Brian Walker takes his lead from the upbeat noises coming from the British government:
A significantly different scenario from May’s disaster is now being offered. The message emerging from Government is: we won’t give guarantees that could weaken our leverage with the IRA, but we’ll lay odds on an election in the autumn. This time the poll will not be so starkly conditional on IRA “clarity” over disarmament, if only because it mightn’t be necessary.
But what the IRA offered in May, including another act of decommissioning, can be offered again. This time however, a unilateral IRA initiative alone will not do the trick. To build trust, IRA disarmament requires monitoring by the IMB, with sanctions added for breaches. The IMB is looming large as a key instrument for restoring the Assembly.
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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