All change?

Predict09 is a website providing weekly updates on predictions for the composition of the next European Parliament. These predictions are broken down into changes within party representation in each member state.

While the north of Ireland is showing no change in the parties represented the lack of predicted vote data probably means it hasn’t been analysed.

In the rest of Ireland (which drops a seat in Dublin), they are suggesting no change beyond the loss of one Independent MEP. I came across a comment on Facebook that suggests this means while SF retains their seat it would be through a gain for Padraic Mac Lochlainn and the loss of Mary Lou McDonald. Admittedly the person making the comment disagrees but from the figures deduces the following:

4 constituencies of 3 seats
FF & FG one seat each in each constituency
Independent/IND DEM takes third seat in south (Sinnott)
Independent/ALDE loses seat in North/West (Harkin)
FGs fifth seat would be a second seat in East (no chance in either Dublin or North/West)
Labour have no chance in North/West, so their seat must be in Dublin, which knocks out ML.
Leaving the SF seat being in North/West – Padraig

The predictions for Britain anticipate major changes with big loses for the UKIP to the Tories (possibly one BNP) and the decimation of the Greens.

(hat tip Berndt and Brian)

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