.

    Oddly, the only real SF target would be 7 seats to achieve ‘group’ status for Dáil business which seems to be a done deal. How many over 10 or so rests on a lot of factors, including the ‘anti-bailout’ narrative Mick mentioned. I suspect that’s a debate that is going to unfold in a very intriguing direction over the next week or two (and not in a way that will damage support for SF).

  • Antoin Mac C.

    Ratings according to who?Sinn shame are capable of gaining a protest seat or two but to delude oneself into believing that their a rising force,is well delusional.MI5 sin shame are currently on the verge of being exposed for the thugs that they are.The brits no longer have any use for them.Why do you think the intelligence services are now ordering an investigation into the cold-blooded murder of ira volunteer joe o’connor now?They knew ten years ago that the PIRA Broy Harriers carried out the murder.

  • john

    Antoin everyone is aware of Sinn Fein and their past but most of the other politicians in the South are so corrupt and rotten to the core that the voters are left with pretty poor options. If Sinn Fein are thugs then the rest of the parties are crooks.

  • @Antoin ten years residency would get you naturalised citizenship in most countries, but it’s not good enough for Aengus to have the right to represent Ballyfermot in your eyes? Take the chip of your shoulder and move on.

  • Antoin Mac C.

    John,not most,all of them are thugs and crooks.All of them.
    At least Pearse Doherty had the decency to admit that he’s a liar,after being caught out of course.Read the papers.Might be only a small matter that he lied about his education.Who was he trying to impress?
    The working-class?My mother left school when she was twelve.I have friends that are illiterate.It might cut the mustard in Donegal and Belfast to be an out and out thug,we don’t treat each other like that down here.Simple as.

  • Antoin Mac C.

    Ulick,is that some sort of threat?Move on?Where too?Sandymount,where Aengus grew up?Can’t afford it.Simple as.

  • On transfers, how will the indies, the SP and the various left cling together, recommend their supporters cast their second preferences etc?

    Are they going to ape the mainstream and recommend a no vote for SF, and urge their supporters to cast their second preference to the LP, which could help elect a right wing coalition, or suggest people vote SF?

  • Antoin Mac C.

    Ulick,what’s the sinn fein view on the peadeophile priest father tony walsh-from ballyfermot?Does it differ in the north from the south?Is partition a factor in their policy on this issue?

  • Drumlins Rock

    John, thanks for that breakdown, know where to watch now, would I be right to say despite it being a big increase in numbers anything under 10 seats would be a disaster for SF in the current circumstances, and 20 and over they would be exstatic, 10-12 disappointing, 13-16 pleased, and 16-19 delighted to fill in the rest!

  • PaulT

    “What may put limits on SF’s step forward this time is the lack of depth in quality candidates.”

    Mick, same can be said for FG and Labour, difference is unlike SF it has been proven in one case for the other parties, DSW.

    FG put up a kid from the fringe and Labour put up Mr Shouty.

    With regards SF candidates and the other parties, have you actually done the research?

    Reason I ask is that SF have just put up Barrister in Dublin(CSE or CSW), who although not a councillor has been politically active for several years and although they have no chance of a seat there it will ruffle a few feathers.

    In truth, the only party with plenty of depth is FF and a lot of their experience will disappear on Feb 26th

  • PaulT

    This is the kiddie.

    Sinn Féin fields young barrister as general election candidate in Dublin South East

    Sinn Féin has selected Ruadhán Mac Aodháin, a 27-year-old barrister and a legal adviser in the Pearse Doherty by-election case, to contest the general election in the Dublin South East constituency.

    Ruadhán is a fluent Irish speaker and has previously worked for the Sinn Féin team in the European Parliament.
    He was a legal adviser involved in Pearse Doherty’s succesful High Court challenge which forced the Government to hold the Donegal South-West by-election that Fianna Fáil tried to avoid.
    Ruadhán has also worked in the Dáil where he co-authored a major report on inequality for a Joint Oireachtas Commission.

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    DR,

    See PP link below – it shows what is expected in each constituency – it may from time to time be suspended due to ‘events’ e.g. resignations, deaths attempted coups or minutiae like vat slip ups(added for Nunoftheabove).

    Anything above 10 is ‘good’, below is ‘bad’. SF are still and will remain primarily an Ulster party – but if they got around 20 they could claim to be a proper player in the Other-3-Provinces and that would be ‘excellent’. Above 10 and below 20 are varying degress of ‘good’.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-government?ev_oc_grp_ids=398451

  • Antoin Mac C.

    Ulick,a cara,the silence is deafining.In 2004 Mary Lou McDonald hung a flag outside of An Phoblacht on parnell square declaring that ‘housing is a right and not a privelege’,
    and Aengus O’Snodaigh had a picket two years ago outside the GPO on behalf of the homeless,in front of the window where the text of the proclamation is written,the text that has ommitted the diction of the socialist republic.
    As an mep did mary lou mcdonald support homeless agencies handing out free tents as homes.What a cara,is the sinn fein policy on homelessness?

  • Antoin Mac C.

    Oh wise men riddle me this,what is socialism?

    James Connolly-‘There’s no end to the lies they tell about me nono,because i’m a socialist.’

    Nora Connolly-‘Daddy,what’s a socialist?’

    James Connolly-‘A socialist nono,is a person who believes that no child should have to go barefoot.A person who believes that everybody should have a decent home,education and employment.’

    Nora Connolly-‘But everybody would want that,have you told everybody daddy?’

  • Antoin Mac C.

    Bertie Ahern on the suicde epidemic in ireland 2007-‘Anybody predicting a down turn in the economy should hang themseleves.’Sluggerites-What’s the sinn fein and fianna fail solution to suicide in ireland.Is partition a factor in either parties policy on this issue.We’re talking about an estimated 5000 during the celtic tiger.And now a recession.
    Over 70% of these were white males between the age of 15 to 25.From working-class council estates

  • PaulT

    However if James Connolly stood for election in your constituancy you wouldn’t vote for him cos he’s not from ’round here, and oi Jimmy my mates can’t read, n you ain’t fixed the leak in me ma’s toilet, Antoin, you’re a very angry individual and you should channel that anger into something positive such as your own local political party

  • Nunoftheabove

    Antoin Mac C.

    “Everybody should have a decent home,education and employment.”

    How many morally normal job-seeking people didn’t have all of these in the years 2000-1008 in southern (or for that matter northern) ireland ?

  • Paul

    There is much to be angry about comrade

  • Huey

    “The working-class?My mother left school when she was twelve.I have friends that are illiterate”

    Antoin, you seem to be a literate person. Why not take a literacy tutor course with NALA (www.nala.ie) and help your friends in a practical way.
    You don’t need Sinn Fein or any other party for this.

  • Watch Dublin now. There are a number of seats, in which Labour ought to looking for two seats where Sinn Fein are well placed to bring new TDs home. For instance, former Belfast City Councillor Eoin Ó Broin ran in Dún Laoghaire last time out, where there was virtually no party base.

    Now he’s being run in Dublin Mid West, where Joanne Spain put in a very creditable performance last time out. With the rise in the party’s overall rating and Ó Broin’s unambiguous positioning on the left of Sinn Fein (and that’s no mean feat), I would say he’ll do well enough out of transfers from Labour’s Joanna Tuffey to get him over the line.

    Eoin is a good candidate no doubt – but it’s wishful thinking to think he’ll be elected in Dublin Mid West or anywhere else. Even though I have no longer have any time for SF and their ‘all gong and no dinner’ politics, I think he would be a good addition to the Dáil However the problem is that SF is very good at opposing everything but is very poor at actually governing, as we’ve seen in NI.

    Their spokespeople on various topics are poorly briefed. We all know about Gerry Adams and his poor grasp of unimportant economic details, you know the vat rates and the child benefit paymens.

    Tonight on Prime Time, Martin Ferris was being interviewed on his views of public service reform in a story about the proposed cuts by the various parties in public service numbers. He had to ask the reporter how many were actually working in the public service. He guessed 270,000 and the reporter pointed out that there were 305,000. So despite SF protestations that they are against all cuts and for the common man, if they were in office they’d have laid off more than FG, Labour and FF combined and not noticed.

    Perhaps they’re going to do better this year than they were expected to do in 2007 – but then again perhaps the electorate will have more sense than to support the candidates who shout loudest with their sound bites and slogans.

  • Mark

    Antoin ,

    You mentioned earlier that some of your friends were illiterate and thats terrible but how is that SF’s fault ?. If you have a bone to pick with someone maybe you should try the last shower or the ones before those .

    If you are looking for any one to blame for the social problems in Ballyfermot , blame the heroin gangs up in Gallinstown and Cherryorchard .

    If anything the situation has improve with SF persuading some of the scumbags to leave .

    If you’re looking for some work , People before Profit need help putting up all the posters that have blown down tonight . Its great for the soul ..

  • abucs

    I’ve been out of the political news loop for a long time now. What exactly do people think they will get from Sinn Fein in the Republic that they won’t get from Labour?

  • Mick Fealty

    A dissenting voice at the feast?

    Few who vote SF this time will be persuaded they would make a competent government, because there is not a pup’s chance in hell they’ll make it.

    I only saw Ferris on briefly, but it’s clear that as with Adams, you cannot teach a old dog new tricks. This new language of government does not come easily or fluently to them.

  • Drumlins Rock

    “If anything the situation has improve with SF persuading some of the scumbags to leave ”

    Hey maybe SF have an amazing chance of even making government this time, if only they would use thier workers in Gallinstown and Cherryorchard across the whole country. Like if they cant persuade hardened drugs gangs to move on, purely by discussing the issues in a totally non threatening manner I presume, they could win voters over by the millions.

  • Mark

    DR,

    Sometimes its easier to persuade a scumbag drug dealer than it is to persaude a voter …..if you know what I mean .

  • Antoin Mac C.

    How can the Green Party,who are responsible alongside fianna fail again,pay unemployed lads 250 euro 4 6 hours work 4 one day every 4 years in the mist of an international recession?Because it’s election time stupid.How much are Fine Gael paying their election workers for one days work?
    Labour?….Gis A Job.Go on.Gis A job.250 euro for a days work for unemployed people translates to exactly about 62.50 euro a year.Gis A Job.

    Mark-‘Every time a drug addict opens a bottle of methadone,he opens a government seal.Every time a drug addict opens a packet of valium,he/she opens a government seal.Everytime a drug addict opens a packet of zimophaine he/she opens a government seal.Every time a drug addict opens a packet of diazepans,he/she opens a government seal.How much tax did the political class take from the head-shops?’

  • Antoin Mac C.

    Mark

    …do you tink it’s possible dat when a politican opens his mouth and says people before profit,that he really means profit before people…do u tink dat maybe,just maybe 99.9%
    of the politicans believe their own foolsolagy….that maybe,
    woe and behold,their actually all a professional class of liars….i’m just an honest amateur liar,liar…

  • Mark

    Antoin ,

    Yeah I agree with you re govt seals . That whole head shop farce was laughable but they’re all at it .

    I know one doctor who runs a methadone clinic and he refuses to actually detox his patients . He keeps them on a maintenance programme whether they need it or not . Some addicts want to get off the methadone but he keeps them on it for years in order to get his few quid from the govt . He was complaining that his pay was down 30% .

  • Mark

    Antoin ,

    Richie Boyd Barrett being a prime example , I used to knock around his neck of the woods back in the day .

    He had various different fads …… he was a mod , ska , punk ( I’m going back a bit here Antoin ) and he had his really heavie put on Dublin accent . You’d meet him with his puck mates and Richie would be givin it loads …. alright bud , gis a smoke fuc sake , will ye be on the hill on sunday … and we would just piss ourselves laughin ..

    He’d say mass now given half a chance ……

  • Antoin Mac C.

    Trots manifesto-Poor people are poor people,and we read books,daw.The rich are gettin fatter and the poor people are,well,poor,daw.Wats the trots strategy 4 the 450000 unemployed.Anybody see the intense debate last night on RTE,sinn feins eoin o’broin and pfps richard having a cosy comfortable debate wit 6 others about BINS.Who was the female politican who said she finds it deeply disturbing to have the green bin removed one week,and a grey bin the following week,mmmmmmmmmmm a member of the labour party???…….Strategy for the recession-Green bin tuesday.Grey bin wednesday.The brown bins can wait,because by the time their finished moving the crap around,we’ll all b STARVIN and can be reassured that we can ate da scraps straight from da masters bins.Daw.
    What branch of the real workers party dictated who got speaking time on ‘our’ national tv station RTE,for the last thirty odd years.Daw.Ned who?Ned Stapelton cumann???

  • Mr Crumlin

    Latest opinion poll from RTE.

    That poll: FG 35(-2), Labour 22(+3), FF 17(-1), SF 13(+1), Green 2(-1), Other 11 (-).