The guessing game

As we expect a Westminster election next Spring most of the Parties are keeping their selections under their hats. The SDLP in Lagan Valley have yet to choose but the name Brian Heading again is jumping around. Heading is a councillor in Lisburn and has been since 2004 through co-option but was elected in 2005.

It is expected that most sitting MP’s will stand again. However questions surround sitting MP’s Eddie McGrady (South Down) (but I have heard whispers that he intends to stand again), Peter Robinson (East Belfast) and Ian Paisley (North Antrim).

South Belfast and Fermanagh South Tyrone will be interesting yet again. It would be expected that with two Unionist candidates (at least) the seat will be retained by Nationalist MP’s Gildernew and McDonnell.

It will be interesting who the UUP, or now Conservatives and Unionists put up for South Belfast, Lagan Valley, Strangford, Upper Bann and North Antrim. I suspect that with the new coalition and system of selection there will be some new faces.

As for the SDLP selection of candidates, other than those sitting, my money would go on the MLA’s however some constituencies don’t have MLA’s, like Lagan Valley.

For previous elections see ARK.

Anyone who wants to add any names please do so below.

  • Bog Trotter
  • Cap’n Scooby

    What are the odds on ‘Dame’ Sylvia Hermon running as an Independent incumbent rather than as a UCUNF stuffed suit?

  • Braveheart

    Will Iris be running in Strangford????

  • Bog Trotter

    I hear bill mckendry might run for ucunf in strangford? You heard that braveheart?

  • Cap’n Scooby

    She will provided she isn’t sabotaged by the ‘campaign of prominent gay people in the media and other areas ‘ which she has claimed conspires against her –

  • nemesis

    ‘elequent’ is spelt with an ‘o’, bog trotter.

  • Bog Trotter



  • Mark McGreg

    When Heading couldn’t get the nod over a blow-in like Farrell in 2007 I’d be surprised to see him getting selected ahead of a rising star, in SDLP terms anyhow, like young McDermott.

  • Mark McGreg

    and iirc word on the street was Heading even refused to canvass in LV in 2007.

  • DR

    did you not mean Elegent?

  • DR

    Back to the subject however, are there many Conservatives out there likely to be chosen instead of the UUP nomination? I persume there will have to be some to show it is a partnership.

  • Mark McGreg

    Could be an interesting enough election but it would be dependent on where the TUV run and how Allister’s vote holds up for much weaker candidates.

    Potentially the DUP risk losing four seats – North Belfast, South Antrim, East Derry, Upper Bann.

    North Down depends on what Hermon decides.

    The SDLP could lose South Belfast and at a push South Down but given Unionist splits and the awful Ruane this is pretty unlikely.

    Potential for UUP gains and one for SF.

  • Drumlins Rock

    this sorta deserves a thread of its own, but if DC gets his way and over 10% of MPs go, how many will NI get the next time? will it be 2 less at 16, or more off because we have devolved, I guess they will want the boundaries to closer reflect the new council too at that stage, and this will then of course effect the Assembly seats, could be an easy way of reducing them, if enough seats go.

  • Bond, James Bond

    Potential for UUP gains and one for SF.
    Posted by Mark McGreg on Sep 09, 2009 @ 05:40 PM

    Doubt it, looking at dromore and the Euro election, on a first past the post the UUP will trail the DUP even with the TUV in the field, the only ones to gain would be nationalists

  • alan56

    Will be interesting to see the carve up between UUP and Conservative members when it comes to choosing candidates. Sure to be surprises

  • braveheart

    Bog trotter, you are well informed. Informed sources predict him to be a good candidate for the new partnership and can win Strangford. Definitely a new face!!!!!

  • Pancho

    Upper Bann under threat? As much as I don’t like it, big Davy Simpson is going nowhere.

  • DR

    Does anyone know if SF have a policy on double jobbing? as much as i dont like having a SF MP I would still prefer to have someone arguing our case in London, if not on the floor of the commons at least in the corridors of power, exectutive ministers cant do that. A prime example would have been the recent pasport proposals, it was left up to a few UUP Lords to get it blocked, they might not like it but many decisions effecting us are made over there. If they think that still isnt a big enough job they could send them down to Dublin to lobby on cross border issues and pretend they are TDs.

  • elvis parker

    Pancho Simpson is in Trouble – from TUV on one side and Conservatives and Unionists on the other.
    Apparently he told voters at the last election that the DUP would enter government with Sinn Fein over ‘his dead body’

  • Heading would be a good one in Lagan Valley. One of the few SDLP types it’s possible to like.

  • The Hack

    Economics .
    Are things really that bad

  • realpolitic

    Hard to see Conservatives putting up in many of the 18 constituencies it was only in North Down where they showed any enthusiasm canvassing in the Euro election and it is of course where the bulk of their members live.After all it is the constituency most like Surrey and which they nearly won in 1992.Sylvia would romp it with the extra impact of the Conservative and Unionist label and she could even be in the cabinet what’s holding her back,even Alliance voters are really closet Conservatives in North Down who want real Surrey politics and any sensible ticket will do to stop the DUP here.Strangford is winnable for the C&Us; with the collapse of the DUP vote in a low turnout in June so far only McKendry has declared an interest but would expect some big guns to be interested here as DUP are quite exposed.Mc Kendry a real business man masterminded a brilliant Euro campaign,knows the area and is popular hard to see an outside new face commanding support of the local activists though they all loved John Taylor but would need to be even bigger and better to work.

  • hillsider

    Does it really matter much who the candidates are? I’ll predict one seat only to change hands.

    North Down: elected Hermon, S. Ind U gain from UCUNF.

  • elvis parker

    ‘Hard to see Conservatives putting up in many of the 18 constituencies’ ??? There will be no Conservative candidates and no UUP candidates there will be 18 Conservative and Unionist candidates who will all take the Conservative Whip if elected

    Hillsider who are wrong in general but particularly with regard to Nth Down.
    One it would not be a GAIN from theConservatives IF Hermon was to win as an Ind. She is a Labour supporter.
    Two she aint going to win

  • anon

    Heading would be a good one in Lagan Valley. One of the few SDLP types it’s possible to like.

    Posted by Ben Archibald on Sep 10, 2009 @ 03:59 PM