Conleth Burns is Associate Director (Ireland and Northern Ireland) at More in Common. More in Common is a research agency that aims to help leaders understand and better navigate public opinion. You can reach out to Conleth directly on: [email protected]
This morning More in Common published one of the largest studies yet of public attitudes in Northern Ireland to Drumcree, based on a poll of 1,019 adults carried out between 9 and 20 October. It covers four areas: the dispute itself; what it means for politics here; the wider debate about respect for culture in Northern Ireland today; and what the public expects on the rule of law, justice and policing.
For an organisation called More in Common, it might be truer to say there is rather less in common on Drumcree. On question after question, the gap between people from Protestant and Catholic backgrounds can be more than 50 points. Northern Ireland is divided on this, but the story is not simply one of two camps split down the middle. Many people would give some ground on Drumcree, but what they doubt is that the other side would too.
Drumcree and parading
A majority (53 per cent) think the Secretary of State was right to block the march; 30 per cent say he was wrong. Sinn Féin, Alliance and SDLP voters strongly back Sir Chris Bryant’s decision. Unionist voters oppose it, in a pattern that runs through the whole study: TUV voters most opposed, DUP voters strongly opposed but less so, and a majority of UUP voters opposed as well, though a minority (26 per cent) think it was the right decision.
Asked whose side they are on, the public are almost twice as likely to sympathise with the Garvaghy Road residents (38 per cent) as with the Portadown Orangemen (21 per cent). Two in five say both, neither or don’t know. But sympathy is not the same as blindness. Most people can see why the Orangemen want to parade, and most can see why the residents oppose it – including majorities of both Protestants and Catholics in each case. Almost half (46 per cent) understand both sides at once.
Many would also meet the other side halfway. Almost half (48 per cent) say a fair outcome means both sides giving some ground, against 41 per cent who say only one side is right at Drumcree and a fair outcome means that side getting its way. Protestants lean towards compromise (58 to 33 per cent), whereas Catholics lean the other way (51 to 38 per cent).
However, there is a lack of trust between communities at this moment. Only one in five (18 per cent) think the other community would give ground if theirs did, and 45 per cent think it unlikely. Even among people who want both sides to give ground, that figure is no higher than 18 per cent.
We tested seven possible resolutions. Only one had positive net support among voters of every main party: confirming the Portadown Lodge’s right to parade, with the Lodge then choosing not to exercise it. Of the other six, any resolution that lets a parade go ahead without the residents’ agreement is unacceptable to nationalist voters, and those that stop it or give the residents a veto are unacceptable to unionist voters. The next closest is the so-called ‘one and done’ parade: acceptable to unionist and Alliance voters, while SDLP voters lean against and Sinn Féin voters are opposed, but less so than to other parade options.
Beyond the specifics, what matters most to people is that this ends without violence. That is what ‘no going back’ means here. Four in five (82 per cent) say it matters a great deal or a fair amount; only 13 per cent say it is not important, and the view holds across both communities. That is twice the number who say it is important there is no parade down the Garvaghy Road, and almost three times the number who say it is important that one does go down it. Three in four also see the threats and intimidation directed at politicians, activists and lawyers on both sides as a serious issue.
With notifications now going to the Parades Commission for parades and counter-protests beyond Portadown, three in five (60 per cent) would leave existing arrangements in place, even if one side feels they are unfair, rather than risk reopening them. The same proportion say the Portadown Lodge should accept that the decision has been made and not apply again.
The politics of Drumcree
Today we are also publishing our first Assembly voting intention. We polled in July and again this month, so we can see what has moved. Changes since July in brackets.
- Sinn Féin 30% (+5)
- DUP 18% (+1)
- UUP 13% (nc)
- TUV 11% (–1)
- Alliance 9% (–2)
- SDLP 9% (nc)
- Independents and others 4% (–1)
- Green Party 3% (–1)
- People Before Profit 1% (–1)
- Aontú 1% (nc)
The main beneficiary of the dispute so far appears to be Sinn Féin, up five points. Political unionism has held its voters: the three unionist parties together are on 42 per cent, the same as in July and slightly up on 40 per cent in 2022. The DUP are steady on 18 per cent; the UUP and TUV are broadly flat since July and up on 2022. Alliance are down again, from 11 to 9 per cent and from 14 per cent in 2022. The SDLP are where they were in 2022, on 9 per cent, and the nationalist parties together are level with 2022 (38 to 39 per cent). More in Common will be conducting more analysis on the movement between parties and within voter blocs in forthcoming polls.
But vote shares only tell part of the story. Asked for the first word that comes to mind when they think of Stormont, the public’s most common answer is ‘useless’. Almost two in three (64 per cent) say having an Assembly and Executive makes little or no difference to their own life, against 27 per cent who say it makes a great deal or a fair amount.
That disillusionment runs across the whole of politics here, but it is deepest among unionists. Three in four Protestants (75 per cent) say Stormont makes little or no difference to them, compared with 54 per cent of Catholics; 57 per cent of Protestants lean towards Northern Ireland being no worse off without it, compared with 41 per cent of Catholics. Among TUV voters, 85 per cent say the institutions make little or no difference to their life; among DUP and UUP voters it is three in four.
Which raises the question of whether Stormont survives this dispute. Asked whether Drumcree is a strong enough reason for any party to pull out of the Executive, the public say no by 49 per cent to 27 per cent, with a quarter unsure. Asked how they would feel if the institutions collapsed, 39 per cent would be concerned, 32 per cent would not, and one in five would feel neither. Within unionism, the same gradient that runs through the whole study runs through this question. Seven in ten TUV voters (72 per cent) think Drumcree is reason enough to pull out of the Executive. DUP voters say so by 53 per cent to 31 per cent. UUP voters lean the other way, 45 per cent to 31 per cent.
Whose culture is respected?
The public are slightly more likely to say Irish or nationalist culture is well respected in Northern Ireland today (61 per cent) than say the same for British culture (56 per cent). But asked whether their own tradition is respected, Catholics are more likely to say yes than Protestants.
Three in five think Orange culture would be unlikely to be respected in a united Ireland. Only 11 per cent of people from a Protestant background think it’s likely (2 per very likely), against 46 per cent of Catholics who say it’s likely and 38 per cent who say it’s unlikely.
The Fleadh shows what respect for different cultures can look like in practice. The public are overwhelmingly positive about what it did for Belfast: 72 per cent say it was good, including 58 per cent of Protestants. One in four went this year and almost one in two plan to go next year, including one in three Protestants.
Seven in ten think it was a good thing that loyalist and Ulster-Scots bands played at the Fleadh – 75 per cent of Catholics and 68 per cent of Protestants. Flip it round and ask about Irish traditional musicians playing at the Twelfth, and support is lower (47 per cent), but still twice as high as opposition.
Who gets held to account?
Taken as a whole, the public are neither confident nor unconfident that anyone will be held to account over Drumcree. Split by community, however, a different picture emerges. The public are confident that someone on their own side will be held accountable, and not confident that anyone on the other side will be. On what should happen to those who broke the law, two in five (38 per cent) say all of them should be prosecuted, a third (33 per cent) say only those involved in violent or serious offences, and a fifth (21 per cent) want a line drawn under it.
The public back the PSNI’s decision not to remove protesters from the Garvaghy Road, by 50 per cent to 30 per cent. But broader confidence in the police is slipping. Fewer than half (42 per cent) think the PSNI treats everyone equally regardless of community background, down from 50 per cent in June. Twenty-five years on from its creation, the public are more likely to discourage (36 per cent) than encourage (28 per cent) a close family member from joining the PSNI. Catholics would discourage rather than encourage by almost two to one (42 to 22 per cent), but people from a Protestant background are split (35 per cent encourage, 31 per cent discourage).
Underneath this sits a more basic question about respect for the rules in the first place. On that, the public lean towards obedience: 56 per cent say laws should be followed come what may, 38 per cent that it is acceptable to break laws you believe are wrong, with big differences between Protestants and Catholics. The Parades Commission is the exception. Half think you are entitled to resist a determination you believe is wrong, against 37 per cent who say it must be followed. On the broader question of respect for the rule of law, three in five say it is under threat in Northern Ireland today.
What next?
On Drumcree, the verdict is less in common rather than more. But several things cut across the divide. Most people can see the other side’s point of view. Almost half would give some ground, but few believe the other side would be willing to do the same. There was one ending that voters of every party could have lived with. And above everything, people want this to end without violence. That’s the ground leaders wanting to take Northern Ireland beyond this dispute can build on.
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