Friday, February 15, 2008
“Poor Edwin”
So says Jim Allister on last night’s H&M.
Many will say that one cannot draw too many conclusions from a local government by-election. And they’re right. I worked a bit on the Larne Lough DEA by-election in 2004, occasional Slugger commenter Andy Wilson won the election, yet Roy Beggs still lost the following Westminster election heavily. Yet there are significant differences here (one being that Andy had the good forethought to become a father during the campaign). The preceding council election in Larne Lough had the UUP well ahead of the DUP, the following council election UUP and DUP were roughly equal. In Dromore we overturned a significant DUP lead from 2005 to be neck and neck in 2008. DUP strategists were telling UUP canvassers they would be amazed if we failed to win in Larne. In Dromore, the media wrote us off as an afterthought, and to an extent, they have been embarrassed every bit as acutely as the DUP.
I wont go into any where as much detail as fair deal and Turgon have, I think that in particular Turgon’s analysis covers the bases that I would have, had I been quicker off the mark. My only further thought is that we could meander into a position where those who believe that power sharing is in the medium term best interests of Northern Ireland vote UUP, those who don’t vote TUV, and the question of “what are they for again?” turns from my party, to the DUP. And wow but don’t they deserve it.
The next major election is Europe 2009. The DUP’s fox of standing two candidates has probably been shot by a small by-election in Co Down, and the broader Euro election looks now like it could be a three way fight for two Unionist seats. People will cry Unionism will lose a seat as a result, I don’t believe that it will. I reckon the next Euro election will be a much more exciting affair following yesterday, and all because the DUP aren’t today the invincible electoral machine they were thought to be at the start of the week.
Michael Shilliday @ 03:44 PM
Well well well Michael Shilliday comes back in from the cold now that he has something to shout about. I take no lectures from a party that tells me i am not a decent person simply because i do not vote UUP. The arrogance of you and your party still to this day Michael. Please compare and contrast these two following statements:
“one cannot draw too many conclusions from a local government by-election. And they’re right”
with
“the question of “what are they for again?” turns from my party, to the DUP. And wow but don’t they deserve it.”
Seems to be vastly overestimating the impotance of a by election result does it not?? A by election victory that was won on the basis of a DUP split is hardly a victory for the UUP in fact they simply played the part of the SDLP in South Belfast in 2005. I admit that i worte off Carol Black in this election but i do not see it as a ringing endorsement for the UUP either. In fact i think Reg will see this as an endorsement of his (non)strategy for winning back all those lost UUP voters stuck in their gardens. To be honest i am quite happy with that, the arrogant we’re here so of course we should be at the centre of things didn’t work for the UUP last year, so i have no problems in them prolonging their strategy.
BTW as Basil McCrea’s spin doc i was wondering when the welcome bash is being held for your new member?? To be a fly on the wall........
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 04:14 PMDon’t know what Michael’s gloating about - the UUP vote was down by 7% also. Though its interesting to watch all those UUs sucking up to Jim now - “enemy of my enemy is my friend” - new UU strategy?
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 04:18 PMI said that it COULD happen, not that it HAS happened. Do keep up.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 04:18 PMFor something that everyone seems to agree was an inconsequential happening, it sure has generated a lot of comment and analysis.
Maybe we should sacrifice a goat and have a look at its entrails to be more sure of what the future holds.Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 04:23 PMMichael Shilliday,
When Mark Twain returned from college he was amazed how much his father had learnt in the meantime.You have now had three cracks at this university/polytechnic lark and it would appear to some of us that both you must have not taken a lot on board to pass on. By the way where was the LVA vice chairperson during this campaign?Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 04:32 PMMust say, irrespective of my opinion on current arrangements, Allister tore Poots to shreds last night.
Striking as well that Poots sounded so much like a post-GFA Trimbleite and Allister like an articulate DUPper of that time. It really was deja vu with different actors.Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 04:43 PMWell done Michael!
Jim Nicholson is so gonna top the poll in the next Euro elections!
I do hope Reg appoints you or someone who shares your charisma and intelligence to the post of Chief Election Strategist! You are very worthy of the post of noble one.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 04:56 PMGood programme - clips at end very funny. As for the “debate” Poots showed his bigoted colurs through his comments on Irish and Allister was his usual mocking self.
The difference between the two - the DUP say no to republicans to their face whilst TUV won’t talk to them at all.
I repeat what is so noticeable about politics there is the sheer intensity of it all - two thirds of the main political programme on a council by-election. Remarkable (and 885 threads on slugger!).Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 04:57 PMThe Penguin
Do you think so? I am not so sure. Allister might be a better public speaker but he came over as the hectoring, arrogant bully that he is . His blindness to his own personality faults a la Robert McCartney in my view means that he is going nowhere and I expect he has only beentolerated in the DUP due to being able to sideline him to Europe. Mr Poots rose in my esteem slightly due to his seeming reasonableness and to me genuine talk about a better future for his own children.
Facts are that Allister is talking about getting 700 odd votes of the @ 3700 cast in total with 80% of the local electorate voting for pro agreement devolution parties.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 04:57 PMWhat exactly does Jim Allister offer the electorate?
He is a protest candidate just as his puppet Keith Harbinson was.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 05:03 PMCould we have back whatever used to prevent the term bigot being weilded all the time? Otherwise everyone you don’t agree with becomes a bigot. Or with our nationalist posters everyone who is a unionist gets written off as a bigot/
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 05:13 PMWhat exactly does Jim Allister offer the electorate?
Posted by Loyal Ulster Unionist on Feb 15, 2008 @ 04:03 PM
I remember similar questions being asked of the DUP as recently as the last election. It’s very easy to be dogmatic when you have no power, the rules of the game changes somewhat when you face a higher fall from grace.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 05:24 PMNaughty Naughty Michael, sucking up to that.
I am of the opinion UUP yoof offisur Kenneth Donaldson would not approve
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 05:27 PMBigot definition:
a prejudiced person who is intolerant of any opinions differing from his own
Poots “(If Allister had his way)...you would have faced the position where the Irish language was being brought into Northern Ireland- when you crossed the border tou would have seen no difference between what was going on in Northern Ireland and the Republic”
Donaldson “In the kind of future offered by Jim Allister, you won’t be able to tell the difference between Dromore and Drogheda.”
I use the term when it fits.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 05:27 PMWhen the IRA Army Council goes would Jim Allister enter a power-sharing executive?
Would Jim Allister like to be First Minister?
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 05:29 PMMany will say that one cannot draw too many conclusions from a local government by-election. So says Michael Shilliday.
Two conclusions can be drawn (1) The DUP vote went down alot (2) The UUP vote is still going down....after already going down a lot.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 05:32 PMIts quite easy to see what JA stands for,
No terrorists in government.
A change to the un-democratic system of Mandatory coalition.
Opposing the dismanteling of our education system.
etc etc etc......This is just the usual DUP line! Everyone who doesnt support us is a nut, a flat earther or a has been.
The reality is that JA has made his position and policy very clear. The DUP is just choosing to not listen!
Hope the leadership of the DUP have fun in Portugal this weekend! Over paid? NEVER!
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 05:34 PMAs mentioned before, we can no longer get H&M;outside of the UK.
Does anyone have a youtube link?Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 05:42 PMOtherwise everyone you don’t agree with becomes a bigot. Or with our nationalist posters everyone who is a unionist gets written off as a bigot
I think that we can generally agree that almost all Unionists are bigots and almost all Nationalists terrorists.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 05:50 PMWhat struck me about the interview is how a Government Minister, who is supposedly neutral, can openly admit on tv that he is against the promotion of NI’s native language.
We all knew it to be true but to publicly state that he does not want ‘to bring the Irish language into Northern Ireland’ is not only shockingly biased but also insulting to the thousands of people who speak Gaelic here every day.
Only here could a Minister get away with such an out-dated and bigoted statement.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 06:19 PMAgreed RG Cuan (Bad news from here btw - Mae’n ben ar Y BYD)
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 06:23 PMSpeaking of dinosaurs....
always wondered how creationists deal with the possibility of life on other planets....
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 06:57 PMA common thread through all the by-election blogs, the DUPes are hurting, on a more serious note, how many of the Ulster Unionists that defected with wee Jeff are still in the DUP, word is not many?
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 06:59 PMJim did perform well, problem is that he is just so unlikeable.
He has exactly the same voice and way of talking that the guy who played Tash, the ultimate embodiment of evil, in the Narnian tales!
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 07:09 PMDewi
you say bigot, I say language fascist, let’s call the whole thing off…
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 07:32 PM
