Turning it on and off?

One of the characteristics of this IMC report, which differs substantially with its past output is its notable reliance on narrative, rather than detailed analysis. But there are a couple of graphs beatings and shootings (darn – links not working) on the record of Loyalist and Republican (not simply IRA) paramilitaries over its term in office which are worth examining in detail. Given the headline analysis is focused on the very near past, this is detail that Unionist sceptics will be looking at closely.Two things to note. One, Loyalists have been consistently the worst offenders by a huge factor. Two, Republican violence has all but stopped. In fact the numbers on the Republican side have been derisory since just before the big deal with Trimble collapsed in early 2003, but, in general terms, they do also show a much greater sensitivity to important political events. This is more obvious in the shooting figures than in those of the beatings. Note how the shootings drop in September 2003 as the run in to the November ’03 elections, and stay low or non existent until just after Christmas. We see a similar, but much less pronounced trough a year later in the period between Leeds Castle and the calling off of the Comprehensive Deal.

This is what the IRA’s critics refer to ‘a capacity to turn it on and off’ and points to the essentially political nature of the IRA’s operation – not to mention its internal discipline. Contrast with the apparently random patterning in the loyalist figures. No doubt the DUP and other sceptics will see this as a severe qualification to an otherwise upbeat assessment of the IRAs management of it’s standing orders of July last year.

Though the optimists are intitled to point to the general trend towards a continuing trend towards a collapse in uncivil behaviours.

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  • GrassyNoel

    ..mmBut not TOO closely, because obviously people aren’t too keen on draeing attention to the facts clearly drawn out by these graphs..that Loyalist paramilitary-style activity is far more prevalent than the Republicans’ over the last 12-18 months, hence the dearth of comments on the thread.

    Predictable

  • kensei

    A useful analogy may be a school inspection. You get the kids to be on their best behaviour, but afterwards things return to a natural level.

    It is not necessarily turning it ‘on’ or ‘off’.

  • Dread Cthulhu

    “One, Loyalists have been consistently the worst offenders by a huge factor. Two, Republican violence has all but stopped”

    Not that you would know this from some of the conversations on this board… likewise, I would be interested in the details of the data — was any effort made to “sort out” those data events that were “personal,” rather than political?

    “This is what the IRA’s critics refer to ‘a capacity to turn it on and off’ and points to the essentially political nature of the IRA’s operation – not to mention its internal discipline. Contrast with the apparently random patterning in the loyalist figures. No doubt the DUP and other sceptics will see this as a severe qualification to an otherwise upbeat assessment of the IRAs management of it’s standing orders of July last year. ”

    Ah, yes, the seasonal “retreat of the goal-posts.” I find it ironic that having better control over the street-soldiers is a black mark, except where it is lacking, in the pro-Union “armies of the night,” where the ROE is “any taig will do.”

  • bag’oshite

    graphs for hoods getin a bitch slap? fer facks sake. i cant comment on how the uda or other loyalists carryout community justice. but as far as i care punishment beatings and knee cappings should if not just continue but increase also. i commend the provies for carrying out internal community justice.
    shoot ’em all hang ’em high

  • bag’oshite

    oh before i get attacked for my extreme views by the liberals. i wonder if the graphs had criminal records included in the facts and figures. persay joe bloggs kneecapped whenever, it would make for intresting reading if it also entailed what he was kneecapped for or had a previous conviction for, say being a peado or a rapist or a house breaker or mudering a 67 year old man as he left a bar and then robbing him. anybody who thinks any of the above should get jail and not shot or kicked to death should see a head shrink