UK – Page 21 – Slugger O'Toole

Last night’s indicative votes show how the impasse in the Commons could be broken

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on March 28, 2019, 12:55 pm

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The House of Commons voted last night on eight proposals that were intended to indicate what the House might be prepared to support to break the deadlock on the departure of the UK from the European Union. None of the proposals were approved by MPs. The narrowest defeat was for Kenneth Clarke’s proposals for the UK to leave the EU and remain a member of the customs union which lost by eight votes, whilst Marcus Fysh’s proposals for “Contingent preferential …

Brexit? It’s the Union, stupid

Brian Walker on March 28, 2019, 1:20 am

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“It was like binge-watching Borgen,” somebody said. But after all the drama , nothing is certain today – Theresa May’s “ back me then sack me” resignation, a third meaningful vote, even Brexit with a deal – except that the DUP will not vote for the withdrawal agreement. Nigel Dodds should have removed any lingering doubt: “The DUP do not abstain on the Union.” The deep state of main party disintegration was revealed in last night’s votes. In what …

And now the fate of the entire country could be placed in the hands of Sammy &Co

Brian Walker on March 27, 2019, 12:09 am

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I may have forecast the isolation of the DUP too quickly. First Boris – sidling backwards into it supporting Mrs May’s deal. And now Jacob Rees Mogg has had his Damascus moment and appears to have placed the fate of Theresa May’s deal in the DUP’s hands. But is there less to this than meets the eye? If anything the DUP’s position has hardened. It has dawned on them that the likely final settlement will take on the shape of …

The real battle of Brexit is about to begin

Brian Walker on March 26, 2019, 1:15 pm

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Oliver Letwin Rather than the hoped for negotiated peace, Brexit skirmishing is shaping up into a formal struggle between Theresa May’s crumbling minority government and the inchoate majority of soft Brexiteers in the House of Commons. Battle is finally joined between those who want to retain a close relationship with the EU and the committed minority of MPs who long for a clean break. It has polarised to a contest between No Deal and No Brexit in which the default …

The DUP and Theresa May, the EU and Leo Varadkar, are all at sixes and sevens over the backstop and a hard border

Brian Walker on March 25, 2019, 6:55 pm

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At this late stage of the game, the DUP are furious that Theresa May is still defending the backstop when it appears it may not be so vital after all. This new last minute dispute goes to the heart of why the DUP is still refusing to back her deal and is complicating the search for a Brexit agreement and with it Mrs May’s prospects for remaining in office. Just to add to the complications she went to say that …

Theresa May ponders pact with Brexiteers to quit in exchange for passing her deal

Brian Walker on March 25, 2019, 12:02 am

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So far from being immediately ousted, Theresa May will only permit her divided and supine cabinet to get their first sight of her draft plan to reassert control of Brexit one hour before the cabinet meeting at 10 o’clock this morning. The secrecy is designed to prevent the sort of leaks which have kept predicting her imminent demise and recording their own disarray. The plan reports say contains her own series of indicative votes to rival those of the …

My Deal or No Deal no longer. Flying blind to Brexit with a choice of deals. Theresa’s desperate plan for survival

Brian Walker on March 23, 2019, 12:09 am

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Call it a lottery, call it chaos. Call it parliamentary democracy adapting to an unprecedented situation. From Laura Kuennesberg Theresa May has told MPs that a third vote on her Brexit deal may not take place next week “if it appears there is not sufficient support“. In a letter to all MPs, that was one of four “clear choices” she outlined, along with revoking Article 50 which she says would “betray the result of the referendum”, leaving with no deal, …

What is democracy?

Andy Boal on March 22, 2019, 10:49 pm

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By definition, democracy is rule by the people. In practice the UK has representative democracy. We elect representatives to Parliament to essentially make the decisions for us, and if we don’t like the decisions they make, we can vote them out. And plenty of MPs – my own included – vote against the wishes of the majority of their constituents. So this is the thing. Does representative democracy mean that the representative is required to represent and speak for the …

The DUP smash up their agreement with Theresa May and are headed for isolation

Brian Walker on March 22, 2019, 6:29 pm

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The DUP’s Westminster leader Nigel Dodds has denounced Mrs May’s entire approach in a statement that all but guarantees her deal will not pass next week. The outcome of yesterday’s EU summit seems to have been the last straw. The DUP rejection also casts severe doubt on whether the confidence and supply arrangement that gave her a working majority can survive, at least under her leadership and without a hard Brexit prime minister succeeding her and able to deliver it. …

Theresa May is stuck with presenting an alternative Brexit to the EU

Brian Walker on March 22, 2019, 12:30 pm

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This is an interative post.. Friday is usually a day of anticlimax in public after the excitements of an EU summit This one is no exception. It leaves three days for the contending forces to prepare their battle plans for the next three weeks. But this week, the Friday truce is less than complete. The immediate note of anxiety came with the question of whether Mrs May would default to No Deal if MPs fail to approve her deal for …

Misha Glenny, famed expert on lethal clashes of identity in Europe, discovers his own roots – in Newry

Brian Walker on March 22, 2019, 10:22 am

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Misha Glenny I knew Michael “Misha” Glenny as a young BBC correspondent reporting the tragedies of the disintegration of Yugoslavia from the eighties and more recently as the author of the book and executive producer of the smash hit TV thriller series McMafia, about the spread of global crime into politics and the world of billionaire finance. Misha’s interest is in part hereditary. His father Michael senior was a student of Eastern Europe and a famed translator who legend has …

Courage mes enfants. Westminster will back away from the precipice and start learning the hard lessons of deadlock from next week

Brian Walker on March 21, 2019, 12:36 pm

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Three outcomes seem more likely than not after Theresa’s May’s appearance before the EU summit. One, that EU leaders will confirm a shorter than requested extension to the Article 50 deadline but will make no substantial change to the withdrawal package. Two, next Tuesday and Wednesday, MPs will find ways of defeating her deal while endorsing the extension to 22 May as required. No Deal by any name will not happen next week. Three, with no agreement reached, the EU …

The DUP are behaving as if they think May is a loser

Brian Walker on March 19, 2019, 6:46 pm

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What’s really holding the DUP back? Theresa May has already offered them the keys and thrown in the garage. Are they dreaming the impossible dream? Or more likely, waiting to see who and what will come out as winners next week – if anybody? They are at least hedging their bets on the future of May’s deal; or waiting to see if a new prime minister will match or improve her offer. Their one big fear is that a new …

How democracy ends, or one “bum note” is round the world before you can delete a tweet…

Mick Fealty on March 19, 2019, 5:57 pm

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Unifying two quite separate parts of Ireland means weaving new stories strong enough to create a narrative bridge that can take the weight of the diverse (and diversifying) pop of the whole island. Old (verging on racialist) discourses of demographic increase/decline run well with the cosplay in the internet of strangers, but we know from polling that no single identity can deliver a United Ireland.

The Citizenship Rights of the Good Friday Agreement – Real or Imagined?

Emma DeSouza on March 19, 2019, 10:00 am

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The Belfast Good Friday Agreement is widely championed as a success. Revered as a model of peace, it’s representative to many as a demonstration of the power of collaboration and compromise. And in a lot of ways, this is all true – “decommissioning”, the North South institutions, and power sharing have all changed the very fabric of Northern Ireland for the better. However, considering the lack of codification, the St. Andrews amendments and the current stalemate at Stormont, did we …

Has David Trimble has provided the DUP with the crucial argument for supporting the deal?

Brian Walker on March 18, 2019, 11:22 am

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Has their old enemy David Trimble provided the DUP with useful ammunition to support Mrs May’s deal? We’re told she will only make a third attempt at securing the Common’s agreement this week if she can be sure of winning a majority. And for that DUP support is crucial, not only in terms of numbers but for their influence with the ERG. “It was the Attorney General wot wrecked it” was the Brexiteer verdict after last Tuesday’s debacle, when their …

“we need to remove legacy policing from contemporary policing…”

Pete Baker on March 17, 2019, 3:00 pm

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A timely reminder, should one be needed, from Newton Emerson in the Irish Times this week, that when Sinn Féin talk about ‘agreement’ on the “need to remove legacy policing from contemporary policing” what they mean is “No prosecutions, please.” From Newton Emerson in the Irish Times It is all or nothing on dealing with the legacy of the Troubles. Either all sides must face the same prospect of prosecutions and convictions, or all sides must be given an amnesty …

Nigel Dodds speaks out. But is the DUP’s uncompromising stance any more than cover for living with the backstop?

Brian Walker on March 17, 2019, 2:15 am

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After the chaos of last week, leading media reflect sharply differing views on the prospects for a third meaningful vote on Tuesday. The Leave – supporting Telegraph newspapers have emerged as the unlikely cheerleaders for Mrs May’s battered deal. If the deal passes, No 10 officials say the necessary legislation will have cleared the Commons by April 25, paving the way for a new Brexit Day in the final week of May or first week of June, according to the …

Nigel Dodds rejects a lame attempt to Play the Orange Card to revive May’s deal

Brian Walker on March 15, 2019, 12:16 am

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With the No Deal option off the table a soft Brexit become more likely. In the ultimate paradox, this decision which flies in the face of Theresa May’s strategy actually strengthens her very weak hand just a little. By just two votes, she fended off a bid for parliament to take back control and was able to specify a short period of extension to 30th June, if the EU agrees. The ERG believe this could be their last throw to …

“The backstop is the either/or question that will face the government of this country…”

Mick Fealty on March 14, 2019, 5:16 pm

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Dan O’Brien argues that Ireland with its small open economy is likely to suffer much more than the UK in any No Deal Brexit and that the Irish government’s attempt to insure that a trade border absolutely never exists on the island is driving up the risk of such a worst case outcome.