Alex Kane is clearly running out of patience with the endless to and froing of internal politics within his own UUP. He believes that although David Trimble will win the next vote in UUC, the winning margin will not be decisive enough for him to remain in control of what appears to be an increasing disorientated political vehicle. He advocates the party’s disaffliation from the UUC, to give Trimble the free hand he needs to lead pro-Agreement Unionism effectively.
By Alex Kane
The Natural History Museum in London is a hugely enjoyable place to spend a few hours. I was wandering around the dinosaur section last week, musing upon the extinction of the species, which had once dominated the landscape and shaped the environment about it. Around the walls were samples of some of the theories propounded to explain their demise: a huge meteor, sheer boredom, mass suicide, and even an argument that the gas from their enormous piles of excrement poisoned them!
As I thought of old monsters knee deep in their own doo-doo, my mind was irresistibly drawn to the Ulster Unionist Council. The antics of this particular monster have shifted from clumsiness to high octane farce. Having called a meeting a few weeks ago, lost the vote, and then deciding to ignore the outcome entirely, the very same people are preparing to recall the UUC to ask it to endorse their rebellion by giving them the green light for a formal civil war.
In a column on June 16th, I wrote; �It is the leadership issue which needs to be resolved on Monday evening. That is why it will be a defining moment for Ulster Unionism.� Two weeks earlier, I had argued; �In electoral terms David Trimble has more options available, and certainly a wider voting appeal, by unhitching himself from the UUC and leading a party which he controls and which offers unambiguous policies to the electorate.� I predicted, too, that his internal opponents would ignore the result if they lost and choose, instead, � to opt for open and ongoing warfare.�
David Trimble will probably clear the next UUC hurdle, but the blunt reality of the situation is that an 8-10 per cent margin will not amount to victory or control. No-one actually believes that the UUP is a single party anyway. It has no effective or authoritative source of leadership and David Trimble is incapable of crushing his opposition. That is not his fault as a leader. Rather, it is the fault of a cumbersome constitution, a tradition of organizational and constituency autonomy, a tolerance of self-indulgent publicity seekers, and the lingering belief that a modern political party should encourage the palpably destructive culture of the �broad church� approach to decision-making and internal dissent.
Put simply, David Trimble cannot win the pro-Union, pro-Agreement battle from inside the UUP as it is presently structured. And it is equally clear that there are people behind Jeffrey Donaldson who are prepared to destroy the party in order to get rid of David Trimble. It is worth bearing in mind that some of these people are promoting an Empey/Donaldson dream ticket, believing Sir Reg to be easier to control and manipulate than Trimble. Some former Trimble loyalists are wavering and history suggests that wavers veer to the side which seems strongest.
The choice facing Mr. Trimble is not a pleasant one. He can continue to lead a slim majority faction within the party, knowing that he will be hindered at every turn by a vitriolic clique which will stop at nothing to topple him. Or, he can hang around like an impotent puppet, waiting to be deposed when his opponents get the 1+ vote they need to defeat him at a future meeting of the UUC. Not much of a choice, really.
He has nothing to lose, therefore, by creating a third choice for himself. It is not necessary for the Ulster Unionist Party to be affiliated to the Ulster Unionist Council, particularly if a majority of its members decide otherwise. The party does not need to remain affiliated to a Council whose structures and rules are being exploited and abused by individuals and organizations opposed to both the leadership and party policy. In other words, why choose to remain a hostage to an internal opposition which he cannot contain or remove, when he could, instead, lead a party that was not bound by the UUC?
Time is on his side, for I don�t believe there will be elections this year. They were postponed earlier, not, as some cynics sneer, to �Save Dave,� but because the government wants a clear-cut result. Tony Blair does not want an election that produces renegotiation or a vacuum. He wants an election that delivers government. Such a result is not likely in the immediate future.
From the pro-Union, pro-Agreement point of view—a much bigger constituency than Mr. Donaldson and the DUP may imagine—it is essential that a credible and vote-worthy political vehicle is in place when that election arrives. The UUP, in its present form at least, is not that vehicle. If David Trimble doesn�t move soon, and move with a ruthlessness he has failed to display in the past, then that vehicle will never be put on the road. He has time, but it is limited. So, too, is the patience of many of his supporters.
First published in the Newsletter on Saturday 23rd August.
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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