Was it right? Probably not.

On Friday Pete highlighted a poll carried out on behalf of TV3 and asked ‘Can this be right?’. The answer may well be no, as politics.ie carries the results of tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post poll that shows very different figures (the SBP poll is the most regular and respected one carried out in the south):

FG 31 (-2)
FF24,(nc)
LAB 23 (-4)
SF 10 (+2)
GR 3 (+1)
Oths 9 (+3)

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  • dublinsinnfeinsupporter

    Just as I predicted.

    One in the eye for it was sammy mcnally.

  • Oracle

    yeah Mark but the SBP one has got the Shiner percentage wrong numerous times… always over inflating their support

    well when you’re a cheer-leader i suppose you have to cheer

  • Nordie Northsider

    Why does every posting on party support south of the border become a discussion of SF’s electoral prospects – either predicting their demise or bigging up their chances? Even the most optimistic Shinner isn’t claiming a great breakthrough is in sight. In other words, the big issues here are how much damage Eamonn Gilmore is doing to Enda Kenny and how far can FF fall? SF is are not relevant this side of an election & subsequent coalition negotiations.

  • dublinsinnfeinsupporter

    The time for SF’s politics of fairness is now.

    Not in 6 years time … (as sammy mcnally poltificates with his out-of-date right-wing clap-trap).

  • Mark McGregor

    Oracle,

    Please pay attention. I’m not cheerleading for anyone.

  • slug

    Isn’t he referring to SBP not MMcG?

  • Mark McGregor

    That would be even worse. The poll is carried out by RedC using published methodology.

    Claiming it is spun would be hard to stand over.

  • slug

    I am not defending either stance 🙂

  • Pippakin

    If I understand the last several polls correctly Labour have been gaining steadily then along comes this one. Have I missed a couple of polls, or is this one the one that is against the flow.

  • White Horse

    Dublin SF Supporter

    re “the politics of fairness”

    Where is this coming from?

    Is this the fairness they pay lipservice to south of the border where it doesn’t matter while they fit in neatly with the right of unionism north of the border?

    Are SF not indebted to the right wing lunatic fringe north of the border, as witnessed in the businesses who paid their dues to the Provos in the Troubles and to the rural conservatives who matter more than the urban poor?

  • Neville Bagnall

    It follows the pattern Labour has shown in RedC Polls, big jump followed by consolidation at lower level, but above previous consolidation (10->15->14, 14->22->19->17, 17->24->22, 22->27->23)

    Add in that the opposition often drops a bit over the summer, and its more in line with expectations than the TV3 one.

    What remains unexplained (given the closeness of the polls) is the margin of difference. Even allowing for different methodologies.
    Roll on MRBI.

  • Pippakin

    Neville Bagnall

    The thing is it is such a difference, interesting though.

  • Oracle

    ou’re right slug,

    and Mark your wrong the SBP polls have over inflated SF in the past…. go check

  • Neville Bagnall

    Yeah, its huge. Problem is the Lansdowne swing isn’t reliable, as they apparently changed from interview to telepoll. So the +16 is meaningless since its comparing apples with oranges. Whether they’ve got more or less accurate remains to be seen.

    RedC also telepoll, have a more complicated methodology, but at least their methodology hasn’t changed, so the swing is likely to be more accurate. But given the upheaval in progress, their weighting may be out of date.

    MRBI (I think) interview and apparently also have a poll coming out in the IT (it was rumoured for this weekend and didn’t appear) They are also changing methodology as they were getting high Labour results too and accepted that their weighting was out of date. So their swing will irrelevant, but the levels are eagerly awaited.

    It will be interesting to see which companies are closer to each other. But it would also be just as interesting to get an explanation for the difference between the two telepolls. Can analysis methodology really make that much difference or was there sampling bias?

    Usually you would expect telepolls to have lower variability in sampling bias across companies (presuming random number selection). On the other hand if the RedC methodology modifies support levels by about 10% then that’s fairly stunning, even if it is correct.

  • Neville Bagnall

    I haven’t seen the Core vote for the Sept. RedC poll yet, but one thing worth noting about the Feb-Jun change is:

    RedC Core Vote
    Feb Jun
    FG 29 28 -1
    FF 22 20 -2
    LB 14 23 +9
    SF 7 7 0
    GN 5 2 -3

    Now, take a look at the Lansdowne core votes for Feb and Sept:

    Lansdowne Core Vote
    Feb Sept
    FG 29 25 -4
    FF 22 18 -4
    LB 16 29 +13
    SF 8 3 -5
    GN 2 2 0

    OK, so we’re comparing apples and oranges, and the SF change looks suspicious. But its easier to see how small methodology variation in coming to a core figure could be magnified in arriving at the headline figure.