Rumours from Dromore..

I can’t confirm these figures yet Looks to be confirmed now, but Porlock in the comments zone here has claimed had the first round count at Dromore as Updated below And Newsletter now reporting similar figures Update BBC reporting a UUP win! [added link]

1st Round : DUP 1069
UUP 912
TUV 739
All 357
SF 350
SDLP 255 [NL figure is 290]
Green 59

Adds From UTV report

MEP Jim Allister of the TUV said he was delighted with the result. He said the result was “an unhappy Valentine`s Day for the Chuckle Brothers”.

Alternatively From the Belfast Telegraph report

UUP deputy leader, Danny Kennedy, described the result as “a St Valentine’s Day massacre for the DUP”.

Update Again via Porlock

SDLP and Green eliminated

DUP 1074
UUP 937
TUV 742
SF 507
ALL 479

Now into third count with transfer of Alliance

And

Alliance transfers done

DUP 1127 1074 It appears the original figure may have been correct – 1127
UUP 1119
TUV 801
SF 567

SF now eliminated

More

Latest: after SF transfer

DUP 1178
UUP 1194
TUV 828

TUV now eliminated

Final count appears to be

DUP 1508

UUP 1571

UUP win the seat.

, , ,

  • Grassy Noel

    Greenflag – spot on!

  • joeCanuck

    What price Sunningdale now?
    The UWC strike was the biggest self-imposed disaster that unionism ever had.
    Which politician played a large role in that?
    The chickens have come home to roost but the fox is in the henhouse.
    Oh My. What do we do now?

  • willowfield

    Around 2,000 fewer people voted in this by-election than in the 2005 election, so people should remember to figure this into their analysis.

    THE WINNERS – in terms of votes

    TUV 739 votes up on 2005
    Alliance 357 up on 2005
    Green 59 up on 2005

    THE LOSERS – in terms of votes

    DUP 1,931 votes down
    SDLP 457 votes down
    UUP 272 votes down
    PSF 79 votes down

    THE WINNERS – in terms of %

    TUV 19.8% up
    Alliance 9.5% up
    PSF 2.3% up
    Green 1.6% up

    THE LOSERS – in terms of %

    DUP 21.2% down
    UUP 6.9% down
    SDLP 5% down

    Overall unionist votes were 1464 down and 8.3% down. Nationalists were 536 votes down and 2.7% down. Others were 416 votes up and 11.1% up.

  • Mark McGregor

    Right. Just spoke to the count officials.

    On elimation of Alliance (stage 3) the DUP went to 1127.

    Therefore on eleimiation of SF the DUP received 51 votes from SF which was less than went to the UUP and more than went to TUV.

    As I said, a rogue figure above.

    Pete,

    If you need the number for Dawn in Dromore to check this drop me an email, otherwise take it on trust and put the stage 3 DUP figure back to your original.

  • Ahem

    Noel: “I’ll leave aside all that oul florid crap about murdering people and blood-stained hands and whatnot”. Yeah, thanks, but do you know what? I don’t think I will, if it’s the same to you. Sadly I’m going to remain one of those bores bothered by murder, florid or otherwise. As for the rest of your, uh, argument:

    there WILL be a power-sharing regime at Stormont with increased cross-border cooperation . . . Doesn’t matter who you elect in old bean, that reality will always stare you in the face . . . as for Martin, he didn’t get his United Ireland (yet) but he did prepare those who voted for him for the interim solution the party has settled for. The same couldn’t really be said of Unionism

    Yawn. Wake me up when the inevitable happens, as it’s taking an awfully long time to get here. But it’s a good thing you can rest assured that the future is inescapably on your side – it must make the present so much more comforting.

  • Grassy Noel

    Still haven’t dealt with my point – surely you’re not in THAT much denial?

  • Greenflag

    ‘maybe now the people will wake up before its to late. ”

    Too late for what ? 60% of the people refused to be woken up for long enough to bother to vote !

    ‘Go on Reg start talks with Jim to give the people a party that the people of our wee country can rally round’

    Talks ? Talks ? Talks I mean whats the bloody point ? No talks has always achieved more in NI than talks as you should know from your history !

    ‘ and maybe undo some of the damage that has been done’

    More likely to do even more damage !

    ‘to see if we can stop the rot’

    The ‘Unionist ‘ political tree has been rotting from the top down since the 1960’s . The rot has now reached the roots .

    The real winner of this electon was Tyrone Howe 🙂

  • It was Sammy Mc Nally what done it

    If there is now to be a third force in Unioinst politics the UUP and DUP will surely form a series of electoral pacts as there are no significant policy differences.

    It is a bit like post civil war ROI with FG and FF both accepting partition and FF pretending to be more Republican than FG but with the crucial difference that the Unionist electorate will surely not tolerate having a split between 2 similar parties which resuly in giving SF the advantage.

    The indulgence on the Nationalist side of having 2 parties with same policies will probably continue for a bit longer.

  • @John East Belfast
    What does my position on the Union matter. Head up my arse? playing the ball much, feeling a little bitter as usual or can you loyalists not take a beating with any grace? The Alliance Party’s stance on the Union is well known and if my stance was any different I’d not have joined the party.

    This is a thread about the farce of Dromore, as others have pointed out this is not victory for anyone, because it’s the tax payers who have had to suffer the cost of this election. Let me point this out once again the UUP have held what was theirs already, they have no victory here. The DUP are the real losers here, flying in full steam ahead they have lost and lost badly considering how many big guns in their party where working on this, their electorate have spoken as Jeffery admitted through gritted teeth

    @Snaz
    Sure this was an election for one seat, I didn’t miss that, the fact that roughly 9.5% of a staunchly unionist town voted for us as first preference means that in the next proper council electionwe should take a seat quite comfortably. Unlike many unionists on this site I try and look at things in the long term.

    @Mark McGregor
    For my part I enjoyed what work I did on this election and I look forward to the next one. I may have a job to pay the bills, but a political activist is what I am.

  • Paul P

    Danny Kennedy was on Talkback saying that Unionist voters were coming home. Looks like the UUP are as poor at reading election resluts as they have been for this passed 10 years.

    So for the likes of Danny lets take it really slow
    The percentage share of the DUP vote went down just over 21%. TUV vote was almost 20%.

    Today’s result shows that there is a potentially huge protest vote within the Unionist community. Before spring 2009 when there is likely going to be a Westminster election the DUP need to address this issue. Dr Paisley’s “retirement” would help greatly.

  • Ahem

    You haven’t made a point. You’ve merely, in common with so many other fantastically minded nationalist posters, asserted that, ‘the future’s green/everything’s coming up (easter) lillies’. Honestly, try living in the real world. You know, the one with partition and the Union and minister Martin at Stormont, bought and paid for by London. Cheer yourself by all means with your ‘yets’ and your ‘interims’, but let’s not try kidding the rest of us. Oh and good psychobabble use of ‘denial’ – here’s another piece of it right back at you: projection.

  • Blackmouth

    By the way, the UUP vote was down 6.3% on their previous result. Coming home my foot!

  • Paul P

    Also as Willowfield points out the Unionist vote is down for the by-election but would probably not be down as much in an election that had more significance. I’m not saying that this election didn’t matter, it seemed to matter to the DUP for this last few weeks.

  • Dewi

    “Right. Just spoke to the count officials.”

    Thanks Mark – makes a bit more sense.

  • Jo

    “Jim Allister, a much, much smarter cookie than most of the twerps we elect anywhere.”

    No, he isn’t. He has been very indiscreet in the past. I expect some stories to emerge about JA in the very near future. Watch this space.

  • Ahem

    Yeah, ‘indiscretion’, well know enemy of intelligence. Please, could someone paid to spin for the DUP not come out and play today?

  • willowfield

    The TUV is engaging in a futile exercise.

    At the risk of exaggerating the importance of a by-election in Banbridge, this election may demonstrate again how the DUP has weakened unionism.

    Their cynical strategy of posing dishonestly as opponents of the GFA in order simply to “smash the UUP” certainly worked in terms of gaining party advantage, but it has not worked for unionism. Within the unionist electorate there is now a constituency of people who are hurt and angered at the DUP’s deception. Many of these people will either: (a) not vote anymore, or (b) waste their votes on TUV and split the overall unionist vote. That’s not good for unionism.

    The defeat of the UUP has also weakened unionism because the DUP is not capable of appealing to voters outside the Protestant volk, and the UUP is now so weak that its capabilities are severely limited.

  • Blackmouth: You forgot that the UUP had a swing to them from the DUP of 7.15%, if I understand the formula correctly. Whether this actually means anything outside of psephological statistical analysis is another matter. But that never stops anyone from claiming a good result.

  • Moe

    So Jeffrey’s warning of having to crush the TUV at this election before they got started seem to fallen on deaf ears. Sorry, was it just fighting talk to gee up their supporters and workers? Either way, it doesn’t seem to have worked.

    The DUP, however they try to spin it, threw everything at this election – all the big names, all the media coverage and they still couldn’t win it in Jeffrey’s heartland. From 50% to 28%: that’s over 40% of a drop of their support. But Paisley has said on the BBC News that this isn’t a bad result, as they only lost by a few votes to what was originally a UUP seat. Nice try Big Man but your Party already had 3 of the 5 seats and only forced an election because you thought you’d walk it.

    Just think Mr Robinson / Mr Donaldon: you could’ve co-opted Carol Black, saved the taxpayers of Dromore some money, saved giving your newest rivals a platform and saved yourself the embarrassement of losing the seat.

    The smile has been well and truely wiped off the face of the Chuckle Brothers – Ian, the clock’s ticking…

  • Ulidian

    I wonder how many of the party’s canvessor’s souls the big man is going to send to purgatory for this monumental failure?

    LMAO!

    YOU OWE ME YOUR SOUL!!!!!

  • Ulidian

    DR PAISLEY,
    PETER ROBINSON,
    JEFFEREY DONALDSON!

    YOUR MAN TOOK A HELL OF A BEATING!

    sorry couldnt resist that one!

  • I note Ian Paisley’s unbelievable statement that this was a UUP seat and his party did well in topping the poll on the first count .
    I also note that Paisley with his now characteristic flair for losing votes made the statement from Dublin ( great PR ) .
    This result if repeated across would end the DUP’s grip on the assembly with Sinn Fein replacing them as the lead party .
    This result is already sending shockwaves through the DUP and will almost certainly result in move to eject Paisley Sen and Jnr who are very obviously electoral liabilities .
    Expect a stalking horse candidate to emerge to oppose Paisley Snr followed by a delegation of Robinson led MPs telling him his time is up .
    Enoch Powell’s maxim that political careers end in tears is about to be fulfilled in Ian Paisley .
    This is the beginning of the end for Ian Paisley’s political career .

  • Jo

    Moi? Paid to spin, or even spin for free for the DUP? LMFAO!

  • Great comment from Danny Kennedy he is calling this result a St Valentine’s Day Massacre for the DUP .
    LOL

  • Frustrated Democrat

    Some times, just sometimes the pigeons come home to roost, and it seems the first few have settled on their perches over the FM’s room in Stormont.

    There are a lot more hovering outside just waiting for the oportunity to land. Let us see who is first to move towards the window to let them in.

    A good day for those who believe hypocrites and those who are economical with the truth deserve to reap their just desserts.

    And no I do not support TUV or JA and do support the GFA.

  • harry

    so this was a council seat election? shit.. i thought it was a general election. A- level politics lessons on by elections spring to mind

  • Jo

    So..let me get this straight: one power sharing unionist defeats another power sharing unionist and yet this is somehow supposed to be a victory for a unionist who is opposed to power sharing with SF? Catch a grip.

  • Frustrated democrat you make a very valid point . What has motivated such a strong unionist backlash is the conviction that Ian Paisley has deceived his people .
    As one who well remembers his clearcut commitment to oppose Sinn Fein’s entrance into government I can only conclude that he was telling porkies .
    Many unionists feel betrayed by Ian Paisley and are increasingly angry with his chuckle brothers strategy for government .
    The vote to remove him in his own church was an indicator of wider unionist discontment – the Dromore result is proof of that .
    Paisley politically is now on borrowed time .

  • Mark McGregor

    Of course its a success for the TUV, those numbers would have them winning seats on Council and in Stormont.

    Other winners: (big winner)UUP won the seat. SF improved their lead over the SDLP

    Losers: DUP, lost the seat, percentage and couldn’t wipe out their new challenger. SDLP drifting further out of contention against SF. Greens a pure rubbish result.

    50/50: APNI, improved on last time they ran but SF are polling ahead of them and are picking up more transfers from the SDLP.

  • Youse are all wrong. We won!

    Mark, sorry my outgoing e-mail was on the blink last night and was too tired to fix it. Will be in touch later today. Suffice to say, the Shinners cleaned the SDLP’s clock in Ballyward, but the SDLP led in every box in the rest of the DEA.

    Ahem – so, you think democracy is a system where the Shinners and DUP would be given a virtual monopoly of Assembly representation on 56% of the vote? Yeah, right!

  • Ahem

    Okay, I’ll sign up for that A level course: in large political units, small polls matter less than is commonly supposed, in small political units, however, they loom larger.

    The DUP: called this by-election (which was madness, as it was always, in such an echt-Unionist area, going to provide a platform for Allister); threw everything they could at it; *needed* to stop the TUV insurgency before it got going (they’ve learnt that at least from their own history); and are anyway at the moment in a febrile state as the poor man’s Eden can all too easily see that the far, far poorer man’s Churchill’s has clung on much too long for any future good he will do.

    Here’s the skinny – for the Punt, every day he lets Paisley chuckle on with Mart is another few hundred chips steadily added to Jim Allister’s pile. So now the onus is on Robinson to dispatch Paisley because it’s in his own self-interest to do so. This has never been the case before; the factors which make it the case now are not going to change for the better from Robinson’s standpoint – Paisley being, at the very least, politically senescent, and without a doubt, being politically a busted flush (ie even if he now somehow wanted to row back on the chuckling, his credbility is completely spent with would-be TUV voters, so that flip flop wouldn’t secure its aim).

    Result = Robinson knifes Paisley sometime after Easter. And unlike the wretched Agreement, that really wil be a good Friday. Hear that sound? It’s Enoch laughing in heaven.

  • IJP

    Firstly, sincere congratulations to Carol Black. Her party put some very hard work in the campaign, and won fair and square. Representing people at any level is a privilege which some take seriously and others less so – I’ve little doubt she will join the former group, and I wish her every success.

    Secondly, I would like to congratulate my own party’s candidate, David Griffin, and his campaign team. By my calculations, that vote would be sufficient to pick up a seat in an area where we had been totally absent for 10 years, and the vote has been pulled from all corners. I know David received a warm reception and put in an astonishing effort, and I trust he will join Carol as a local Councillor (in whatever Councils we have) very soon.

    Finally, I concur with Willowfield‘s note of caution about reading too much into such things, and thank him for his interesting analysis otherwise.

  • Ahem

    Much, much more democratic than an APNIer getting to cast a vote that’s counted 3 or 4 times, whilst a DUP voter’s, or a Shinner for that matter, counts just the once. The fundamental flaw with PR is that it is predicated on the absurd notion that every vote cast should, somehow, contribute to a winning outcome for the voter who cast it. Transfers being a notion remotely cognizant with democratic voting is up there with ManBearPig being Norn Iron’s next great social ill.

  • 50/50: APNI, improved on last time they ran but SF are polling ahead of them and are picking up more transfers from the SDLP.

    ????? Mark, I’m trying not to spin, but I can’t see how this was anything other than a good result. We beat SF (357 is more than 350), more than doubled our previous best result, and have a clear platform for a council seat. I’m not sure how 10% in what is probably the weakest DEA in any Assembly seat we hold is a bad result?

  • IJP

    Mark

    Sammy will know more about this than me, but my analysis of the SDLP transfer favouring SF is in fact that a few more people than I expected transferred their first preference directly to Alliance.

    But again, Willowfield‘s note of caution applies!

  • but my analysis of the SDLP transfer favouring SF is in fact that a few more people than I expected transferred their first preference directly to Alliance.

    Despite agreeing with all the notes of caution, given that the nationalist vote was down 2% despite SF’s superior GOTV skills, and the Nationalist vote in the town itself was well down, I’d guess that’s what happened.

  • Ahem

    I wonder if the UUP will be so giddy with relief that Reg Yoof will restart their website: http://youngunionists.org.uk/ ? ‘Soon’ has become a very elastic concept over there.

  • Ahem:

    * one’s vote doesn’t get counted three or four times, it gets counted once but can transfer to maximise its efficiency
    * leaving voters unrepresented is a bad idea
    * your pathological obsession with the Alliance Party is boring

  • Timothy Bryce

    ahem:

    yes. i hope the young unionists do get their blog up and running asap. we can be treated to more shillidayisms! i love it – even from the floor of the count centre (or with his ‘ear to the ground’) we get this:

    “I have to say, I called this completly wrong. Given the circumstances, this is an outsranding result for the UUP. Apparently we’re 16 votes ahead after the SF transfers. I’d say the TUV transfers will pull Paul Stewart home, but he might as well have lost.”

    Posted by Michael Shilliday on Feb 14, 2008 @ 12:15 PM

    i mean really. could you make it up?

  • Ahem

    What obsession with the Alliance? Seriously: I’m opposed to PR – you really don’t need to be so touchy. As for your, ‘black is white’ argument – “one’s vote doesn’t get counted three or four times, it gets counted once but can transfer to maximise its efficiency” – pull the other one. The vote not ‘transferred’, for whatever reason, is counted once, the vote cast for an unpopular candidate, then ‘transferred’, in ever more desperate search of a more popular candidate to end up being tallied against, *is* counted more than once. You can be as pompous as you want about this, indeed, you can engage in as much elision as you want (cf. FPTP leaving voters ‘unrepresented’ – it doesn’t, it merely reflects reality, which is that when you vote, you are *not* guaranteed your candidate(s) being elected), but it doesn’t change what PR does. And that’s have some votes counted rather more often than other votes.

  • OK, it may not be up there with Barney Fitzpatrick’s win in the Skerries By-Election or Anna Lo’s win in South Belfast, but i reckon we ain’t heard the last of David Griffin.
    And wouldn’t an Ulster win tomorrow against the Dragons round off a great week.

  • interested

    Watchman,
    My comment about Jim Allister’s project imploding still stands. It mightn’t have happened today but it will do. I still firmly believe that his supporters are there for too many different reasons.

    You were reluctant to dig out some of my other comments like, as I already mentioned, to Turgon where I mentioned that the only certainty with this election is that someone would attempt to portray the result as something it wasn’t. Maybe I was wrong because it would seem that most people are attempting to portray it as many different things at once.

    Frankly if Jim Allister believes that all those people voted TUV in Dromore yesterday because they want devolution torn down tomorrow and because they care about his points on mandatory coalition then he is a fool. There was a protest vote and that message should be taken seriously – no doubt about it.

    Its slightly laughable to see the Ulster Unionists treat it as some massive revival. Yes they won the seat, but with a reduction in the % of their vote – not as big a reduction as the DUP, but a reduction none the less. It came down to the interesting transfer pattern of those people who voted TUV.

    At the end of the day the TUV and DUP vote combined was reasonalbly close to the 2005 % result so it would appear that a chunk (yes a sizeable chunk) of people who voted DUP last time decided to go elsewhere. Its a matter of working out why they went elsewhere and whether itsa permanent move or one which could be reversed. I’m not sure whether to read the % of TUV increase and DUP decrease too literally. I’d assume on a higher turnout that the DUP should do better and on a bigger province-wide election the TUV clearly wouldn’t have been able to have Roy Gillespie and other assorted individuals from across the Province there. I don’t dispute that DUP people from across NI were there, but clearly a province-wide election will favour parties with bigger election machines and more people to work with.

    In my view this wouldn’t have been a particularly better day had the TUV transfers moved slightly differently and the DUP candidate won the seat by half a dozen votes. That wouldn’t change the real result and the UUP would do well to take note of that – whilst still wishing Carol Black all the best for her time on Banbridge Council.

  • Ulidian

    Interested,

    Nappies, toys, rattles and dummies!

    123 TUV we throw stones at the DUP (IRA SF ALLIANCE)…………..

    There is no spin large enough for this one!

  • willowfield

    By my calculations, if this vote were to be repeated at a full council election, the result would be:

    DUP 2
    UUP 1
    TUV 1
    Alliance 1

    DUP and SDLP losing 1 seat each, and TUV and Alliance gaining 1 seat each.

    But remember there are 2,000 missing votes since the last time!

  • Jo

    Should the 4-28 post be true, we have a TUV councillor in a medium sized town in County Down. Hardly Earth-shattering. Moreover, hardly a threat to power sharing, either at Executive or indeed, Dromore level.

    The second most unfortunate thing about today is the incessant repetition of the impact on the smile of the “CBs”. No, I cannot bring myself to rpeeat thefull phrase any more. It wasn’t even mildly amusing the first time I heard it.

    The most unfortunate thing? – having to hear JA’s horrendous gravelly voice over and over again. BTW, why didn’t HE stand?

  • PaddyReilly

    Paisley politically is now on borrowed time.

    Gerontologically speaking as well, surely?

  • BonarLaw

    Jo

    1. He’s an MEP
    2. He doesn’t qualify living in North Antrim
    3. He’s an MEP

  • CS Parnell

    It’s usual story here – the vast majority of people, who voted for some degree of compromise, are going to be dictated to by a small bunch of headbangers and bigots.

    Welcome to Northern Ireland.

    Yes, there is poetic justice in the Paisleyites getting screwed in this way – after all we have had to take this from them for the best part of half a century.

    Gerry Fitt will be laughing his head off right now and even Brian Faulkner, in somewhere rather warmer, will be smiling.

    But schadenfraude, even at the expense of the liars of the DUP, does not a policy make.

  • The Cork man

    Any county players from around Dromore? I know that North Down has a bit of hurling in Portaferry but never heard of anyone of significance around Dromore.

  • yeraw

    the DUP should never have built this election up so much – even if they had taken the seat with a small majority they would have taken a hit to the TUV who could claim a great result for their first go out. surely this result will secretly please some DUP members who want to see the back of papa doc? both the mccrea/ simpson end and robbo.

  • interested

    ulidian,
    I’m happy for you to gloat as loudly and as long as you please…. I’m happy to be judged on what I’ve said and I don’t believe it constitutes any toy throwing…

    The TUV have every right to be pleased – a good result, but they have to look at whether the vote was protest or actual support for what the TUV stand for. That comes back to my earlier point about TUV implosion – its fine when you don’t actually pinpoint your policies and their ultimate objective, or if you just plain don’t have any policies other than opposing the status quo. Yes the DUP traded for a period post 1998 but ultimately you’re forced to make a decision for yourself and outline what you’d do differently – and more importantly, what you’d do that is actually achievable.

    Now that Jim Allister has said loud and clear that they’re a party and that contesting elections is what they do the TUV will be rightly asked to defend their position as all political parties have to (but not simple pressure groups) and to actually outline what their policies are. Its when that starts to develop that strains in the TUV could start to become more evident. I still believe that there is aat least a difference in emphasis amongst many different strands there – and in reality its a real difference in fundamentals with many who would never take SF into Government under any circumstances, others who don’t want nationalists in Government plain and simple and others who just want some more issues sorted out prior to Government. Those issues will implode the membership of the TUV – and the various strengths of those views are not replicated in the people who voted for Harbinson. Frankly, I believe Willie Ross and his view on devolution are light years away from most of the people who voted for the TUV. Similarly with Roy Gillespie and co and when the strains start to show internally with the TUV that will pose them problems with the types of people who did go out and vote for Harbinson.

    I don’t believe the vote for the TUV was entirely/or even largely a pro-TUV vote because they have nothing to vote for. Therefore it was either an anti-DUP vote or a DUP protest vote. It probably contains degrees of both but I would hazard that the larger section are those who are miffed with the perception of how the FM/DFM thing has been handled and any associated pictures etc you want to point to. They probably havent liked issues around perceptions of politicians being in it for their own personal gain (substantiated or not). Those are not issues which should keep them away from the DUP permanently – although I’m not saying that those people won’t just stop voting DUP – just that all things being equal they should be able to be won back.

  • PaddyReilly

    Honestly, try living in the real world. You know, the one with partition and the Union and minister Martin at Stormont, bought and paid for by London. Cheer yourself by all means with your ‘yets’ and your ‘interims’, but let’s not try kidding the rest of us.

    Well I must say, the really enjoyable thing about the continued existence of partitionist institutions is the pleasure one gets from watching when every election turns out badly for the Unionists. Even, in this case, an election which they were preordained to win. I wouldn’t miss it for the world. It’s like watching your football team make its way from the bottom to the top of the Division. Compared to this, a United Ireland will be rather boring.

    Now they’re not even certain they’re going to win the EU elections next year! And they’re voting to punish the DUP for allowing ‘terrorists into government’: net result: Marty is promoted to 1st minister! What a hoot!

    Pleasure deferred is pleasure augmented.

  • belfastpaul

    What a place. A pokey wee hole like Dromore and all this dispute over tribal and inter-tribal politics.

    When will we ever get a politics not attached to competing nationalism and small-minded introspective sectarianism?

    Answers on a postcard to President Mugabe, 1 Main Street, Dromore (half day closing on Wednesdays, so don’t post on a Tuesday), Co. Drowning in Boredom, Sectarianopolis, UK, Six Counties, The North, Over there…he’s behind you etc.

  • WindsorRocker

    Interested,

    your 5.04 comment highlights the main problem with the sustainability of the TUV.

    When the initial meetings were taking place, was it not stressed that any new movement was precisely that and not a formal political party? Most likely this came to pass because of the inherent nature of the TUV, a loose federation of people who stand for completely different things who are just in this to give Paisley a bloody nose.

  • Twinbrook

    Closing the stable door after the horse has bolted comes to mind…..
    The TUV has nothing positive to offer,only the politics of the past, politics which got all of us no where…
    their appeal will be limited, who in their right mind wants to reverse all the changes which have given everyone in this society a modicum of normalcy…

    but then again, it seems the TUV have set themselves as the Vanguard of the Vanguard…..

    NO NO NO….

    If it comes to voting for the TUV and possibility losing Unionist seats to Nationalists….

    like big Bob, the TUV will just fade and fade…

  • Interested, I’m happy to concede that TUV has plenty of thinking to do about its future, and also that I have not the faintest idea about its internal workings. However, that’s not important today. This was supposed to be the day when the DUP buried its fiercest critics, and we can all agree that things turned out rather differently. So there’s obviously votes from attacking the DUP from the right, a point I made in an op-ed piece for Slugger way back in June 2005.

    The big question facing Allister is how to move TUV from being a home for refuseniks and political strays into a dynamic and credible right-wing unionist party. He is also going to have to say whether his party seeks election to an Assembly in order to destroy it or whether he wants TUV to be a player inside the system, regardless of his loathing for it. Such questions could well splinter TUV sooner rather than later. However, nothing is more likely to unify the different elements than the real prospect of future success, a prospect that didn’t exist a day ago.

    Papa Doc is doing his best to help Allister and those internal critics considering the post-Paisley future with his now customary blether in response to the defeat. No wonder his spin-doctors try to keep him under lock and key as every time he opens his mouth he shows just how out of touch with ordinary unionists he has become. But that’s what happens when you become the establishment unionist party and Papa, of all people, should know that.

  • Timothy Bryce

    watchman:

    do you not think a strong vol coalition policy message ‘secularises’ tuv and could make uup a little more relevant?

    could also create common ‘policy’ ground to legitimise the tuv/uup transfers – perhaps uup could focus on eating into the tuv’s 60/40 I dont know but approx) uup transfer rate and allow uupers to feel a little more ‘comfortable’ tuv transfering?

    dups have been trying to reinforce their vol coalition stance, but from my view tends to fail due to incessant chuckling.

    just a thought

  • BonarLaw

    PaddyReilly

    how exactly is Banbridge District Council a “partitionist institutions”?

  • PaddyReilly

    How exactly is Banbridge District Council a “partitionist institution”?

    I don’t know, ask Ahem and others of the “You’re only administering British rule” school.

  • Timothy Bryce,

    Yes to both questions. I wonder whether Allister would want to explore any possible common ground with the UUP. At present the DUP benefits from fragmented and ineffective unionist opposition, even despite today’s setback. I have long been unconvinced about the DUP’s capabilities. We could do with a united and cohesive alternative.

  • Dromore Voter

    “UUP HQ to complete investigation into ‘illegality’ of UUP Council Candidate Carol Black.”

    Amen to that!

  • Buggerhed

    Here’s another way on analysing the results:

    DUP 28.6%
    UUP 24.4%
    TUV 19.8%
    APNI 9.5%
    SF 9.4%
    SDLP 6.8%
    GP 1.6%

    If this had been an election for all 5 of Dromore’s Seat the amout of quotas each party would have would be:

    DUP 1.71Q
    UUP 1.46Q
    TUV 1.18Q
    APNI 0.57Q
    SF 0.56Q
    SDLP 0.41Q
    GP 0.09Q

    Clearly Each unionist party would have one seat each.

    SDLP transfers would determine whether SF or APNI take one of the seats.

    With the last seat between the DUP & UUP.

    I expect the nationalist vote would stay tight and SF would take the 4th seat. The Alliance would be eliminated and the UUP, with TUV help would just make the last one. If not, then SF would be eliminated and their votes would elect APNI and the second DUP

    This is highly speculative, balancing of candidates and higher turnouts would affect the result. The latter would probably reduce the percentage of TUV and Alliance votes. However TUV could be reasonably certain of a seat, despite some of the mindless optimism on here the Alliance would be less so

  • Truth & Justice

    This is not really a good vote for the DUP or UUP the UUP share of the vote is down and is actually there lowest ever the DUP votes lost is a disaster for them, both the DUP and UUP need to watch out Unionism could be heading for a disaster if the vote is split three ways in any Assembly or Westminster election maybe voters should consider this?

  • joeCanuck

    Well I guess, as usual, those pesky voters got it all wrong. Will they never learn?

  • Paul P

    The DUP didn’t become the lead unionist party over night. The generated momentum at every election since the by-election in South Antrim after the death of Clifford Forsythe. Also they were in opposition during a time when the IRA had not decomissioned any weapons and SF were not supporting the Police and justice system. Does Allister really have the political skills to lead a significant political party.

    Fair play to TUV for giving the DUP a bloody nose and getting the UUP elected.

  • Paul when the hell where DUP ever an Official Opposition party. In the previous Assembly’s a definately recall DUP MLA’s sitting as ministers. You can’t be Opposition when you have ministers in the Executive.

  • rj

    Ahem – on STV

    Someone who voted 1 Green, 2 Alliance, 3 SDLP, 4 Sinn Fein, 5 UUP (not entirely incredible) may find her vote has been counted 4 times.

    But her vote has only counted once.

  • CS Parnell

    This wasn’t an STV election and so not a proportional result.

  • joeCanuck

    Pay attention ClasS.

  • Mick Fealty

    The Cork man

    Leitrim used to have a handy enough team.

  • Bob Wilson

    Thanks to Willowfield for the stats.
    Bad result for DUP – good result for TUV.
    Respectable result for UUP – not overly squeezed by DUP/TUV fight.
    Alliance did well – which must be worrying for the UUP as I think this must reflect on Alliances success in positioning itself as opposition and the profile it has received from this?

  • However TUV could be reasonably certain of a seat, despite some of the mindless optimism on here the Alliance would be less so

    Yes, and according to you on Wednesday night, the Greens were going to beat us…

    FWIW, I wouldn’t guarantee the DUP’s chance of holding two seats on those figures. The SDLP and Green transfers (we know what way they went) would almost certainly put Alliance and SF ahead of the second DUP candidate. Also, I know what way the UUP transfers were going and there were enough there to get us close to the quota in a full council election. The one set of transfers I didn’t tally properly were TUV’s which turned out to be a serious tactical mistake that made me look like a plonker in front of Eamonn Mallie and Noel McAdam!!!

    Optimism, perhaps. Mindless, no.

  • Ahem

    But, rj, that’s *precisely* where you’re wrong – if the illustrative vote you posit had only counted once, it would have counted as a vote for the Greens (just as the theoretical DUP vote I suggested earlier only counted once). But, in your telling example, the voter who voted as you suggest, got to have his vote count up to 5 times, as it kept time after time biting at the cherry until it ended up being tallied. In other words, your Green->Alliance->SDLP->Sinn Fein->UUP voter got fully five goes, whereas, in this example, the dullard DUP voter got one goe. That’s neither fair, let alone democratic.

  • Ahem

    Ahem: that second ‘goe’ is positively Quaylian.