Elections, or no elections?

Brian Cowen is again calling for elections in the autumn time. However with the crisis in the UUP now likely to reach a resolution until September at the earliest, it is unlikely that Tony Blair would seek to reward David Trimble with what would more than likely be a death blow to his future as leader.

Some commentators have privately questioned the real appetite for elections within Sinn Fein too. They are unlikely to make substantial electoral progress against their nationalist rivals in the SDLP they might have hoped for in May, without a substantial move on decommissioning, which in turn they may want to keep as a card to play should Trimble be deposed as the nominal head of Unionism.

The SDLP and the DUP on the other hand would have little to loose from early elections. During the length of the UUP’s troubles the DUP has been crafting itself as a dynamic new willing to dialogue with nationalists, but with a range of policies that reflects the politically conservative values of their constituency. They have also made it clear that any review of the agreement should take place with the renewed democratic mandate at the polls – one that if held in October would almost certainly put them in the poll position for leadership of Unionism.

There is much frustration within the SDLP that the clear Green water between themselves and Sinn Fein has slowly been erroded over the years of the peace process. This rarely finds its way into the party’s public statements, but is very obvious in private, or at off record events. October elections in the absence of a major decommissioning act, would give them the opportunity to consolidate some of their mainstream voters toward Sinn Fein.

So will Cowen get his way? At the moment it looks unlikely. Though if the UUP resolves its difference, with either a formal split or a victory for the rebels, there may be no real incentive for the British government to withold. Watch this space!

Mick Fealty

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty