We’re nearly up to fifty entries for the election prediction competition, and there is one common answer that is coming in that suggests to me that many entrants haven’t understood one of the questions.
You will have to answer all of the questions again though.
You will recall that it’s a two-part competition. The first part is very straightforward – guess the % share that each party will get from the votes cast along with a guess at the turnout figure.
The second one is where the problem lies. We said….
You have to guess which seat the main parties will enjoy the best / least worst swing since 2005**. In the case of the TUV, it’s just about guessing their best constituency % but if you think that a party will make no improvements, then pick the seat where they will suffer the least damage.
We want you to forecast the best local campaign relative to 2005, see?
Lots of you have said that West Belfast is where Sinn Féin will have their most positive / least negative swing. I suspect this is because some people think we’re asking simply about best performance in terms of % of the total votes cast. We’re not. Of course, if you actually do think that SF will improve on their 70% share in 2005 and enjoy a greater improvement there than anywhere else, then please accept my apologies and leave your previous answers to stand.
(Hint: To see the 2005 vote-shares, the BBC site is as good as any).