If a Border Poll were held now, the pro-union lead has slipped again, according to the latest LucidTalk poll in today’s Belfast Telegraph.
The normal caveats apply about margin of error, which for this poll is 2.3%. For this reason, a 1% or 2% change may not be significant at all.
So it is better to look at the longer-term trend. This shows a 3% decrease in the pro-union level, with a 3% increase in the united Ireland response since the question was asked almost three years ago in early 2024.
The level of undecideds remains much the same.
The BT report also covers when or if voters would like a Border poll to be held. 69% of unionist voters do not want one held at all. Amongst nationalists the biggest proportion, 55%, would like to see one within 3 to 10 years. 32% would like it within 3 years.
The poll also finds that social and economic considerations are less likely to influence unionist voters, for 4 in 10 of whom their British identity is the most important factor in determining how they would vote. Undecideds are most likely be swayed by health and economy issues. Nationalists fall in between – with a higher proportion than unionists looking to see how day to day factors would affect them.
The BT report contains more detail and should be read by anyone who wants to explore more deeply.
There is one other point which should be kept in the back of the mind. This poll shows 1% of respondents saying that they would either spoil their vote or not vote at all. Clearly the non-voters in any actual poll would be much higher than this. Normally this is not an issue for polls on general election intentions because the levels of turnout tend to be similar from one election to another. In the case of a Border Poll the turnout could be significantly higher than in a Westminster or Assembly election – that could mean that a proportion of voters – those who normally skip elections – will not be caught by opinion polls.
For this reason I would advocate that Border (or indeed Rejoin EU) polls should be read for the trend which is concrete, while remembering the possible level of uncertainty about the actual numbers. I have no way of estimating this extra uncertainty factor – but would not expect it to be more than 2% or 3% either way (gut feel.)
Michael Hehir is a retired sales and marketing manager. He studied in Northern Ireland but now lives between England and Italy.
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