Clearly the dissident wing of the UUP is preparing to make another move on the authority of its party leader at the next Council meeting. Ostensibly its purpose is to provide clarity:
…in the party’s attitude to the joint declaration which offers much to republicans and nothing to unionists. They are not in the mood for another fudge. Rejecting the joint declaration is also the only way to safeguard the future of the Royal Irish Regiment.
Leading party dissident David Burnside added his voice, suggesting that the party’s message was confusing.
But the real issue is party unity. In the run up to the elections, the dissidents effectively splintered from the leadership when Jeffrey Donaldson called for elections even as David Trimble was lobbying hard for them to be postponed. This despite being the author previously of numerous calls for overall Unionist unity.
The UUP’s party executive meets next Friday to set the agenda for the council meeting. The party leader can either try to patch up and make up with his internal opponents, or decide to break away from the old structures and reframe the party for a more professional age in politics.
So are we in for a split in the UUP?
On first look it doesn’t look easy for the leader. His support inside the ruling Ulster Unionist Council is weak. However insiders insist that not only does he command the loyalty of the party’s grass roots and a large majority of the current MLAs – he stands to bring a much larger group of the so-called garden centre prods (ie the middle class) back into politics. That is, if he were to act swiftly and decisively.
Much as Trimble is a natural conciliator, if he goes for the deal on offer from his internal dissidents he will almost literally be bound hand and feet in any negotiations with outside parties – Unionist or Nationalist, or indeed the British and Irish governments. In effect, the party would cease to be a player.
A definative split might suit both sides. Many anti-agreement UUP member are continually frustrated by their leader’s continued espousal of a position that they vehemently and profoundly disagree with. For all manner of cultural and political reasons they do not want to move across to the DUP – indeed some may not even be welcomed there.
For members left inside the party, they would be able to crack on with a modernising structures, methods and fundraising and above all the party discipline, that would provde them with the promise of giving the DUP a run for their money in 6 to 12 months time.
It might auger well for Nationalists too, who have been growing increasingly frustrated with the on-off nature of the implimentation of the Belfast Agreement. A clear and decisive Unionism may help get the democratic process back on the road sooner rather than later.
For now the discussion, begun with an article by UUP commentator Alex Kane in this morning’s print version of the Belfast Newsletter which lays out 4 possible scenarios (we hope to bring you the full text), will no doubt continue to rumble. We’ll bring you more as it occurs.
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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