Gregory Campbell: where now?

The DUP MP Gregory Campbell argues here on Slugger O’Toole, that the British government’s policy of putting off the day of elections has run its course. He believes a re-newed democrat mandate can presage a new deal that will allow all Unionists to finally sign up to a peaceful long term settlement.

By Gregory Campbell MP

The Ulster Unionist Council has now met yet again and decided as it has done in the past to back it’s leader by about the same percentage as before. This time the issue was the decision of half the Parliamentary Party to resign the whip at Westminster over that Party’s stance on the Joint Declaration by the British and Irish Governments.

Autumn elections?

The ‘Peace process’ is in crisis, of that there can be no doubt. When Tony Blair postponed the elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly last May, then postponed them again ostensibly to the “Autumn” whenever that might be, the problems were magnified. The election postponements came in the wake of FOUR breakdowns in devolution over the past five years. Many observers believe the election decisions by Blair were more to do with the fact that the Government knows Trimble is in deep dodo among ordinary Unionist voters, indeed private Northern Ireland Office polling would seem to back up this analysis. It seems like when in difficulties put off the evil day. What on earth will Blair do in the next few weeks when even the Downing Street elasticated interpretation of an “Autumn election” begins to see the last of the brown leaves wither and die?

Simplicity in saving Trimble!

There can be no doubt Blair wishes to try and salvage Trimble, his trouble is of course that the Unionist voters do not share his magnanimity. It seems that there is an admission by the Government that Unionists have lost all confidence in the Belfast Agreement to deliver, but there still isn’t the realisation as to what this means. Blair still thinks if the IRA will publicly demonstrate their departure from violence that the Unionist voters will then in some way see that Trimble was right all along, Blair calls the election, Trimble is restored along with a minor review of the workings of the Agreement and hey presto devolution is back.

Real world politics

This demonstrates a total lack of understanding regarding why Unionist are so appalled at the Agreement. It isn’t just the fact that the IRA has been able to extract concession after concession from the process while remaining fully armed. It’s not just that the man who has confessed to being the “second in command” of the IRA in Londonderry was the Education Minister under that system. It is more than that, if the entire process is based upon an inherently false premise that Nationalism/Republicanism needs a leg up to make it equal to Unionism then Unionists who already felt disenfranchised before the system took effect will obviously oppose that process.

The way forward

Now if there is an acceptance that among both communities there is resentment, anger and frustration and a new system needs to be worked out that can command support from both those sections then some progress is possible. Meanwhile of course violence continues, a relatively peaceful summer marching season does not mask the fact that comparing the violence statistics for the five years since the Agreement with the five years before it there has been a massive recent upward curve. If violence is up and democracy is down, how on earth can any Government claim success?

It is time for a fresh start. Elections followed by a period of intensive discussions aimed at bringing about a system of Government that can command support from both sections of our divided community has to be the way forward. Those who think there is mileage in further flogging the dead horse of the 1998 Agreement have to wake up to the new realities.

Mick Fealty

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty