Slugger has just had sight of some polling figures, done by Gael Poll for tomorrow’s Irish Sun that suggests that big soft ‘don’t know’ may not be as soft as the Irish Times polling has been suggesting. On a nation wide sample of 1500 and in answer to some pretty straightforward questions, the figures they get are 59% NO ‘V’ 41% YES. Now those are flat figures, no weighting and the methodology so far as we can tell is pretty unconventional… But…
Update: Ladbrokes now only 7/2 NO.
The last Gael Poll which was published in the Irish Sun (June 4th 2008) accurately predicted that the Lisbon Treaty would be defeated by a margin of 54 % for the No side versus 46% for Yes campaigners. On the day of the count -which took place nine days later- the actual result was 53.4% No and 46.6 % Yes.
Talking to both yes and no camps, we reckon it’s much, much closer than that… In fact, it looks like there is still a slight advantage to the YES camp… Time will tell whether this survey is indicating another ‘black swan’, or a nasty swerve ball to try and put the opposition off their stride… 10 days until the end, when the plain people of Ireland get to pronounce on the fate of the Lisbon Treaty…
Let’s hope they are not mistaken whichever way it falls…
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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