Opening day nerves or last minute feint?

Well that was a day that was rather less than breathelessly billed as having the potential to be more significant than the day the Belfast Agreement was signed. No wonder national and international headlines are getting fewer and farther between. Perhaps it’s scepticism, apathy, or just a growing sentiment that Northern Ireland would better just take itself off and sort out its problems more quietly.

It will be interesting to see what the pundits make of it in tomorrow’s papers. But prima facie, it seemed less than convincing for anyone outside the Nationalist camp, where by and large Sinn Fein’s bona fides are widely accepted regarding their committment to the peace process.

Creative ambiguity or necessary nonsense, Eric Waugh’s prefered jargon, arguably has served the process well. It meant each side could bridge a gap that seemed impossible before. Who in the wake of the Greysteel and Shankill massacres could have believed that we would see two traditions come so close to settling permanently with each other.

But continued deployment of the same tactic after the Belfast Agreement has had a increasingly corrosive effect on the ability of either side to make a deal with the other that sticks.

However the most problematic statement didn’t emanate from the Republican movement this time. General de Chastellan’s refusal to give Unionists anything with which to independently measure the extent of the IRA’s latest de-commissioning move renders it almost null and void in the eyes of anyone but its own most loyal supporters.

It may not be a fatal blow to the Agreement (that can only be delivered by the election itself) but we might judge from David Trimble’s first public reaction that it is not anything approaching what he expected after his series of meetings with Gerry Adams. Clarification may come within the next few days. But if it comes much later, it may be too late for David Trimble and the Belfast Agreement.

In which case enter the DUP. A party which will no doubt be taking copious notes on the Republican movement’s approach to negotiating with Unionists.

Mick Fealty

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty