Biscuits and gravy

Plenty has been written already about Owen Polley’s article in the Newsletter last week. I have no wish to reopen the debate over his support for the Irish rugby team, which is entirely his business. But I must pull him up for making one the most basic schoolboy errors that Unionists normally accuse others of. He has conflated Englishness with Britishness. Or rather, he has conflated anti-Englishness with anti-Britishness. Brexit has of course dredged up a lot of feeling south …

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The creeping reality is dawning of what extending Article 50 means

  To clear my head, I’ve done a round up of expert comment of where we are and what might be done, with 51 days to go to Brexit. Most of it implies or supports an extension of Article 50. But  the heavy squeeze on Mrs May  is on with a vengeance. The EU don’t look like granting it unless she drops  options they’ve already  rejected  And that excludes the options  in her Commons mandate.  So  this week, back empty …

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From Donald to Theresa, the bluntest of messages. Nothing doing unless you drop the Brexiteer options

  With 51 days to go to and Brexit clarity as elusive as ever, EU council president  Donald Tusk drops a not so subtle hint that most of Mrs May’s renegotiation options are no goers.   Afterward meeting Leo Varadkar, Tusk said those who promoted Brexit without a plan for leaving deserve “a special place in hell”. There are 50 days left until the UK’s exit from the European Union, following the decision and the will of the UK authorities. I know …

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Mrs May’s tilt towards nationalism in Belfast implies an appeal to Varadkar to be more flexible about the backstop

Northern Ireland does not have to rely on the Irish Government or the European Union to prevent a return to borders of the past. The UK Government will not let that happen. I will not let that happen. A fundamental belief in the Union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is part of my political heritage as a Conservative and Unionist – and that will never change. But the Unionism I believe in is one that respects absolutely the central …

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Almost everyone that I’ve ever trusted in politics has got something momentously wrong on Brexit

Brexit has been messy from the start. It was a messy campaign, and it could still have a messy end. Somewhere along the line Northern Ireland lost its democracy, and the sad laugh is that hardly anyone noticed. If there’s a lesson in it is that those who turn out, generally win. Despite the closeness of the general election year before last, Mrs May got the numbers she needed. No amount of petitions to the contrary changes that fact. She’s …

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Squaring the backstop circle

It is just under eight weeks until Brexit, and a deal still has not been done – or rather it has been done and then swiftly undone. Eight weeks is surely not enough to pass both the Withdrawal Agreement itself (scheduled for 14th February) and the subsequent, still top secret, six ton elephant that is the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill (see Paul Daly’s Twitter thread). If we are to avoid No Deal, extra time is now inevitable. Complaints that the …

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“Media that care more about spectacle than clarity only encourage the culture of bullshit.”

I have mentioned this before, but it’s a point worth repeating every now and again.  [Any particular reason this time? – Ed]  Oh, one or two…  From Kenan Malik in the Guardian Media that care more about spectacle than clarity only encourage the culture of bullshit. We live in an age obsessed by fake news and politicians’ lies. These are issues important to tackle. We should not ignore, however, the more insidious culture of bullshit. A liar, observed Frankfurt, knows …

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It’s Ireland’s call as well as England’s – and both can still win the match!

Let’s go straight to the bottom line. Ireland and EU26 say the backstop is necessary to prevent a hard border. The UK says insistence on the backstop in its present form is the best way to guarantee a hard border. These are  expressions of perfect deadlock. Nevertheless, after the defeat of the withdrawal deal by over 200 votes, Mrs May is returning to Brussels  to seek  an “alternative” to the backstop, either a time limit or unilateral exit mechanism to …

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Future Ireland / Breaking waves – Considering a New Ireland in 2019

As the drama in Westminster continues, it’s fair to say that in 2019 and beyond, Northern Ireland’s often petty and tedious politics will be interesting, as an international spotlight passes over old scars and immense change looms once again. At times, it feels like we are back on a familiar shore, where the waves grow bigger and the very sand is moving below our feet. Brexit, now, is like a meteor landing in the distant sea. Suddenly, many of the …

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“Such pressure as is on Ireland (and it will be significant) will come from the reality of the situation…”

Worth quoting at length from Pat Leahy in the Irish Times on the Irish Government’s role in the ongoing Brexit negotiations.  It’s a welcome, un-hysterical look at a key player in what will unfold.  [And all too rare here! – Ed]  Indeed.  From the Irish Times By and large, Leo Varadkar, Simon Coveney and the Government apparatus as a whole have handled the Brexit crisis well – just as the Opposition, in the main, has been pretty responsible. Contrast our …

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Don’t Mention the War: Legacies of the Troubles and Their Impact on Brexit

Is this the calm at the centre of the hurricane? The eerie, robotic, delusional calm of Brexiters as they respond with condescension to the exasperated questioning of journalists that of course there are digital and technological ways of monitoring the border, and of course the EU needs the UK more than vice versa, and it is bound to cave in “when they see the whites of our eyes”; the “calm bewilderment” of the EU as they survey the unfolding horror in …

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When the appalling lies and exaggerations of the Brexit period is over, mundane reality will beckon…

The odd thing about the Brexit stuff is how almost every side of the whole debate seems to have lost track of reality some way back up the road. What we have here is a transcontextual failure to communicate. The English are a funny lot. And I mean funny in both senses of the word. They are by instinct both class-ridden and deeply non-conformist. Almost every radical idea that’s hit Ireland in the last Millenium first passed through England before it hit …

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The personal strains imposed on identity by Brexit, as Theresa May struggles to build support for a renegotiation

With cabinet ministers admitting as much and an extension to Article 50 looking ever more likely, the Daily Mail carries this busy chart  purporting to describe Theresa May’s renegotiation agenda with  the EU. It reads like a Brexiteers’ dream. Her idea of doing a DUP-type deal with Labour leavers isn’t going down particularly  well with the comrades  who recognise  ” Brexit bribes” when they see them. Nick Timothy. Mrs May’s sacked joint chief of staff now a loose cannon  is …

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The Good Friday Agreement is in the frame for Theresa May’s challenge to the backstop

  In their renegotiation campaign the UK government are offering belated assurances that the proposals they’re about to make to replace or qualify their backstop involve no weakening of their commitment to the Good Friday Agreement. The attention-grabbing part of foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt’s BBC interview was his hint – subsequently denied by No 10 – that withdrawal might have to be delayed to after 29 March.  While he declined  to give details, the “ alternative arrangements include: a “trusted …

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For Northern Ireland’s sake a new generation SDLP must break free of its own reasonable fears

One of the problems with setting the kind of veil of secrecy around a big political deal like the one recently concluded by Colum Eastwood and Micheál Martin is that you leave a lot of people out of the loop.  Some of those are the Irish Labour-leaning folk we know about. But in fact, even Alban Maguinness who is readily identified on the socially conservative wing of the party has written a highly critical Op-Ed in the Belfast Telegraph. In Maguinness’ …

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Brexiteers are starting to fear that May will bend to reality

He was the unlikely hero of the hour. In the Commons last night with his voice shaking, Tory MP Oliver Letwin,   the backroom politician who was the chief policy coordinator of the Cameron coalition, made the most striking statement of the day. “I’ve actually got to the point where I am past caring what the deal is we have. I will vote for it to get a smooth exit.” On the face of it, a very irresponsible statement indeed from …

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Theresa May’s win gives her the scent of bigger victory, courtesy of divided Labour

Quite a coup, to turn a defeat by 230 votes into a victory by 15 votes in a fortnight – a victory courtesy of the DUP by the way. Rather sadly, the big losers of the day were the supporters of a second referendum.   But what sort of victory? It required turning 180 degrees from insisting hers was  the only deal, to agreeing to renegotiate  the “significant and legally binding change to the withdrawal agreement” she insisted was impossible only …

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Enter the “Malthouse compromise.”

In the present fevered atmosphere, what seems like a Eureka moment inside the Westminster bubble may not survive the cold light of day. Nevertheless, in Tory ranks excitement is building over the Malthouse compromise, a plan co-ordinated by a minister Kit Malthouse proposed by leading soft dealer Nicky Morgan. This would extend the transition period from the end of 2020  to December 2021 and allow the UK and EU to “prepare properly” for WTO terms or “obviate this outcome by …

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