By-election background

While we wait for the by-election result from Dromore, where the TUV have put forward a candidate to challenge the DUP, the BBC’s Mark Devenport has picked out the last local election figures from 2005 via Nic Whyte’s invaluable Ark.

Thanks to Nic Whyte’s site, here is the last Dromore result from 2005.

First Count:
Tyrone Howe, (UUP) 1304
Norah Beare, (DUP) 1292
Paul Rankin, (DUP) 870
David Herron, (DUP) 838
Cassie McDermott, (SDLP) 712
William Martin, (UUP) 580
Francis Branniff, (SF) 429

Votes by Party:
DUP: 3,000 (49.8%), 3 seats
UUP: 1,184 1,884 (31.3%), 1 seat
SDLP: 712 (11.8%), 1 seat
SF: 429 (7.1%)

Electorate: 9,542; seats: 5; votes cast: 6,119; spoilt votes: 94 (1.5%);
valid votes: 6,025 (98.5%); quota: 1,005

And from earlier in the campaign, the candidates this time

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  • Mark S

    Think the UUP 2005 total should read 1884 not 1184. Apparently turnout about 38% (slightly higher than average for a council by-election.

  • Cuchulainn

    ill try and get in thier first,

    i can see the DUP taking the seat, i think that much is clear, but i think the TUV will take a quite a few votes, just enough for them to claim voctory, and enough for the DUP to claim they are not relavent,

    the UUP will find themselves that they will get lot of transfers, and wont be totally wiped out,

    on the Nationalist, given the location and the strenght of the campiagn put in by the SDLP, i believe they will SF hands down, with maybe more of a vote than last time,i believe the SDLP Youth were campigning last nite!

    where was the Gerry Juniors?

  • Pete Baker

    You’re right, Mark.

    Although the percentages are correct, the original figure is wrong.

    I’ve corrected it here, Nic will, no doubt, update himself.

  • Porlock

    Looks like the DUP has been hit by TUV:

    Provisional tallies from inside the count:

    DUP 1100

    UUP 800

    TUV 700

    All 300

    SDLP 250

    SF 250

    Green 100

    Porlock

  • Porlock

    Official Result

    DUP 1069

    UUP 912

    TUV 739

    All 357

    SF 350

    SDLP 255

    Green 59

    UUP might actually hold!!!!

    Porlock

  • joeCanuck

    Can false teeth be gnashed?

  • red branch

    Disaster for DUP. TUVs have taken 33% of their vote and they won’t get elected without TUV transfers.

    The UUP should be well pleased their vote though down has held up relatively well in a bye-election they didn’t expect to win.

    chairman Jim will be hard to listen to!

  • Porlock

    SDLP and Green eliminated

    DUP 1074

    UUP 937

    TUV 742

    SF 507

    ALL 479

    Now into third count with transfer of Alliance

    Porlock

  • Ulidian

    Red branch,

    Please use a different e-mail!
    People will think your me! lmao

  • BonarLaw

    exit chuckle brother snr stage left…

  • Mark McGregor

    That has to be the highest transfer rate I’ve ever seen from the SDLP to SF – circa 60%. Along with being well ahead of them in 1st preferences, I’m sure SF are very statisfied with how their minor part in this election turned out. And we get to see the transfer rate from APNI to SF for a change too next.

  • Clonakilty

    APNI will put UUP in front – where did TUV transfers go?

  • Doubter

    Cuchulainn,

    Where are the SDLP voters?????? Looks like you can fool some of the people some of the time but only yourself all of the time. ‘location and strenght of camapign’ vs Dessie Ward (who seems to run rings around all of the Unionist councillors on Banbridge). Interesting that so few SDLP votes transfered to SF.

    This will now only get really inte4resting when we see where TUV votes transfer

  • Cuchulainn

    lol, meh their u are, maybe i can blame it on a bad turn out! yea i think i will! lol

    disaster for the SDLP vote, expected a lot better form the effort they put in, interesting to see the party response

  • pith

    Is this more proof that Robinson is not such a great strategist afterall?

  • BonarLaw

    BTW the current FM’s favourite nationalist isn’t doing him any favours either.

  • joeCanuck

    Someone please call Turgon and wake him up.

  • BonarLaw

    pith

    maybe. Although Robinson doesn’t swan around his constituency with Irish PM waxing lyrical about the “North of Ireland”. Nor does he give the impression of political footsie being played with SF. If the DUP gain this seat then the TUVs’ stellar performance will hasten Robinsons’ elevation to the top job. Too cynical to suggest this is exactly what was hoped for?

  • Porlock

    Alliance transfers done

    DUP 1127

    UUP 1119

    TUV 801

    SF 567

    SF now eliminated

    Porlock

  • Buggerhed

    Everything boils down to TUV transfers

    I think if this were an ordinary council election TUV would win a seat.

    I await the result eagerly

  • Porlock

    Slight typo on Alliance transfer figures:

    DUP 1074

    UUP 1119

    TUV 801

    SF 567

    LATEST: After SF transfers:

    DUP 1178

    UUP 1194

    TUV 828

    TUV now eliminated

    Porlock

  • Porlock,

    Your ‘official figures’ above puts the SDLP on 255, while the Newsletter is saying that they got 290. The latter figure is credible, given the transfers (all but 2 votes!?), and the seemingly high proportion of those transfers going to SF.

    Could you confirm whether you or the Newsletter is correct?

  • Continental drifter

    Horseman,

    Newsletter figure is correct.

  • Chuckle Vision

    “If the DUP gain this seat then the TUVs’ stellar performance will hasten Robinsons’ elevation to the top job.”

    Sounds as if the First Minister should be expecting a visit from the men in grey suits. Do they still bring a bottle of whiskey and a pearl handled revolver? Probably more high tech nowadays.

  • Buggerhed

    1505 DUP

    1571 UUP

    Final count

    Well done Basil

  • Silent watcher

    No Buggerhed, not well done Basil. It is quite clear that the result is reflective of nothing Basil has done. It is solely down to the defection of the self proclaimed political heavy weight Edward (who?) Hannah. watchout for his statement in tomorrows newsletter which will explain how with him all things are possible!!

  • Derry View

    Cuchulainn sorry to see the SDLP cheerleaders are as self deluded as ever.
    SDLP are gone and here they have lost one of their few remaining bastions.

    Time they adjusted to the new dispensation and worked with others. They are a small party with virtually no support and they will continue to shrink until they realise this and act accordingly.

    Transferring votes to the party trusted and supported by most nationalists would at least put them in line for transfers that could save them a seat or two when the Sinners are elected and have surplus votes.

    If they carry on like this they will be lucky to have a council seat left. Various SDLP’ers are desperately worried about their liveliehoods and their families are worried that they may lose the double jobbing.

    They are so powerless now their are not even worth bribing anymore so what will they live on?

  • Ahem

    Suck it up – you’re getting nothing other than a Stoop MP in Derry next time out.

  • Buggerhed

    “Suck it up – you’re getting nothing other than a Stoop MP in Derry next time out.”

    Have to agree with that

  • Derry View

    You have got to be kidding !!!!! Durkan could not win a raffle in Derry. If he manages to hang on in here it will be a very lonely existence as the last Stoop MP but no-one here expects that. Even SDLP Youth say that they need to unite with Fianna Fail if they are to have a chance at keeping the Derry Westminster seat.
    Those in the know here though say that they could hold it if they let Helen Quigley through as she is the only councillor capable of making an impact for the SDLP. She was sidelined by the old guard for the assembly and that has probably sealed the party’s fate in Derry.

    But nobody believes that Durkan can stand aside for a woman so it is unlikely that this will happen.

  • Buggerhed

    The Stoops outpolled the Shinners everywhere in Derry except Cityside in 2005.
    In 2007 the SDLP vote rose, the Shinners’ fell.
    I wonder if RSF will run again

  • Twinbrook

    this result will only heighten the dissatisfaction within the SDLP about the leadership of Durkan…

    Doesn`t bode well for the chances of the SDLP in South Down…

    unless off course the stoops take credit for Creation!

  • Not fooled

    I think Fianna Fail should hurry up or there will be no SDLP to unite with. I can’t wait for the first FF candidate to come to my door.

    ‘Where have you been for the last 40 years?’ They remind me of tescos. Didnt want to know here when there was touble but now think there is profit in coming. Also do I give the brown envelope to the canvassers or do I have to wait until someone gets elected?

  • Derry View

    Actually SDLP vote in Derry fell by 2.4% from 43.4% to 41%

    Sinner vote went up by 2.5% from 30.3% to 32.8%.

    That was considered a good result as the Dissidents mounted a determined effort standing the mother of a hunger-striker and no-one expects them to get anywhere near that vote next time.

    So the Sinners even if they stand still will improve on this (their highest vote ever) and given the divisions in the Stoop ranks in Derry and the open hostility to Durkan from old time SDLP members it is likely they will lose at least two seats to the Sinners next time out.

    The Stoops losing their majority in Derry would be the final blow for them as they would have no power anywhere.

    South Down is going Sinner, South Belfast is going DUP and Derry is likely to go Sinner unless the Stoops have the courage to dump Durkan and put Quigley up.

  • BelfastPaul

    If, and it is a big if, this was replicated in an Assembly election then TUV could get 8-10 seats.

    One swift does not a summer make but this is a high vote for a first time turnout.

    SDLP pushed further down the pecking order regarding first preferences.

    The many smug faces of unionism will be frowning or even smugger tonight.

    I intend to set up the Real Really Real Unionist Party and merge with Republican Sinn Fein and go for a Jim Aliister-Ruairi O’Bradaigh version of the chuckle brothers. Any takers?