Sun poll calls a strong No sentiment against Lisbon…

Slugger has just had sight of some polling figures, done by Gael Poll for tomorrow’s Irish Sun that suggests that big soft ‘don’t know’ may not be as soft as the Irish Times polling has been suggesting. On a nation wide sample of 1500 and in answer to some pretty straightforward questions, the figures they get are 59% NO ‘V’ 41% YES. Now those are flat figures, no weighting and the methodology so far as we can tell is pretty unconventional… But…

Update: Ladbrokes now only 7/2 NO.

The last Gael Poll which was published in the Irish Sun (June 4th 2008) accurately predicted that the Lisbon Treaty would be defeated by a margin of 54 % for the No side versus 46% for Yes campaigners. On the day of the count -which took place nine days later- the actual result was 53.4% No and 46.6 % Yes.

Talking to both yes and no camps, we reckon it’s much, much closer than that… In fact, it looks like there is still a slight advantage to the YES camp… Time will tell whether this survey is indicating another ‘black swan’, or a nasty swerve ball to try and put the opposition off their stride… 10 days until the end, when the plain people of Ireland get to pronounce on the fate of the Lisbon Treaty…

Let’s hope they are not mistaken whichever way it falls…


  • tipp


    I voted yes last time but this time it’s NO as a result is a result.

    UKIP cannot be wrong about everything, and if the Sunday Independent is making yes compulsory, NO is the way to go.

  • steve

    The EU is a Dictatorship, there are no positives about being in a Dictatorship.

    Myth of the week
    Posted by Richard Tuesday, June 22, 2004

    The European Union is democratically controlled

    Part I – The Council of Ministers

    In answer to the charge that “Europe is undemocratic and that power lies with unelected, faceless bureaucrats,” the UK Representation of the European Commission is fond of reminding us that

    The most powerful decision-making body, the Council of Ministers, is responsible through its members to parliaments and electorates in every EU country.

    Furthermore, it states, “Each country decides how to make its ministers accountable.” ref UKREC.

    Thus, the Commission effectively argues, because Council members are responsible to their electorates, the European Union is democratically controlled. (It goes on then to describe the role of the European Parliament – we will deal with that in Part II of this piece.)

    In order to explode this particular myth – that the Council somehow adds democratic legitimacy to the European Union – we simply need to look at what the Council is, and what it does.

    Firstly, the Council itself. In fact there are many “Councils” each dealing with specific policy areas – like environment, transport, fisheries, agriculture, etc. Their members are the sectoral ministers from the member states, each council comprising the same number of ministers as there are member states.

    So what do they do?

    The answer to that is quite simple – they “legislate”. That is, they receive proposals from the unelected Commission, asking them to take powers and/or responsibilities from their member state governments (or to impose obligations on their citizens).

    They then turn these proposals into laws, giving the Commission the powers it asks for – often acting by qualified majority voting – thereby depriving their own governments (and/or citizens) of power.

    That’s it.

    From then on, the Commission having been given the power, it keeps it, to exercise as it thinks fit. The Council has no further part to play in the process, unless or until the Commission comes back to ask it to amend or extend those powers (or both).

    Does the Council maintain an oversight over how those powers are exercised? No.

    Has the Council any power to call the Commission to account over the way it uses its powers? No.

    Can the Council remove or modify those powers, if it is unsatisfied with the way the Commission is performing? No.

    Does the Council even have the power to ask the Commission for information on its performance? Er… No.

    So what is the Council?

    In effect, it is a transfer station. On the basis of proposals from the Commission, it handles the process of taking powers from member states, packaging them up and shovelling them into the Commission, for them never to be returned.

    Does it ask the electorate in advance – through an election manifesto – what powers it should hand over? No.

    And is any record kept of which particular ministers vote for what, so that they can be taken to task by their electorates, if they vote the wrong way? No.

    That’s democratic?

  • Mick Fealty

    And that has what precisely to do with public sentiment in Ireland?

  • DerTer

    Spot on – thank you Mick, thank you so much!

  • Dictatorship?

    Moynihan’s law.

    It’s nothing to do with public sentiment anywhere Mick. It’s a cut-and-paste green ink rant.

  • RepublicanStones

    Postal votes arrived today, accompanied with a lovely litte booklet outlining the main features of the 28th amendment.

    “The proposed amendment would-

    (a) affirm Ireland’s commitment to the European Union,

    (b) enable Ireland to ratify the treaty of Lisbon and to be a member of the European Union established by that Treaty,

    (c) update the provisions of the Constitution that will ensure legal compatibility between Irish law and the law of the European Union,

    (d) allow Ireland to agree to certain measure under the treaties being amended by the treaty of Lisbon, subject to prior approval of both houses of the Orieacthas, and

    (e) restate the prohibition on Ireland joining any European common defence arrangment,”

    The booklet then goes on the quote the subsections which are going to be inserted in ‘section 4 of Article 29 of the Constitution’

    However towards the back, when we get to the deletions –

    ” (b) to delete the following text from the first sentence of subsection 3 of section 4 of article 29 of the constitution:

    ‘the european council and steel community (established by Treaty signed at Paris on the 18th day of April, 1951), the European Economic Community (established by treaty signed at Rome on the 25th day of March, 1957)and’,

    (c) to delete the second sentence of said subsection 3, and

    (d) to delete subsections 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 of section 4 of Article 28 of the Constitution.”

    It appears that the booklet, quotes in full the insertions, but only quotes one deletion and informs us of the location of the rest.

  • Sam Thompson

    i hope ireland reject – im a unionist, but believe that if the irish want their independence then they ought not to fritter it away to the EU, but assert themselves without abandoning their hard won freedoms

  • This is excellent news. I had almost lost hope. Once again, if it’s defeated, the Irish blogosphere, which undermines the ability of the press to dictate the limits of political debate, will have been decisive – at least with the youth vote. But it is ironic that in this debate, we have British politicians and Unionist defending Irish independence, while Southern Irish politicians are trying to give it away.

    Lisbon is a conspiracy by the elites to bring in cheap labour and to undermine Irish pay and conditions. Perhaps the referendum wording, sending with the polling-cards in recent days has awoken the Irish people to the provisions on the Schengen Agreement (which the Govt/Oireachtas is empowered to join by a yes vote) which would abolish passport checks at Immigration at Irish ports/airports. And perhaps the provisions of Paragraph 7(iii) allowing the abolition of the optout from Justice and Home Affairs and the common immigration policy was a factor too. And while I was a fan, with friends like Michael McDowell who needs enemies….

  • dewi

    Political Betting think it might be a hoax?

  • A Libertas source told me the source was Tom Prendeville.

  • Newstalk are not mentioning it on “Breakfast”. Why day is this poll supposed to be released?

  • Declan

    Is this Poll a hoax?

    I see no reference to it anywhere in media

    The polling company “Gael Poll” do not appear to exist (no website, address, phone.. nothing)

  • Mick Fealty

    Not quite a hoax, but a case of this blogger falling asleep at the wheel… Just about to blog it…

  • Zoonpol

    I suppose it just comes down one simple question: will it make the man on the street richer or poorer.

  • Greenflag

    The SUN ????

    Thick , lurid and thoroughly absorbent . Can be used as an ersatz for diaper filling if parents find themselves in a quandary at 2.00 am and the kid has crapped a mountain 😉

    Yes it does comes down to one question . How big will the Yes majority be . The economic world has changed more in the last year and there’s more yet to come .

    Vote Yes for a European future and never mind the gobshites who want to turn the clock back or turn Ireland into an Albania or worse .

    And no it’s not about supporting the present Government . It’s about trusting Angela Merkel and that little bollix Sarkozy and frankly they’ve both done a better job in current circumstances than any of the anglophone countries bar perhaps Canada and the USA .

    And we need to join with the UK in NATO and give up this ridiculous ‘neutrality’ fiasco .