47% discount across the board (1st Tranche).
81bn worth of loans (in total).
Cost of NAMA haircut = 38bn (estimate).
Update Adding the haircut and the recapitalisation costs together doesn’t make sense, so I’ve removed that calculation.
Consensus view seems to be 32-33bn recapitalisation costs. Per Philip Lane at Irish Economy.
The current projection is that the State injection into the banking system will soon stand at 33 billion or so …
33 billion is about 22 percent of GDP (26 percent approx of GNP).
This is broadly in line with doomsayer Morgan Kelly’s estimate of 30bn in September 2009.
See also http://www.sluggerotoole.com/index.php/weblog/comments/nama-fit-for-purpose-the-banks-or-biffos-governmentGreenflag recommends
David McWilliams on the Keiser Report