The first survey of opinion on Drumcree has been published by polling organisation More In Common in an extensive report.
To a large extent the results will not provoke much surprise. In general, the picture is one of hardening opinions and deeper divisions, but it is also worth noting that not all opinion is black and white, or orange and green.
Polling took place between the 9th and 20th of October and it is worth noting that the wording of a couple of questions suggest that they were asked at the hight of the events. As such it is probably sensible to view the results as reflecting immediate reactions. Whether, or how much, these will endure over the coming months remains to be seen.
To provide some context one of the questions demonstrated that people said they were far more concerned about health and prices than division and community relations. Issues relating to the constitutional issue came well down the list.
At the same time peoples’ perception of the historic divisions had jumped dramatically since the same question was asked three months before.
Possibly as a result some, particularly unionists, felt less safe.
61% felt that Northern Ireland had not moved on much since the 1990’s compared to only 30% who thought it had. And the pessimists were stronger in their opinion than the optimists.
When it came to voting intentions all the ‘Other’ parties had lost ground since More In Common conducted their first poll three months ago. In total their support had dropped from 17% to 13%. Nationalist parties were up from 35% to 40%, with the entire increase being registered by Sinn Féin. Total Unionist support was unchanged at 42%. Independents and smaller parties were down by 1%.
When it comes to the rights and wrongs of Drumcree the division of opinion is largely predictable. Nationalist and Alliance voters strongly hold that the Parades Commission were wrong to permit the march. DUP and TUV voters were equally convinced they were right.
The UUP was the only party whose voters were almost equally divided.
Opinion was equally predictable concerning the Secretary of State’s decision to prevent the parade.
Of course, backing or not backing the Parades Commission decision or the SoS’s decision are both zero sum questions. The Report reveals that peoples’ feelings are more nuanced than that:
“Almost three in five (57%) Protestants say they understand why the Garvaghy Road residents feel as they do, and over half of Catholics (51%) understand why the Portadown Orangemen feel as they do.”
“46% of people in Northern Ireland can understand both how the Garvaghy Road Residents and the Portadown Orangemen feel as they do.”
But this does not prevent them knowing who they back.
“Nationalist voters side with the Garvaghy Road residents. Four in five (81%) Sinn Féin voters and half (54%) of SDLP voters sympathise more with the residents, and almost none with the Portadown Orangemen.
“Unionist voters are more divided. TUV voters are as supportive of the Orangemen (79% sympathise more with the Orangemen) as Sinn Féin voters are of the residents. Three in five (59%) DUP voters side with the Orangemen.
“UUP voters are more torn: half don’t pick a side, 41% back the Orangemen, and 9% back the residents. Among Protestants as a whole, more do not pick a side (44%) than those who back theOrangemen (42%). One in seven Protestants (14%) sympathise more with the residents.”
As for what should be done. People believe that politicians should solve problems like this only Sinn Féin voters believe that politicians should become involved in person.
Only TUV voters and a slim majority of DUP voters believe that the Assembly should be pulled down over the issue.
The Report finds that:
“Of the seven ways to end the dispute that we tested, only one is acceptable to voters of every party: the Portadown Lodge’s right to parade is confirmed, but it chooses not to use it.
“Half the public (50%) say it would be an acceptable way to end the dispute, against 16% who say unacceptable – and the figures are the same for Catholics and Protestants (51% and 52% acceptable).
“By voters of different parties this proposal is acceptable to a majority of Sinn Féin (56%), Alliance (75%), UUP (62%) and DUP voters (55%), and a plurality of SDLP (44%) and TUV voters (45%). For SDLP voters, it falls short of a majority mainly because more answered “don’t know” or “neither acceptable nor unacceptable”.”
“The other six options tested are unacceptable to one side or the other. Unionist voters reject the ‘no parade’ options, while the ‘parade ahead in some form’ options are unacceptable to nationalist and Alliance voters.
“Alliance voters are the swing voters on what is acceptable on ending this dispute. They reject almost anything that lets the parade down the Garvaghy Road and accept anything that stops it.”
There is more in the Report than I have covered here and if you want to see it there is a link at the top of this piece.
Michael Hehir is a retired sales and marketing manager. He studied in Northern Ireland but now lives between England and Italy.
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