Palest of green shoots

Just in case you didn’t know, the NI property boom (RIP) has earned BBC network attention.

Apart from Newry, Londonderry and Lisburn, the fastest-rising house prices of all were in a county whose name had been associated for three decades with army watchtowers and the hard men of the IRA.

Perhaps the fall in bottoming out – just like the recession itself?

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Norn Iron house prices were driven by the ROI not the mainland a point most of the silly reports on the issues during the boom seemed to overlook. SA after the troops had gone back to Britian was always going to be a very attractive location.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    re. Londonderry

    when is this offensive term associated as it is with ethnic cleansing going to get dropped for fecks sake.

  • dunreavynomore

    Itwas SammyMcNally….
    When are you going to stop usong the offensive term ‘the mainland’ for fecks sake?

  • Patrick Eccles

    The bottom is some way off still. Average household income in NI is £32k. House prices rose to almost 8 times at peak when the average house was £250k. The bottom will come when the average house price is 3.5 times income. £114k

  • Cahal

    Patrick, expect it to overshoot that figure on the way down.

  • when is this offensive term associated as it is with ethnic cleansing going to get dropped for fecks sake

    Sammy, you must have left your sense of perspective of sitting on the car roof when you went to fill off this morning, as it’s now lying ion a ditch at the side of the Westlink.

    Patrick and Cahal – spot on; there are a lot of people with a vague sense of entitlement that their house should be worth what it was worth in the Summer of ’07. No-one wants to look at the fundamentals (price to income ratio; price to rental value ratio) which are screaming that despite the decline in prices, property here is still valued at historically high levels. The price drop has only wiped off the last frenzied 9 months of the boom, after all.

    There’s a classic line in this BBC story:

    She put it on the market 18 months ago, at the peak of the house price boom, for £350,000.

    […]

    She has taken £80,000 off the price to try and shift it. But no buyers have come forward.

    I don’t want to sound cruel, because she’s clearly in a difficult situation, but she just isn’t serious about selling. If average prices have dropped by 40%, dropping the value of your house by 24% in a place like Cushendall which is, for all its charms, a long way from anywhere means you will be waiting a long time to sell.

    High property prices only benefit those who can rich enough to own a large portfolio and raise the capital to speculate. People who own no homes or one home – i.e. most of us – lose out.

  • Paul

    when people say, average wages are for example £32000 for the average family in n.Ireland. do they recalculate this when people who where on this list of average families become unemployed. or do the unemployed not count? as i believe that if calculated this way including with the people on JSA (unemployed) it would be a different average and then affecting the average wage to house price ratio.?
    as the unemployed where once employed well most of them (us)

  • £32,000 actually seems very high for average household income here. I thought it was closer to £24,000.

  • Paul

    average taken from Patrick Eccles post

  • Patrick

    Sorry I cant find the £32k figure at the minute, but the 2004/5 statistics below show that £32k in in the right ballpark.

    Average gross weekly household income in the Northern Ireland was £524 in 2004/05, 10% less than the average for the UK as whole (£583). Only the North East of England, Wales and Yorkshire and Humberside had a lower income level.
    Financial exclusion
    http://www.ofmdfmni.gov.uk/socialchangeinni.pdf

  • Patrick

    Patrick, expect it to overshoot that figure on the way down.

    Posted by Cahal on May 12, 2009 @ 09:24 PM
    /////////////////////////////////////////////////

    That is more than a possibility. Sellers are refusing to accept reality at the minute, but the time could come when they have to. Hardly any mortgages are available at the minute without a 25% deposit. Even on a £160k house very few will have £40k deposit.

  • redhugh78

    You are missing a comma there in your story, and it’s Derry not derry.

  • average gross weekly household income in the Northern Ireland was £524 in 2004/05

    That’s £27.3 kpa and it hasn’t grown £5 in 5 years.

  • Barnshee

    The north west is littered with partially completed houses growing into eyesores– market has a bit to go yet

  • Patrick

    Sammy says

    average gross weekly household income in the Northern Ireland was £524 in 2004/05

    That’s £27.3 kpa and it hasn’t grown £5 in 5 years.
    Posted by Sammy Morse on May 13, 2009 @ 01:07 PM
    ……………………………………………
    Show some proof.

  • Having done the sums Patrick, it’s annual growth of 3.2% which does seem possible; exponential functions have a way of creeping up on you like that!

  • Neil

    Sammy Morse,

    she’s selling that house on humraz.com, fourty quid a ticket I think, then you bid for the house. Lowest unique bid wins. Gonna have a punt on it masell, it looked a nice house.