DUP set to eclipse UUP?

The redoubtable anti-Agreement Stormont Watchman is back at his post in the Electric Review with some vigour. He begins by arguing that Alex Kane (who features as a counter reference for much of the the article) has wrongly identified precisely who the political dinosaurs are in Northern Ireland.

He warns against the idea that Trimble can continue by simply dropping the rebels:

Alex Kane and others have come to the same conclusion about the current crisis, believing that their leader should dispose of Donaldson, whatever the cost � this is known as the �change the electorate� option. That might solve one immediate problem but create other longer term ones. It�s not just that others would go with him, which would enfeeble an already weakening party. Donaldson and co. are needed to deliver anti-Agreement, anti-DUP votes which will paradoxically prop up Trimble.

And later:

Shot of Donaldson, Trimble really will lead a united pro-Agreement party, but for all that the likes of Alex Kane fondly claim about a �silent pro-Agreement majority�, it would soon be decimated by a DUP that would suddenly and inexplicably look far more inclusive. Imagine the run-up to an Assembly polling day, with DUP man Donaldson, along with Robinson and Dodds, hammering his former leader as a patsy.

His view of the future is interesting from what appears to have been, up till now at least, a UUP loyalist:

The easiest way out for the party is for Mr Trimble, the catalyst for division, to go quietly. That seems less likely than ever, even with all the past electoral reverses and with worse to come. Otherwise, the feuding will continue at a lower level. Donaldson, Smyth and Burnside will join with the DUP in opposing the implementation of the Joint Declaration when the Bills reach the Commons, which will be a constant source of embarrassment and possibly of further dissension. Ian Paisley will, for the first time, lay the wreath at the Cenotaph in November after Charlie Kennedy instead of David Trimble � a powerful symbol to Middle Ulster of changing times. The UUs will stagger on as the DUP (the �New DUP� anyone?) consolidates existing support and moves deeper into the soft underbelly of UU ie Donaldson�s core constituency of anti Agreement but (hitherto) anti-Paisley unionists.

Mick Fealty

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty