All change?

Predict09 is a website providing weekly updates on predictions for the composition of the next European Parliament. These predictions are broken down into changes within party representation in each member state.

While the north of Ireland is showing no change in the parties represented the lack of predicted vote data probably means it hasn’t been analysed.

In the rest of Ireland (which drops a seat in Dublin), they are suggesting no change beyond the loss of one Independent MEP. I came across a comment on Facebook that suggests this means while SF retains their seat it would be through a gain for Padraic Mac Lochlainn and the loss of Mary Lou McDonald. Admittedly the person making the comment disagrees but from the figures deduces the following:

4 constituencies of 3 seats
FF & FG one seat each in each constituency
Independent/IND DEM takes third seat in south (Sinnott)
Independent/ALDE loses seat in North/West (Harkin)
FGs fifth seat would be a second seat in East (no chance in either Dublin or North/West)
Labour have no chance in North/West, so their seat must be in Dublin, which knocks out ML.
Leaving the SF seat being in North/West – Padraig

The predictions for Britain anticipate major changes with big loses for the UKIP to the Tories (possibly one BNP) and the decimation of the Greens.

(hat tip Berndt and Brian)


Discover more from Slugger O'Toole

Subscribe to get the latest posts to your email.

Categories Uncategorised

We are reader supported. Donate to keep Slugger lit!

For over 20 years, Slugger has been an independent place for debate and new ideas. We have published over 40,000 posts and over one and a half million comments on the site. Each month we have over 70,000 readers. All this we have accomplished with only volunteers we have never had any paid staff.

Slugger does not receive any funding, and we respect our readers, so we will never run intrusive ads or sponsored posts. Instead, we are reader-supported. Help us keep Slugger independent by becoming a friend of Slugger. While we run a tight ship and no one gets paid to write, we need money to help us cover our costs.

If you like what we do, we are asking you to consider giving a monthly donation of any amount, or you can give a one-off donation. Any amount is appreciated.