40% turnout in Referendum

RTE are reporting the turnout levels in the Referendum is about 40%. That’s just under midway between the turnout for Nice1 (34.79%) and Nice2 (49.47%). It also notes that “voting was heavier in urban than in rural areas” and “turnout was higher in middle class than in working class districts, which would be in line with normal election and referendum patterns”. The prices haven’t shifted any at Paddy Power or Betfair, no one is making any predictions. Count starts at nine tomorrow.

,

  • On politics.ie a few people are claiming there’s an RTE exit poll. One guy says its a 54-46 yes, but the other disagrees, insisting the outcome is unclear and within the margin of error. I am starting to lose hope we can defeat this thing, but I do expect a much bigger no vote numerically-speaking than in any previous EU referendum, in which normally 500,000 have always turned out to vote no. If it passes then the blame will be higher turnout by the middle class latte-drinkers who are not bearing the brunt of competition from cheap labour from Eastern Europe. Conversely, I expect the working-class vote to be heavily on the no side, but perhaps not sufficiently turned out to bridge the gap.

  • Ronald Binge

    There is no exit poll on Morning Ireland.

    Mine’s a nice strong espresso thanks.

  • ZoonPol

    Nearly makes you think that referendums are a waste of time as at least you expect your MP/TD to vote and understand what they are voting for or against.

  • FutureTaoiseach,
    From my own discussions with friends / family over the past fortnight, I would think the middle class are as split on this as anyone else. I struggled to find any voter attribute that would be telling. The usual ones like age / job / class / urban vs rural / usual party polit allegiance don’t seem to define anything this time. Very hard to call, and would be surprised if the gap is anything as wide as 54-46 in either direction.

  • foreign correspondent

    ´´Nearly makes you think that referendums are a waste of time as at least you expect your MP/TD to vote and understand what they are voting for or against.´´

    That´s a bit of an optimistic/naive statement, don´t you think?

  • Greenflag

    future taoiseach ,

    ‘I am starting to lose hope we can defeat this thing, ‘

    Well if you throw in the towel before the boxes are opened you’ll make a poor taoiseach 🙂 . Taoisigh are made of sterner stuff .

    ‘Conversely, I expect the working-class vote to be heavily on the no side, but perhaps not sufficiently turned out to bridge the gap. ‘

    And why do ye think they didn’t turn out in sufficient numbers ?

    They were all down at the pub watching Germany playing Croatia in the European Nations Championship or with their Polish workmates watching the Austria v Poland game.

    Ye just can’t depend on the working class to turn up I’m telling ye :).

    This was a very complex Treaty which probably took Euro lawyers months if not years to devise . Our constitution was written at a time when there was no EU and I believe we have come up against the ‘limitations’ of rule by referendum. Referendums are not a waste of time when the issue is clear cut and of immediate relevance to the voters . But referendums such as this one and the Nice fiascos only bring the referendum process into disrepute .

    As to the result ? Well we’ll have to wait and see 🙂

  • west belfast

    Early returns from RTE suggest that voters have said no to the Treaty – source BBC News 24

  • Greagoir O Frainclin

    Back to the drawing board then, else they’ll hold another referendum as they did with the Nice Treaty.

  • RTÉ claiming strong early tallies for the No side.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0613/eulisbon.html

  • What a relief. On average its 58-42 no so far. FG leader Enda Kenny’s constituency of Mayo is in the “No” camp as it seems are most in Dublin. Even the middle classes, seen as more pro-European, were quite evenly split. The only yes constituencies so far as Cowen’s Laois-Offaly constituency, Kildare is 57-42, Wicklow is 50-50, while Wexford is evenly split too but with a tiny no lead.

  • Polyandra Styrene-Cup

    “Back to the drawing board then”

    Anyone any idea what revisions would be required to change this to a yes?

    A 27 man commission?

    The removal of military pretensions?

    Anything else?

  • Greenflag

    boru , where are you getting your numbers ? SF talleymen ?

  • A 27 man commission?

    Which would be a 40 man commission in time. Not happening.

  • Greenflag

    That’ll teach dem bastards for laffin at our Dustin at de Eurovision !

    Not a good start for Brian Cowen either

  • Good coverage on RTÉ Radio 1 (receivable on 87.8 MHz FM in most of Greater Belfast, 252 kHZ LW across the British Isles, and on the internet worldwide).

  • Almost seems like urban areas are voting more strongly No?

  • Polyandra Styrene-Cup

    “Which would be a 40 man commission in time. Not happening.”

    Because that would require 40 departments?

    Couldn’t we share?

    31 people are entitled to attend the UK cabinet. Not sure how they fit round the table or whether there are enough cups to go round but it seems to work.

    I’m really asking if we know which particular accusations from the No people were creating the greatest response and (if we do) whether we then know which changes could be presented as compromises made in order to secure the support of the Irish electorate.

  • west belfast

    “Latest indications suggest that the Yes side has gained ground, with a number of constituency tallies reporting a strong vote in favour of the Treaty. RTÉ”

    Its gonna be a cliffhanger!

  • Disgruntledyes

    What a disgrace,

    Fianna Fail had upwards of 90 percent definite yes, while Fine Gael had only 60 percent of their support on side.

    The Issues were hilarious…

    If I hear one more person say “but we will lose our Commissioner I will scream”. A Commisioner swears an oath to Europe, if she/he is found to be doing otherwise he will get the sack!

    “We will become citizens of the EU not Ireland”
    We voted that away in Maastricht!!!!!Look at your passports.

    The real blame lies on the Yes side though. Not once did they offer a vision. Everything was about, “well if we don’t is means disaster”. Even from the Commission itself! They should have shown what the EU can be. THe Eurobarometer does not lie, we enjoy the European project, its just a shame the Bogocracy down here decided to tell us “well they gave us a load of dosh”. No one remembers anything. Dick Roche should resign, such a pitiful junior Minister should have never ran this thing, Minister Martin had to clearly take over the last two weeks.

    In the words of Eddie Murphy “what have you done for me lately”.

    I am still hoping, praying, fixing (I wish) for a yes vote, but I believe it will be a no, simply by the fools who said “well I don’t undersand it so I will vote no”- how many treaties have any of the electorate understood? Why start now?

    my two cents…

  • The real blame lies on the Yes side though. Not once did they offer a vision. Everything was about, “well if we don’t is means disaster”.

    Spot on.

    believe it will be a no, simply by the fools who said “well I don’t undersand it so I will vote no”- how many treaties have any of the electorate understood?

    True, but even for someone who tried, this one was particularly opaque. The Commission and the leadership of the ‘core states’ should have taken the Dutch and French votes as a serious warning, but instead said, “fuck the people, they’re stupid and vote on irrelevant issues, let’s go on as if the votes never happened”.

    At some point, people become unhappy with that attitude.

  • Champagne corks no doubt popping in Moscow, Beijing and New Dehli. A bit early in Washington, but I’m sure they’re quite pleased that Europe is divided today by this no vote scaremongered out of the Irish.

  • kensei

    GF

    This was a very complex Treaty which probably took Euro lawyers months if not years to devise . Our constitution was written at a time when there was no EU and I believe we have come up against the ‘limitations’ of rule by referendum. Referendums are not a waste of time when the issue is clear cut and of immediate relevance to the voters . But referendums such as this one and the Nice fiascos only bring the referendum process into disrepute .

    No, we haven’t. There is no USP for this treaty, other than “smoothing the running of the EU”. Which is fine, but if what you suspect you are actually getting is a more creep of European power without any articulated benefits, then people are going to baulk. Vague threats and obfuscation does nto help with the core point. This seems to be a treaty to please EU Officials and no one else.

    If this is a No, we’ll have had No’s in France, the Netherlands and Ireland. These aren’t the UK or Denmark, these are seriously pro-European countries. If the treaty can’t get past here, then perhaps a rethink of what the EU project is actually about and is trying to achieve might be needed. People dislike feeling they are losing control over their countries destiny. If this is a No, it hasn’t shown up the limitations of referendums and popular sovereignty. Quite the opposite. It’s shown up the limitations of the EU.

  • The early tallies are looking more and more like bunk now. If it’s true that Dublin South, Dublin SE and Dun Laoghaire are voting 60-40 Yes, and both Kildare constituencies, Wicklow, Meath East, Laois-Offaly and another two Dublin constituencies have voted Yes more narrowly (current scuttlebutt on RTÉ) then this is going to be very tight, and I would guess at that a very tight Yes.

  • barnshee

    Europe and Euros

    Whats this then ??
    The Daily Torygraph must think is April 1st suggesting German Euros “stronger” than other Euros ??

    (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/13/cneuro113.xml)

    They could not possibly be “on” to anything ?

  • Disgruntledyes

    I don’t smell it Sammy, unless Paddy Power sent the leg breakers. If it is a yes though, who are we to thank? The BMW driving wine drinkers? Not exactly the best result of a plebiscite.

    And what’s worse is if it is a No, Mary Lou will pretend she is in some way competent. Arghhh!

    There is a lot to be answered for in this campaign, apparently the Irish Times polled that 80 percent had no idea what they had voted on.

    And to the writers who claim we are just backing up what the Dutch and French said, I would stress two points:
    1) The Dutch voted primarily on a Eurosceptic ticket, with their Prime Minister saying “he would fully understand a No vote”.

    2) The French voted no for at least a legitimised reason; that the treaty/constitution favoured Capital over Labour, why I would stress, has never been much of a concern down here.

  • Sean Fear

    “Champagne corks no doubt popping in Moscow, Beijing and New Dehli”

    And in the UK too .

    Sammy Morse – the most up to date info is coming out on Political Betting, and it seems the No camp is clearly ahead.

  • Sean Fear

    Munster Says No! according to RTE.

  • Sean Fear

    Irish Justice Minister concedes defeat, according to Channel 4.

  • Sean – not seeing anything on politicalbetting that ain’t miles beind the RTÉ and clogged with gloating English Tories who don’t understand Ireland (your good self being an exception, of course).

  • Sean Fear

    “Neil” seems to be pretty up to the mark.

  • Dewi

    Waterford voted by 54-46 to reject the Treaty – a higher No vote than was recorded in the first Nice Referendum.

    First result (Sammy M RTE is the best…)

  • Yup. No vote in Waterford 2% above Nice I. That’s pretty grim.

  • picador

    What’s the current state of play? How much of the vote is counted? When are the first results expected?

    Mick, give this a bump FFS. This is THE big story of the week. A NO will put politicians all across Europe into a spin (even though Eire is a foreign country and of no interest to the new all-powerful DUP).

  • picador

    Damn get get RTE Radio 1 to work!

  • Wilde Rover

    Greenflag,

    “But referendums such as this one and the Nice fiascos only bring the referendum process into disrepute .”

    What is a referendum process? I thought there was a referendum because the Lisbon Treaty/Constitution was repugnant to Bunreacht na hEireann.

    Disgruntledyes,

    “I am still hoping, praying, fixing (I wish) for a yes vote, but I believe it will be a no, simply by the fools who said “well I don’t undersand it so I will vote no””

    And what about those people who didn’t understand and voted Yes? Are they in some way wise?

    “The Dutch voted primarily on a Eurosceptic ticket,”

    “The French voted no for at least a legitimised reason;”

    I’m afraid you have me at a disadvantage. I cannot look into my heart and discover why the individual voters in those referenda took those decisions. My take on it was that the reasons were varied.

    If a No vote is carried the only thing that is clear is that the electorate of the only three states to be asked the question have rejected this constitution.

  • Dewi

    Sligo-North Letirm voted no by 57-43. Again bigger than Nice 1. RTE are now calling it No.

  • foreign correspondent

    That Torygraph story seems to be the usual anti-euro scaremongering rubbish. All euro notes have the exact same value. Interesting that they give no figures on how many people are looking to exchange Italian euro notes etc for German ones.
    You would think the Eurosceptic press would give it a rest when they got so much egg on their face back in 2001 in the leadup to the euro introduction – remember how there was going to be havoc and confusion across Europe during the switchover, which of course there wasn´t.

  • Greenflag

    kensei ,

    This one will come back to haunt us (ROI) believe me . I can understand being skeptical of the politicians Irish and European but saying up yours Ivan to 500 million europeans is more than chutzpah it’s stupid. Not sure how this will unfold -it will take a few days before the smoke clears .

  • Comrade Stalin

    I couldn’t believe that shite into today’s Torygraph. How could people be so stupid as to not understand the role of the ECB ?

    But then, there’s been a lot of bollocks circulated. Didn’t Ireland already agree to lose a commissioner in Nice ? I’ve been told there have been chain emails with all sorts of scare stories, like how a yes vote will give away control over interest rates (double duh!).