All change?

Predict09 is a website providing weekly updates on predictions for the composition of the next European Parliament. These predictions are broken down into changes within party representation in each member state.

While the north of Ireland is showing no change in the parties represented the lack of predicted vote data probably means it hasn’t been analysed.

In the rest of Ireland (which drops a seat in Dublin), they are suggesting no change beyond the loss of one Independent MEP. I came across a comment on Facebook that suggests this means while SF retains their seat it would be through a gain for Padraic Mac Lochlainn and the loss of Mary Lou McDonald. Admittedly the person making the comment disagrees but from the figures deduces the following:

4 constituencies of 3 seats
FF & FG one seat each in each constituency
Independent/IND DEM takes third seat in south (Sinnott)
Independent/ALDE loses seat in North/West (Harkin)
FGs fifth seat would be a second seat in East (no chance in either Dublin or North/West)
Labour have no chance in North/West, so their seat must be in Dublin, which knocks out ML.
Leaving the SF seat being in North/West – Padraig

The predictions for Britain anticipate major changes with big loses for the UKIP to the Tories (possibly one BNP) and the decimation of the Greens.

(hat tip Berndt and Brian)

  • An fhirinne gharbh

    Look out for Labour in the Euro election. It’s a low-stakes election and a lot of traditional FF/FG voters (and some pissed-off Greens) might just go into protest mode.

    Re Dublin & the Connaught/Ulster constituency:
    the Shinners don’t need Mary Lou McDonald or Padraig Mac Lochlainn in Brussels – they need them at home campaigning for Dail seats. The only Euro seat with true significance for the Shinners is Bairbre de Brun’s and that for reasons of head-counting.

  • Duth ealla

    They predict Fianna Fail to go up 2% from the 2004 figure !!!

    I think that there may be some questions as to how likely that is.

    I personally dont see FF managing to secure an extra 2% of the 2004 result, bad as that was, considering the current environment and the opinion polls.

  • While the north of Ireland is showing no change in the parties represented the lack of predicted vote data probably means it hasn’t been analysed

    Ah, that’s where you’re wrong Mark.
    Simon Hamilton’s “read” something the rest of us have missed;)