If Robinson pitches for Catholic votes, where does that leave nationalism?
There’s a long distance between Catholics preferring to stay where they are and getting them to actively vote for Unionist parties. But that’s what Peter Robinson’s pitching for. Good luck to him, though as Conal McDevitt points out there’s a considerable way to go to convince people the politics emanating from OFMdFM is not business as usual.
Robinson has some form on this, as Pete pointed out the day he took up the baton from his former leader to become the second DUP MLA to hold the post of First Minister.
Saying is not the same as doing. But just making the pitch makes a difference in how you are viewed. If it does not convert voters in any numbers, it might at least have the effect of removing the ‘anti Unionist’ motivation that impells so many nationalists to get out in vote.
Jude Collins captures it particularly well:
The question that faces those of us with a political interest/motivation is: what direction would we like to see public opinion move? If we’re nationalist/republican, we’ll want to argue our case, present evidence, show that being grown-up politically involves the responsibility of being like other countries, running our own affairs, not having them run by the man next door, no matter how nice or rich he is. If we’re unionist at heart, we’ll want to argue our case for having decisions made by Mother Britain and do all we can to convince nationalist/republicans that theirs is a lost cause.
But on Wednesday in the Irish News Brian Feeney articulated the ultimate of all inconvenient truths for political nationalism. Since the Belfast Agreement, northern Irish nationalists have simply never had it so good:
Now are Sinn Fein really asking northern nationalists to give up all this power and status and submit themselves to being a minority in a bankrupt state where all the goodies have already been divvied up among unfriendly cronyism.
Elephant? What elephant?
Topic: Government, Politics, Society and Culture
Region: Ireland, Northern Ireland
Perseus
> “I accept that the juxtaposition of liberal and dominant
> is a difficult concept to grasp…”
No, it’s the juxtaposition of “DUP/SF” and “Liberal” that’s difficult o grasp.
Did I say difficult? Sorry I meant impossible.
Where does this leave nationalism?
Where it always has been – the voice of northern Catholics. This type of talk gets wheeled out all the time and I take it with the exact same pinch of salt as I would an “outreach” from a certain Gerry Adams towards unionism.
Words are cheap. There are no Catholic Unionist MLAs, and I am also unaware of any Catholic unionist councillors so unless Mr Robinson is going to put his money where his mouth is and produce a raft of Catholic candidates in winnable unionist seats at the next election, it will just have be chalked off as hot air.
I do think that pretty much all the parties apart from Alliance would need a major rebrand, name change and refocus to have any chance of appealing to the other side.
SF need to lose IRA / Troubles baggage; DUP need to lose Paisley baggage; SDLP needs to lose Humist green baggage; UUP needs to lose the 1921-72 baggage.
Given that they’ve all either hit their limits or slumped badly now in one way or another, why doesn’t one of them try this? The first step in actually radically changing what you’re about is to start acting like you’ve changed.
UCU-NF’s problem was that the UUP were never actually 100% behind the idea.
Jesus wept. I can’t wait to see the charm offensive that Peter has up his sleeve that will have Catholics tripping over themselves to vote for Nelson, Gregory, Willie and Ruth.
As a few other posters have said, I agree that this is a simple pitch to the moderate unionist who has historically seen the DUP as to ‘extreme’ for them? They are going for the Alliance and UUP vote.
But fair play to him. We all raise a wry smile when Sinn fein claim that they get loads of working class unionist votes. They’ve been doing that for a while.
The funny thing is that the SDLP do get protestant votes (but that is interpeted as being a further example of being weak on a United Ireland), UUP do get catholic votes (but that is interpreted as being a further example of being weak in championing protestants and unionists).
It seems the SDLP and UUP are just damned whatever they do. The future is Sinn Fein and DUP and they have the ability to whipe out the other two with the right soothing noises. After considilating their positions, this is the logical next step.
PaddyReilly -Thought this would be an appropriate moment to announce the All-Ireland voting (Dáil + Stormont) for 2011. First preference. For reference only. Just so you can see the degree partition creates insoluble problems which would otherwise be soluble.
Fine Gael 801,628 27.64%
Labour 431,796 14.89%
SF 398,885 13.75%
FF 387,358 13.36%
INDs(Rep) 279,459 9.63%
DUP 198,436 6.84%
SDLP 94,286 3.25%
UUP 87,531 3.01%
Alliance 50,875 1.75%
Green 47,070 1.62%
Socialist 27,589 0.95%
Pb4P 26,989 0.93%
TUV 16,480 0.56%
S Kerry IA 4,939
WP 4,211
UKIP 4,152
INDs (NI) 3,003
Prog Un NI 1,493
BNP 1,252
In total, 2,899,580 votes were cast. The total Unionist vote is about 11%.
In the space of 4 years FFs vote dropped from 41.2% to 13.36%.A 60% decrease.FG/Labour party policies towards the unemployed are going to back-fire.Trying to force people,grown men,to work for their unemployment benifit is not going down well in dublin.They’re threatening people to work for nothing,(7.5k)while at the same time giving State Managers a salary cap of 200k,and it’s making them look as bankrupt as the workers party and sf.Sf don’t forget,were selling they’re own water two years ago,and are in exactly the position that James Connolly predicted the ‘rising buergeoise’ would be in 1913(Erins Hope).Peter Robinson pitching for catholic votes looks good,but it only adds another layer to the veil of the face of failure.Paddyr hit the nail on the head-Partition has created insoluble problems which would otherwise have been soluble,and that brings us full-circle to the Carnival of reaction,with approximately 50% of the population living below the poverty line.The struggle is not between catholic and protestant,it’s between the needy and the greedy,the rich and the poor.
Successful politics here seems to me to be identifying your tribe and playing up attacks on your tribe to give a sense of belonging. A lot of people think being unbranded from tribal politics gives you more room for growth but the good Ulster folk just don’t get what you stand for then. In attracting the liberal unionist, he may drop more votes out the other end.
CS,
It’s all relative. As a mutual friend of ours once said to me, when given the choice between a liberal and a politician adopting a liberal position, liberals will vote for the liberal first and foremost.
I would not expect the DUP to pitch for Catholic votes on their ‘liberalism’, but on where there might be shared values. That’s likely to be some forms of conservativism; economic and social. Under Robinson we are likely to see a further filtering out of the more regressive and backward looking voices. Unlike Reg, he has sufficient power to trade.
George,
“Where does that leave Nationalism?”
If it is true that less than 50% of Catholics in NI currently want a united Ireland it does not mean they are about to jump ship to political unionism, but it does mean that political unionism may have been fighting an unnecessarily reductive fight.
If this is true there is a opportunity here for political unionism to take a more expansive view of its mission. Just look at the quote from Chris Thornton back in Dec 2002. It’s taken until now (to tidy away several political messes) for Robinson to begin to articulate that message.
Whatever you think about that, it is a move. I’m scratching my head to understand what political nationalism’s counter move is, other than wait to see it fail. My view is that that is foolish, and leaves nationalism open to talking up ridiculous talking points when survey’s like the NILT demonstrates the historical determinism that has been sustaining the fantasy that it will all fall into nationalism’s lap as Catholics outbreed Prods.
NB, I asked the question to provoke thought, not to force people onto the defensive.
If it is true that less than 50% of Catholics in NI currently want a united Ireland it does not mean they are about to jump ship to political unionism, but it does mean that political unionism may have been fighting an unnecessarily reductive fight.
Fallacy here- Unionism has never been about preserving the Union, it is about preserving power (office, wealth) for people who style themselves Unionist. Loyalty is primarily loyalty to self. The Union is only valuable because it benefits Unionists.
The two enemies of the Unionist people are 1) Irish Nationalists and 2) the British. The British are needed to fight off the Irish Nationalists, but when that has been achieved they have to be defied, threatened and out-manoeuvred. Unionists do not want the British egalitarianism, wishy-washy liberalism, godless disregard for the rights of the covenanted people and spineless acceptance of European imposed Human Rights.
The Ulster plantation, if it is to survive, requires constant weeding. It requires that the right sort are placed in office. The British are too stupid to see this.
More warm words from Robinson. He must realise that with Nelson et al in the party he has little chance of carrying any Catholic votes. Perhaps the real political motivation is to steal more ground in the middle from the UUP – expanding the centre vote and further weakening the UUP.
Paddy you havn’t a clue and sadly I suspect you are expressing the standard republican view of Unionists. How disgusting for you to say the majority in Northern Ireland have no principles, morals or political conviction but instead are just mercenary spongers, because that is what your implying. Can I tell you simply I am a Unionist because I am BRITISH, London is my capital, English is my language, the BBC is my main entertainer and news provider, the NHS is my health service, the British Army is my army, and so many other things, most of which my Catholic neighbours would also share. I can’t see how wealth and office comes into it, in fact during the “boom years” the Republic probably offered both of these in abundance it seemed, but it attracted few “converts”. So I would suggest you actually get out there and talk to a few more Unionist a hear some reality, and maybe we need to do the same with the catholic unionist.
British you may or may not be, but Unionism is not an organisation for ensuring the obtainability of the BBC, Twining’s Tea and cheap excursions to London. It is a movement for obtaining political power for itself, through providing some sort of pecuniary advantage for its voters.
Whatever you think about that, it is a move. I’m scratching my head to understand what political nationalism’s counter move is, other than wait to see it fail.
Mick
Chronologically you’re incorrect. Nationalism has been making such positive soundbytes for a while now, so this would appear to be the second counter move from political unionism (following on from the UCUNF disaster.)
Ultimately, however, soundbytes will remain just that as the steps required to actually succeed in cultivating a catholic vote for unionism are beyond what unionist parties would countenance as they would necessitate ending unionism’s war with all things Irish- sporting, language and culture- as well as requiring a willingness to accomodate and legitimise the Irish nationalist identity of those they seek to court.
The flip side is, of course, true for nationalists, though at least Sinn Fein, the SDLP and southern parties have now effectively altered their political vocabulary in an attempt to find a place for the British identity of unionists within their ideal all-Ireland entity of the future.
Still baby steps, mind you, and Sinn Fein’s unwillingness to pull out all the stops to hold onto Billy Leonard as a protestant party representative with a past background reflective of many unionists suggests there remains considerable grounds to doubt the seriousness of the pary’s intentions in this regard.
Although I’m no fan, and cannot see myself ever becoming one, I have to admit Robinson is ahead of the curve here.
If, as it seems, he and his coterie (though obviously not the DUP as a whole, which is still in the slow-learners stream) are thinking ahead, and redefining their “unionism” for a post-devolutionary and developing situation, good luck to him. This is the best time in the electoral cycle for such musing.
Outside a dyed-in-the-wool flock of “nationalists” in NI, a breed largely extinct elsewhere except in the bars of Brooklyn and Boston, in the other green fields the same process is underway.
The main fault of the so called Irish Republican movement …(or should that be ‘pseudo’ Irish Republican movement) is it’s inability to recognize the very British and Unionist folk of NI…just like Drumlins Rock – and NI is home to over 800,000 of such folk.
To counter such a move by Peter Robinson the Irish Republican movement will have to alter it’s current strategy -perhaps adhere to true Republican values. The playing field is now the political arena – grabbing NI peoples votes (not bombing them into a United Ireland)
By clearing out most of the current Sinn Féin leadership that have a chequered past associated with the Troubles would be a start. The likes of Pierce Doherty will make an excellent future leader of Sinn Féin. Also Sinn Féin should drop the unappealing Marxist/Socialist mumbo jumbo and recognise the reality of business and economics of today.
It’s understandable why NI Catholics might vote for Robinson yet it’s even more understandable why Unionist folk would never vote for the current Sinn Féin lot and it’s association with past murders, bombings, ‘war’ crimes or plain crimes!
Sinn Féin’s goal of a United Ireland is even further away should Robinson win Catholic votes and should Sinn Féin never wish to appeal to the Unionist community.
Afterall who wants 800,000 beligerant and angry Unionists living in a United Ireland.
[...] [...]
I would still think that most Catholic Unionists would back the Alliance, UUP or the SDLP.
Many Catholic Unionists would be GB & Emigrant Catholics who don’t know what the DUP actually is other than being “Little Ulstermen” naturally there are others, disillusioned nationalists perhaps as well as mix marriage Catholics, Anglo-Catholics, cultural Catholics etc.
I will say that it’ll take more than backing integrated education to win them over.
FuturePhysicist,
“I would still think that most Catholic Unionists would back the Alliance, UUP or the SDLP”
Alliance and SDLP, yes but not the UUP. Tom Elliot’s elevation to the leadership and his public utterances since the UUP leadership campaign have reinfoced Catholic prejudice the UUP.
About the DUP
“I will say that it’ll take more than backing integrated education to win them over”
Agreed but Robinson is certainly moving in the right direction. Furthermore, despite his party’s “little ulsterman” past, he has not got far to go before his party becomes the preferred choice amongst Catholic voters whenever there is nothing else on offer except a carve-up between the DUP and the UUP.
Seymour, look at the transfers from the last election, on the few occasions when transfers go nationalist to Unionist it is overwhelmingly to UUP candidates.
Thats very true DR, but the amount of transfers from nationalists has dropped to nearly have what it was in 2007 (Prominent orange man leading the UUP is where I lay the blame).
The liberal message from the DUP is about gaining ground in form extra seats, should the current constituencies be around in 2015, although i have a strong feeling they won’t.
Had the DUP had four candidates in East Belfast and North Down, I think they would have stood a very good chance of getting them both elected. They had spare first preference votes in North Down, and outpolled the UUP nearly 5:1 in East Belfast to make a good shot at it.
At the next election (with uup under elliot) the DUP will wipe the UUP out in Belfast. Thats Peter Robinson’s goal.
I’m still wary of the poll figures in the NILT on that particular vote. My guess would be a lot of the non-nationalist sentiment expressed by Catholics could well be ‘soft’ in nature – going with whatever seems to be the majority will as they are bored or disengaged with the nationalist project. But if there were a Catholic majority, I suspect a lot may be very quickly converted to Irish nationalism again.
Unionist parties have to do more than flirt with this constituency if they want to effect long term change in voting patterns – they have to understand and accommodate their values. I’m not sure if the DUP could do that and stay together as a party – the stretch with the irridentist right of the party could be too much. But it is an interesting and good thing for them to thinking about, for sure. I hope they are serious.
Here’s the evolution. People are frustrated with the choices they have to play with. They want to change but their opportunities to do so are limited. Moving from UUP to DUP or SDLP to SF is hardly a radical shift so more and more people are considering what is going to be a game changer in their voting pattern. There is a culture of participating here in elections so people will try not to get to the apathy of not voting although that is happening too. Therefore what to do? Well by voting across patterns messages can be sent that status quo is not an option then that is where the energy will go.
in the last election I wanted to send a message to the local candidates that I don;t care a toss about their constitutional position – there will be plenty of time for that in the future. I care for issue based politics and I care for personality. I am no longer prepared to vote for the party monkey.
For the first time I voted across the boundaries as if they weren’t there – GP, SDLP, DUP, UUP and finally SF. In the local elections I voted different patterns depending on the candidates there too.
I don’t know where this realisation sits in the bigger picture but I tell you what it felt a bit liberating and a welcome change from the depressing feeling coming out of the booth with the sense that nothing will change.
With a limited choice people are yearning for some form of creativity and I get the sense that is where the NILT responses are coming from. Creativity is sought – not in constitutional terms but in genuine effectiveness on the big policies.
george 1,02a.m.
The headline should more accuratwely read, ‘If Robinson successfully pitches for catholic votes……’ PR has realised that there’s a difference btwn voting for the Union, and voting Unionist. He and his party have too much baggage for that prospect to be realistic in another hundred years, and then it will be epidemic [as del trotter would say].Next?
@madraj55 “He and his party have too much baggage for that prospect to be realistic in another hundred years”
Not so. Whilst I agree with DRs post that transfers currently move more naturally to the UUP from RC voters [than DUP] I think that Robinson is cleverly starting down a long term strategy of ‘out governancing’ other parties. There will be several streams to this I think.
1. DUP Ministers simply being seen as more competant than the Ministers of other parties [I'm not saying they necessarily are but that would be the aim]
2. As Mick pointed out – starting to focus on issues that reasonate with some RC voters – starting points would be social and economic. I have plenty of qualitative data that suggests RC parents like the DUP stance on education for example.
3. Positioning the party to be talking about ‘bread and butter’ issues more than anything else. Oh and doing it well.
Like it or don’t like it, its clever, it’s timely and it’s strategic.
VanHelsing. Maybe I should have stressed ‘his party’ rather than PR himself. He would have trouble bringing on board those who were called the ‘dirty dozen’ or snowmen as Jim Allister called them. I would agree that the more conservative catholic parents would have sympathy with Robinson on the education matter. In particular, desegregation, but as Liam Clarke pointed out, ‘It’s easy for the FM to suggest slaying sacred cows of the other side, not so quick at suggesting axe for those on his own side to reduce the divisive elemenmts in society. Doesn’t Robinson think Orange marches every summer is a long standing source of division?
He doesn’t
backstage… Well, Robinson has been restricting Campbell appearances on airwaves to judge from the election campaign, so maybe he’ll move on Nelson later.
This is much longer term than Campbell or Nelson. They are yesterday / today – the transition team, a legacy. Everyone will be looking for signals that they are increasingly marginal figures but today they are important as rotweilers for the masses.
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