In the round – a boost for the economy

The economists’ first predictions are in for the impact of the restoration of devolution.
Predictions plus side – Business investment up, consumer spending up, tourism up
Predictions minus side – Public services reduced, higher local taxation, no high end FDI jump
Arguable as a plus or minus – Reduction of public spending, no shift in economic policy

  • jaffa

    Coming into work this morning there was a piece on anti-social bahavour during which the ASBO co-ordinator lady described the inter-agency approach taken to deal with the problem, the meetings, the plans, the bits of paper. It was complex and apparently resisted simple approaches.

    I can’t blame the individual, she sounded competent but the culture that develops that kind of thinking needs tearing down.]

    And we don’t need crappy little changes where no-one gets fired but we don’t change the 100 year old roof on the school. We really need to outsource the civil service to General Electric for a year and let someone like Neutron Jack Welch decimate it.

  • IJP

    Jaffa‘s right.

    “Reduced public services” is not necessarily a bad thing. The only bad thing would be “reduced quality in public services”.

    I’m not convinced by the “no high-end FDI jump” either. Are we producing graduates with the relevant skills for such things? Until we are, should we be pursuing it as priority?

    I think the summary is:
    Devolution means confidence up (+)
    Parties actually running devolution mean no likelihood tough decisions will be taken (-)

  • slug

    IJP is right to focus on skills.

    Attracting back the high-skilled people we have lost will be important.

    Low company tax is only one of a number of things that helps with investtment and its possible overemphasise it.

  • jaffa

    As a returnee (and I was away quite a while) I’d say that keeping graduates on the Island would be an improvement on potentially permanent losses to GB. All-Ireland university application forms should accompany any expansion in 3rd level provision in NI.

  • kensei

    “As a returnee (and I was away quite a while) I’d say that keeping graduates on the Island would be an improvement on potentially permanent losses to GB. All-Ireland university application forms should accompany any expansion in 3rd level provision in NI.”

    Actually, it shouldn’t just be keeping people we should be doing but rather attracting people as well. Work something out North and South to pay university fees for those who go to university here conditional on them working in Ireland for at least 2 years after. Alternatively give bug bursaries. Limit it to key skills if necessary.

  • “All-Ireland university application forms should accompany any expansion in 3rd level provision in NI.”

    It doesn’t do us any good if they’re just moving to Cork or Dublin instead of Manchester or Leeds.

    “Work something out North and South to pay university fees for those who go to university here conditional on them working in Ireland for at least 2 years after.”

    Same applies. Insert a Northern before Ireland and begin discussions (aside from anything else there’s likely to be EU regulations in the way – remember the Scottish tuition fees fiasco?). I’m still not sure if the figures will stack up though.

  • kensei

    “It doesn’t do us any good if they’re just moving to Cork or Dublin instead of Manchester or Leeds.”

    But it will help you if you are pulling in people who studied in Cork or Dublin to Belfast. I’d suggest people who leave for the South are slightly more likely to come back as it’s easier to bounce on and off trains and buses than planes, and they are more likely to be in contact with home. It’s advantageous to stay in UCAS as well, but widening the pool is a good idea.

    “Same applies. Insert a Northern before Ireland and begin discussions (aside from anything else there’s likely to be EU regulations in the way – remember the Scottish tuition fees fiasco?). I’m still not sure if the figures will stack up though.”

    On our own – possibly not. Hence the reason for asking suggesting the Southern Government to be involved, where it might stack up.

    Moreover, there aren’t enough places here, but there is overall in the UK system. The North West could do with a university and cooperation with the South for one to serve the whole area is likely the only way to get it. There are obvious problems with where it is situated of course, but nothign that couldn’t be worked around.

  • slug

    I would rather a new university (or UU spin off) be placed in Belfast. That is where you will be most able to attract students and faculty.

  • DK

    The North West already has two universities – Magee and Coleraine. One in Newry or Portadown would make more sense. Although really it should be in Belfast if you want them to stay….