Rugby is still a game where the team that needs or wants it most can often overcome a team with greater experience or talents. But it’s also hard to sustain such intensity week in week out. With four tough matches in this November window, Farrell will be keen to manage the game time minutes of each member of his squad.
Ulster have struggled to maintain the required intensity for 80 minutes and have yet to win a URC match this season. Connacht have had some extraordinary highs (against Saracens) and lows against a second string Leinster side. Morale at Munster must be low with only one victory this season and only two players in the squad.
Coaches solve that conundrum by rotating their teams and building resilience and confidence in individual players away from their club environment. They watch out for who is really keen and flying in training. Often its not the established players after a hard match who are still recovering and going through the motions. It’s the fringe players and young guns out to establish a place in the first choice matchday XXIII.
Ireland have come off a tough battle with Argentina with quite a few injuries, knocks and bruises. An even tougher test against South Africa awaits in 12 days’ time. Farrell needs a starting XV who are fully focused on the next match against Fiji and who have a lot to play for. We don’t need to play anyone nursing an injury or minding themselves ahead of the main test. That alone rules out Jansen, Sheehan, Van Der Flier, Hansen and Baloucoune.
This is not to disrespect Fiji in any way, shape, or form. In fact, it is respecting them by fielding a team that is 100% focused on the immediate task in hand. If you are not good enough to play serious test rugby, you shouldn’t be in the international squad in the first place. Farrell needs to build more depth with the World Cup in mind. Losing our top four No. 8’s (Doris, Conan, Jansen, and Bryn Ward) to injury only emphasises that point. (And yet Max Deegan can’t even make the “A” squad and lined out for Lansdowne against Clontarf in the AIL last week-end! I wonder if he has had “words” with Farrell).
And so it is that I would propose making no less than fifteen changes to our starting team for the Fiji test. Our first XV have nothing to gain and much to lose by getting injured or playing with reduced intensity a week after a good performance against Argentina. The glitches in that performance can be better ironed out in training than showing our hand completely to South Africa. The return of Porter and Baird means our set piece is in much better shape than it was against South Africa 12 months ago in any case.
Of course, a completely changed team could also lose to what is expected to be a full strength Fiji side, damaging our world ranking and standing ahead of the finals week-end in Twickenham in three weeks’ time. That is a risk we must take. Farrell is secure enough in his position to take that hit should it arise. But better to learn who among his back-up players can and cannot step up to the plate now rather than at the World Cup itself. This is his last chance to cast the net much more widely, and there are quite a few who deserve a chance to show what they can do in test rugby.
So, with 15 changes to the starting team, my selection would be:
- O’Toole
- Kelleher
- Illo
- Ryan
- Murray
- Prendergast
- McCann
- McNabney
- Gibson-Park
- Frawley
- Stockdale
- Aki
- Osborne
- Tommy O’Brien
- Jimmy O’Brien
- Stewart
- Bohan
- Clarkson
- McCarthy
- Timoney
- Doak
- Bensen
- Henshaw
Of course, Farrell is a conservative selector and I doubt he will make changes on quite this scale. But there is also quite a lot of experience on the above bench should things not go to plan as the second half progresses.The above selection would ensure that everyone in the original squad gets to see some gametime, including new caps McNabney, Bensen, and late squad addition McCann.
Bensen would get to play with his regular partner, Doak, who could also take some of the pressure off him by taking on the goal kicking duties. McNabney and McCann would get to make their debuts side by side knowing each others game intimately, and with the experienced Prendergast to provide some advice and guidance.
Ireland gained a lot from playing a much changed team for their second match against Japan last July, giving debuts to Jansen, Bohan, Illo and Bryn Ward and starting Frawley at 10 for the first time. That investment paid off handsomely in that match and since, and a good performance by the above team against Fiji will be a great boost to the whole squad ahead of a daunting match against South Africa next up.
That match against South Africa will define the success of this November window for Ireland. A win could secure an appearance against the top seeded southern hemisphere team in the Grand Final in Twickenham. I suggest that we should do everything we can to ensure our best XV are well rested and recovered from the rigours of the match against Argentina. If that entails taking a risk against Fiji, then so be it.
Frank Schnittger is the author of Sovereignty 2040, a future history of how Irish re-unification might work out. He has worked in business in Dublin and London and, on a voluntary basis, for charities in community development, education, restorative justice and addiction services.
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