Irish Times polling figures

In the Irish Times Stephen Collins looks at the results of what seems to have been some fairly rigorous polling. [“The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday of this week among a representative sample of 2,000 voters. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 500 people in each of the four Euro constituencies. The margin of error is 2 per cent.”] Overall party performances here. And Cian has more EU details at Irish Election. But of particular interest may be the figures for the Dublin EU constituency.

In Dublin, Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael leads the field with 28 per cent [+2], followed by Proinsias De Rossa of the Labour Party with 25 per cent [+4]. There is a big gap between them and the chasing field, which is led by Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin, on 11 per cent [-3], followed by Eoin Ryan and Joe Higgins on 9 per cent each [-2 and +2 respectively]. Deirdre De Búrca of the Greens is next on 6 per cent, followed by former Green Patricia McKenna, who has slipped back to 5 per cent, the same as Eibhlín Byrne of Fianna Fáil. Caroline Simons of Libertas is on 2 per cent. The transfers from the weaker candidates will determine who wins the three-way contest for the final seat.

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  • Greenflag

    Eoin Ryan (FF ) will be chewing on finger nails this time assuming he’s any left by now . De Rossa , Mitchell and McDonald . Green transfers might just save Ryan what will be an embarassing result anyway 🙁

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Mary Lou slight favourite with Paddy Power for third seat – may do well from female candidates transfers. Good result for SF if she scrapes in.

  • Crow

    Has there been any published poll for Northern Ireland. Is it too cost prohibitive for the Belfast media?

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Crow,

    Times like these Paddy Power is your only man.

    See analysis of this below.
    http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com

  • Cynic

    Did any of you hear Mrs Dodds on Talkback yesterday. She was being questioned in the Coleraine Studio. I never heard a more stiff and rehearsed performance by any mainline political candidate in my life. She has a string of mantra’s that she uses no matter what the question actually is. She sounded like she had been told to ignore the questions as far as possible and just push the propaganda. She keeps talking about wanting to win this election for Unionism. If she said it once she said it twenty times in 30 minutes. What the feck does winning this election for Unionism mean? Could someone from Dundela please try to enlighten me? She poured out tons of sugar when praising the European record of Ian Senior and said that she was privileged to be following in his footsteps. It sounded like the past four years of European stewardship by Jimbo hadn’t happened. I notice that they are seeking all sorts of angles to attack Alister with, expenses etc, but they haven’t actually tried to complain about his record as an MEP. His record stands the test when set against the other two MEP’s and certainly outshines the voting record of Ian. It was really funny as Mrs Dodds struggled for as many ways as possible not to mention Alister by name. It reminded me of the competition of yes or no. Mention either and you got the gong! Mrs Dodds finally got the gong when she actually said his name when she started to get angry. By the way that when you should listen carefully to any politican for that’s when you get an insight into the real person and not the public cardboard cut out image! I think that she is a really weak candidate who is way out of her depth.

  • Question Mark Question Mark

    Yes cynic but what about that really bad thing what Jim Allister done?

  • Mack

    I find it unbelievable that FF put up two candidates in the first place. It’s clear they’ll struggle to win the third seat. Mary Lou MacDonald and Joe Higgins were both on Vincent Brown a week or so a go. Mary Lou was far from convincing when asked would she run for the Dail, Joe Higgins honesty on the matter was far more impressive. There is a Green and ex-Green floating around there too. Combined they’d be up around the same percentage as the others. Patricia McKenna will probably get transfers from Caroline Simons too.

  • I feel abused

    Here’s something that bothers me quite a lot. While the drumcree protest was going on I was arrested and charged because a Catholic who lived near me said I had threw a log through his front window. I never did anything of the sort, but I was arrested and charged over this, simply because he named me.

    Eventually when the DPP reviewed the case I was released and all charges were dropped, but when I asked my solicitor what I could do about my case, he simply said, unless the person who blamed you has loads of money, its not worth getting into. He told me to find out if the person who blamed me had any money, if not, don’t bother.

    It has been 10 years since this has happened and I’m still effected by it. The person who blamed me for those wrongs is still walking about, yet I can’t do anything about it.

    Can anyone help?

  • Mack

    I feel abused o – He has a house, there’s been a property boom. Sue him.

  • I feel abused

    Mack, scumbag doesn’t own anything. He’s a scrounger who’s interests involve making money with assholes who claim UDA membership

  • A Sunday Business Post mole on politics.ie is claiming his newspaper is set to suppress regional-figures from tomorrow’s Red C poll on the euro-election, which place Declan Ganley on 16% in Northwest. Apparently, the newspaper will acknowledge the swing, but not it’s scale. Pressure needs to be brought to bear on the newspaper, in the interests of transparency and with due consideration of the gravity of the issues at stake (including the foremost question of the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty), to follow its standard practice with the previous euro-election polls this year by releasing the regional-breakdown. A failure to do so, especially in the context of a critique of Ganley’s stance on neutrality in tomorrow’s newspaper, can only call into question the impartiality of the publication.

  • I feel abused

    I was asked by another paramilitary organisation if I wanted the said scumbag dealt with, but I said no.

    Can anyone help me in pursuing the matter legally?

  • I feel abused

    did the RUC have the right to charge me when it was simply his word against mine?

  • I feel abused

    does anyone have any legal experience?

    How is it possible for someone to blame an individual for criminal damage and attempted murder, yet be exempt from prosecution?

    Please help as my solicitor is for fuck all.

  • circles

    Vote Green in this election Abused. Thats about all you can do :o)

  • dunreavynomore

    i feel abused just reading ‘i feel abused’s thread derailing.

  • Pete Baker

    Greenflag and Sammy Mac

    If they manage to nurse her across the line I’m sure there will be sighs of relief within Sinn Féin.

    But given the concentration of party resources on her campaign the current, diminishing, 11% is far from being a good result. And still some distance from securing a below quota seat.

    Transfers will decide and Sinn Féin don’t have a good record on that front.

    And MacLochlainn’s hopes clearly failed the moment he stepped outside of Donegal – Too Northern for Ireland.

    IFA

    Anonymous comments here are going to achieve nothing. If you need legal advice seek it in an appropriate forum.

  • guillaume

    -I feel abused:
    Personally, I’d tell the police that he just threw a log through my window.

  • I can’t see Higgins taking the seat. And I reckon FF are holding more support than people want to admit. But it does seem now that there is a good chance of them losing the seat. I agree with Pete that if McDonald isn’t re-elected it will be a major blow to her party in the south, and its hopes of building momentum towards the next general election.

  • ricky tiky

    Have the Shinners any chance in Donegal with the boul’ Pearse?

  • If Labour, SF, SP and possibly the greens had joined together in a progressive electoral alliance how would this poll and if it is reliable the election come out?

  • Pete Baker

    MickH

    Well, if there were only three candidates, all three would get elected.

    But, like your scenario, it ain’t going to happen.

  • A guaranteed seat Mick I’d have thought, but not at all possible with the Greens in government with FF. They are unlikely to be trusted to the same extent again.

  • Plus, like Pete says, too many Dáil electoral interests at stake.

  • Mack

    Proinsias de Rossa of Labour is a shoe-in for one of the seats anyway. As is Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael. In normal times you’d expect FF too take the other seat. Can’t understand what made them think there was two seats in it for them..

  • Greenflag

    pete baker ,

    ‘Transfers will decide and Sinn Féin don’t have a good record on that front.’

    That’s true but that was then . FF are running two candidates to maximize their vote as they too are not expecting as many transfers as they might have a few years ago . They are probably lucky to be in coalition with the GP for this election. I expect McDonald will do better than expected not because of any widespread conversion to SF economic policies but because there’s a significant number of voters who while they may feel like lashing out at FF will not be able to bring themselves to vote for FG . They’ll plump for Labour , the GP , SF and SP probably in that order of preference imo.

    mick hall,

    ‘If Labour, SF, SP and possibly the greens had joined together in a progressive electoral alliance how would this poll and if it is reliable the election come out? ‘

    Interesting spec but not much different I’d say -there are at max 2 out of the 4 seats that would go to such an alliance . 3 of 4 ? No way -FF are in bad shape this time out but not that bad.

  • There’s only three seats now Greenflag though right?

  • redhugh78

    How would it be a disaster for Sf if they don’t win a seat in Dublin?they won the fiourth seat last time, this time there’s only 3 seats.
    confused.com

  • It wouldn’t be a disaster, but it would be a setback. McDonald has been made the effective southern figurehead, and to lose two elections in a row would damage her credibility I think when they have been pushing her so heavily. Outside the Dáil and outside the European Parliament, she is a much less credible figure.

  • Ricky tiky, Doherty isn’t the SF candidate in Northwest this time – it’s Cllr Padraig McLochlainn of Buncrana.

  • From today’s Sunday Business Post Red C poll (pg.9). Libertas is now level in the euro-elections with the Greens on 4%, with almost all of it for Declan Ganley (they are only running in East, Dublin and NW). This suggests if they ran in a General Election in future, they might be expected to get much of the old PD-vote. Food for thought if they win seats in the euros. Surprisingly, Toirease Ferris appears more likely to take a seat in South than Mary Lou is to keep her seat in Dublin, though Eoin Ryan’s seat is described as being “in jeopardy” (pg.8).

    It appears from Pg 9 that it is Harkin’s seat in most danger from Ganley in NW, while Liam Aylward surprisingly seems in danger in East:

    “Liam Aylward is still in with a fighting chance for the third seat in the East constituency…Libertas support does appear to be on an upward trend…Almost all of this support is for the party’s founder, Declan Ganley, who, based on the poll’s constituency-figures, could yet be in with a shout to take a seat in the North West. This is a significant gain in two weeks and means he is a real threat to Gallagher, O’Reilly and Independent Marian Harkin…Harkin does remain in the running for a seat in the North West constituency, but could suffer at the hands of Libertas.”

    Also, the figures for the locals and the euros differentiate as follows:

    FF: 20%
    FG 32%
    Labour 17%
    SF 10%
    Greens 4%
    Ind 17%

    Euros:
    FF: 20%
    FG: 34%
    Labour: 14%
    SF: 9%
    Greens: 4%
    Libertas: 4%
    Ind 15%

  • Greenflag

    garibaldi,

    ‘There’s only three seats now Greenflag though right? ‘

    That’s why Ryan is chewing on finger nails . In normal circumstances in a three seater it would be 1 FF, 1 FG , 1 Labour . Given the present climate what was speculated as a ‘progressive alliance ‘ could take 2 of 3 with FG winning the third seat at the expense of FF . Could it happen anyway i.e FF losing out . Short answer yes .

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    re. SF

    If they come third in Dublin beating FF – with the devious use of transfers or otherwise – it would be a remarkable result – completely unthinkable 2 years ago.

    FT,

    “Toirease Ferris appears more likely to take a seat in South than Mary Lou is to keep her seat in Dublin”

    Dont think so – if we can use our top polster Paddy Power – Mary Lou is 3nd favourite at 8/15 and Toirease is 5th favourite at 8/1.

  • Polls are a better barometer than odds, Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit. Paddy Power also had a yes vote to Lisbon on 1-5 and paid out – to both sides in the event.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    FT,

    the Irish Times poll – from the previous day – had May Lou in third place as well – that is obviously a main driver of the betting.

    Are you saying that the poll says Ferris is third? If so I might get some money on the quareone at 8/1.

    … SF seem to show up better at the bookies and worse in polls than at the election itself.

  • Leaving aside the practicalities and posibilities, as some of you guys are numbers crunchers, do you feel it would be to the electoral advantage of Labour to enter into a progressive electoral alliance with SF, SP and possibly the Greens?

  • kensei

    But given the concentration of party resources on her campaign the current, diminishing, 11% is far from being a good result. And still some distance from securing a below quota seat.

    Perhaps I have been spoiled by 538, but you require more than a single data point to make any kind of authoritative statement, Pete. Error margins would also help. You do this every time. Stop abusing Maths.

    As it is, my educated guess is that 14% was an outlier. SF are overall at 8% at this poll, where they have been exactly for the past 3 years. It may be “a bad result” but where is the catalyst for any sort of change. It is clear the downturn hasn’t benefited them much. As and until there is a serious change of policies, a serious change in leadership or the emergence of not just a good candidate, but an unreal one they will remain there. Why anyone believes that will change regardless of how much money they use on TV spend is beyond me.

    Whether they keep their seat is entirely down to transfers. And that depends on how much voters want to punish FF. If I was a betting man, I’d stick a few quid on them losing it.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    kensei,

    “It is clear the downturn hasn’t benefited them much”

    If they win the third seat the above statement will not look too clever. As mentioned above, the idea that SF could beat FF in the Capital city would have been unthinkable 2 years ago.

    If that type of result can be achieved then they are in a very strong position in terms of political credibility – as the 3rd party in Dublin and ahead of FF – and means that they could siginificantly imporove on their Dail seats.

    The arguement, siginificantly enhanced by Grizzly’s poor pre-election TV debate, that SF dont do economics, has been now been undermined by the realistation, based on the behaviour of the banks and the collapse in house prices, that they probably do economics better than both FF or FG.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit, the regional-breakdown for the Red C poll hasn’t been published, but a source tells me she’s in between Alan Kelly and Kathy Sinnott (prob 4th in 1st preferences but transfers could decide it). I’m also told that 30% of the entire increase in the SF vote in the euro-election poll (2%) is going directly to Ferris.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    FT,

    re. % impreovment.

    but quareone No2 – ie Ferris is coming from next to nowhere – thats why MLM has a far greater chance- if she was between those 2 quarepeople that would mean PP (Papist Predictor) would be out by a factor of 16. Ferris odss have actually lengthend from 7/1 to 8/1 in last few weeks.

    I would disrespectfully suggest that your ‘source’ is not to be replied upon – but given odds of 8/1 it might be worth a few Northern Bank Notes.

  • Mack

    It was Sammy McNally What done it

    The arguement, siginificantly enhanced by Grizzly’s poor pre-election TV debate, that SF dont do economics, has been now been undermined by the realistation, based on the behaviour of the banks and the collapse in house prices, that they probably do economics better than both FF or FG.

    That’s fantasy Sammy, there has been no such epiphany. Fine Gael are storming ahead at the polls, most of the ‘it’s a property bubble, will end in a disaster’ crowd are backing them. George Lee is even a candidate ffs..

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    People are voting for FG – NOT because they believe that FG WOULD have done better than FF but because they dont like FF – who are being blamed as the incumbents- and probably as a belated repsonse to their corruption which Berty suggested the plain people of Ireland wait until after the election as he did his Father-Tedesque crying act on the telly BEFORE deciding his and his partys honesty.

    FG said feck all before the election about house prices or regulation – except about stampduty – and that was for the WRONG reason. The point is SF ‘bad’ economics looks much better after the ‘good’ economics of the right (FF/FG) effectively bankrupted the country. No amount of economic/withdoctoring/spinning you like to indulge in from time to time is going to change the fact that the economics of the unregulated crazy right wing in power (and in opposition) has now been totally debunked.

    Any debate between FF and FG on the economic situation illustrates this point with FF simply asking FG why they didnt tell us we were on the road to disaster – and is followed by Enda or some other useless fecker trying to change the subject.

    The Plain people of Ireland palinly want FFs blood.

  • kensei

    Sammy

    If that type of result can be achieved then they are in a very strong position in terms of political credibility – as the 3rd party in Dublin and ahead of FF – and means that they could siginificantly imporove on their Dail seats.

    No, if they retain their seat they’ll get a temporary boost but it would a huge, monumental mistake to think fundamentals have changed. A protest vote may enable them to gain a Dail seat or two but given the rest of shake up they’ll still be far from government, which is where they really need to be if they want to make any further progress in the South; if the numbers fell for them to be a coalition and the sky didn’t fall in because of that, I think their transfer situation would be greatly helped.

    The arguement, siginificantly enhanced by Grizzly’s poor pre-election TV debate, that SF dont do economics, has been now been undermined by the realistation, based on the behaviour of the banks and the collapse in house prices, that they probably do economics better than both FF or FG

    SF don’t do economics. They still don’t. They are picking up a protest vote. There is plenty of thinking and credible proposals to be made on the left wing. If SF were making any, they’d be doing significantly better. Proclaiming you were right all along was in my mind a big mistake.

  • kensei

    Sammy

    Sorry to this

    They are picking up a protest vote

    add

    “and not much of one at that.”

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    kensei,

    “SF don’t do economics. ”

    Have you been following the fortunes of ROI economy over the last year or so – the people who ridiculed SFs economics have bankrupted the country in case you didnt spot that.

    FF and FG “do economics” but that would be very, very bad economics.

    It would be interesting to re-visit the pre-election debate – I wonder if it is on the web anywhere.

  • Greenflag

    kensei ,

    ‘There is plenty of thinking and credible proposals to be made on the left wing.’

    There are .

    ‘ If SF were making any, they’d be doing significantly better’

    Agree . Problem being the ‘left wing’ is somewhat crowded these days what with Labour , SP , Independents ,GP etc . Playing very outside left means not geting very much ball . The days of ‘winging ‘ it are for now over and it looks like SF may have to wait for both the inside left and centre left to leave the pitch before they can hope to to avoid being left outside ? Should be the one of the closest Euro election results on the island bar NI’s .

  • kensei

    Sammy

    Have you been following the fortunes of ROI economy over the last year or so – the people who ridiculed SFs economics have bankrupted the country in case you didnt spot that.

    Which does not imply that doing the opposite is the right way to go.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    kensei,

    It might suggest a think about the economic direction to take (e.g. continually bailing out the banks)- and it certainly does suggest that comments like “SF don’t do economics” need to be seen in the context that their larger rivals dont “do” them either – that is “do” them properly.

  • Mack

    Sammy –

    The country is only potentially bankrupted by the banking guarantee – a Fianna Fail innovation and a corruption of free market economics. Other than that the fiscal crises is a result of lowering taxes by too much (right wing policies) and increasing public spending too much via benchmarking and the like (left wing policies) due to a fundamental misreading of the Irish property market. It’s a political hot potato, but certainly manageable if tough decisions could be taken.

    Your assertion that FG’s policy on stamp duty at the last election was for the wrong reason (presumably to kick start the housing market) isn’t accurate. They did it because it is a harsh and unfair tax – stamp duty rates were (and to some degree still are) penal. It was a vote winner for young families looking to purchase their first home.

    There has been no discernable swing to SF, but a significant one to FG, and from speaking to people at for some it is because they prefer their economic policies. FF did pretty well in some regards economically – they lost their way with the developers & the tent at the Galway races. FG did oppose the tax breaks for developers & investors. I’m pretty Garret Fitzgerald regularly berrated FF in his column for these policies, and their give away tax cut, spending increase budgets.

    If you really think a move leftwards is the solution to Ireland’s problems, let’s have that debate. How would you solve the structural deficit? Would you raise taxes to pay high public sector wages?

  • Mack

    Sammy –

    Beyond the actual TV debate, SF were caught of guard during the election advocating an increase of Corporation Tax in the south while advocating a decrease to ROI levels in the north. Dangerous ground increasing Corpo tax in itsef..

    Ireland actually takes in around 30% more corpo tax as proportion of GDP than the EU average, this despite the corpo tax rate being extraordinarily low (another way of looking at this is business already contributes more in tax revenues in Ireland than the EU average). That would imply that the lower rate of corporation tax actually leads to higher revenues, than the higher rates elsewhere (companies prefer to pay tax in Ireland). Increasing it, is playing Russian roulette with our comparative advantage.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Mack,

    I’m not convinced that a move to the left is the answer either – my point is that when the left tried to address issues like the property market they were ridiculed by the very people from the banking sector that will or should be going to prison and by the ruling political class.

    FG have zero credibility in terms of their own reading of the situation which anybody without a vested interest would have told the plain people of Ireland they were heading for serious problems even if few could have foretold the global crisis. FG fannying about over stamp duty highlights their misjudegment.

    What we need now is for a proper informed National debate which considers all the options including those voices on the left which were ignored at precisely the point at which they should have been listened to.

  • Mack

    See this graph, put together by Michael Taft over at notes on the front, showing comparative tax takes for corporation, personal, and indirect taxes in 2006. Personal taxes have increased significantly since then..

    http://notesonthefront.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8342f650553ef01156f81e70a970c-pi

  • Mack

    Sammy –

    I remember David McWilliams (who on twitter has backed George Lee, but was the orginator of the banking guarantee as an idea), George Lee himself, Eddie Hobbs (to some degree, another FG backer), Alan Ahearne (an economic advisor to FF now), Morgan Kelly highlighting the property bubble an it’s dangers to Irish society. In fairness a couple of Socialist party members set up thepropertypin.com – an excellent website (an were supported by right wing posters / economic experts in that endeavor). But I didn’t really here much from any of the political parties about the lax regulation that allowed salary multiple to baloon and the banks to take undue risk (McWilliams highlighted this danger at every turn since around 2000).. FF fecked up royally, but no party can claim glory (except perhaps the SP)…

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Mack,

    I think that is a fair enough summary.

  • Greenflag

    Mack,

    ‘FF fecked up royally, but no party can claim glory (except perhaps the SP)..’

    You got that right .

    IWSMWDI,

    ‘ What we need now is for a proper informed National debate which considers all the options including those voices on the left ‘

    That’s what should happen . But FG & Labour are going for the ‘political jugular’ and trying to pin this ‘crisis ‘ on FF alone . This imo could backfire on them – not in the upcoming elections but later when heads are cooler .

    The problem for the SP is that while people don’t take kindly to those who tell them in advance that their house is going to burn dou so wn and then appear on the doorstep amid a pile of ashes and say -‘See I told you so – now will you buy this smoke detector ‘