A rare event. Northern Ireland is at the heart of a Commons challenge today to prevent a No Deal Brexit

Dominic Grieve QC MP Boris Johnson is expected to become  PM  just one day before the Commons rises for the summer recess, leaving only a few weeks  to challenge him  “not bluffing”  over quitting the EU at Hallowe’en, deal or no deal.  In perhaps the only available opportunity before the recess begins on 25 July, Northern Ireland is at the heart of moves by dissenting Conservatives to try to stop him today.  The opportunity created is  what would otherwise be …

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A hard Brexit PM must face reality- take up May’s WAB or prepare to rat on Northern Ireland, with DUP support

We will leave the EU on 31 October, deal or no deal.” This is Boris Johnson’s mission statement, fresh out of the leadership traps . Typical Boris, brave or giving an unnessary hostage to fortune, depending on your point of view.  Even at this crucial moment, Boris doesn’t do caution. The collapse of Theresa May’s premiership could bring about an even more volatile and dangerous phase, as the latest deadline of October 31 approaches. The euro election results will show …

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And now the fate of the entire country could be placed in the hands of Sammy &Co

I may have forecast the isolation of the DUP too quickly. First Boris – sidling backwards into it supporting Mrs May’s deal.  And now  Jacob Rees Mogg has had his Damascus moment and appears to have placed the fate of Theresa May’s deal in the DUP’s hands. But is there less to this than meets the eye? If anything the DUP’s position has hardened. It has dawned on them that the  likely  final settlement will take on the shape of …

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The DUP and Theresa May, the EU and Leo Varadkar, are all at sixes and sevens over the backstop and a hard border

At this late stage of the game, the DUP are furious that Theresa May is still defending the backstop when it appears it may not be so vital after all. This new last minute dispute goes to the heart of why the DUP is still refusing to back her deal and is complicating  the search for a Brexit agreement and with it Mrs May’s prospects for remaining in office.  Just to add to the complications she went to say that …

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The DUP smash up their agreement with Theresa May and are headed for isolation

The DUP’s Westminster leader Nigel Dodds has denounced Mrs May’s entire approach in a statement that all but guarantees her deal will not pass next week. The outcome of yesterday’s EU summit seems to have been the last straw. The DUP rejection  also casts severe doubt on whether  the confidence and supply arrangement that gave her a working majority can survive, at least under her leadership and without a hard Brexit prime minister succeeding her and able to deliver it. …

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Brexit alert. No easy ride for a soft Brexit after the collapse of the May strategy. No Deal is still lurking

The image says it all – the Daily Mail’s prediction 

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We’re back to the DUP as the touchstone for a Brexit deal

 Tony Connelly’s detailed report from the EU side  identifies what he regards as a shift of ground by the UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox  to try to satisfy the DUP which is skunnering the chance of a breakthrough. The EU has been shifting towards providing legally binding assurances, through a Joint Interpretative Statement that sets out the obligations to conclude a free trade deal and look at alternatives to the backstop in quick time. But in the Commons earlier this …

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Panic in government ranks as Corbyn opens talks with soft Brexit Tories about taking control away from May facing defeat next week

“Cox ‘s codpiece is empty” scoffed a leading Brexiteer tonight  in a sign of hardening opinion  against  the Attorney General’s  chances of success to secure a legal formula to satisfy the Tory right and the DUP. Ideas for a convoluted arbitration process now under discussion do not impress.  By this reckoning the best that can he hoped for next week is a meaningful vote in favour of extending Article 50. If that happens Brexit is up for grabs. Tonight in …

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An Amber warning of revolt is delivered as May’s Brexit strategy implodes. A new Battle of Britain is about to begin

This sort of thing just doesn’t happen in the British political system – a cabinet ultimatum  to the prime minister delivered in the Daily Mail If we don’t get a deal next week we MUST delay Brexit’: MPs Amber Rudd, Greg Clark and David Gauke appeal for Tory unity as party is engulfed by bitter in-fighting By David Gauke, Amber Rudd and Greg Clark for the Daily Mail Once the deal is passed, the benefits will be felt nationally. Optimism …

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In letting the Brexit crisis mount so high, you’d think we were in the early Middle Ages

It’s become just like the  filioque controversy that led to Great Schism of 1054  don’t you think?  You know, when the Roman church tried to foist a change of theology on the Orthodox Greeks of Constantinople.  In what became the Nicene Creed the Romans insisted on the Holy Spirit “proceeding from the Father and the Son.  But the Greeks weren’t having any of “the Son” business, (“filioque” being Latin for “and the son” for all you ignorant  Prods.)   And never …

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Northern Ireland could be caught in a tariff trap imposed by a British minister. How can such a muddle be avoided in future?

Whatever that latter day Rumpole attorney general Geoffrey Cox comes up with by way of alternative arrangements to try to seal the withdrawal deal at Sharm el Sheikh  at the weekend, Northern  Ireland’s own arrangements are  the least likely  to be replaced, as the Irish Times’ Denis Staunton  has warned.        and is bound to cast fresh doubt on the DUP’s support for a revised deal. (Attorney General)  Cox wants the EU to make explicit the temporary nature of …

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Can May hold it together or enough defectors pull it apart to strike a deal by 29 March?

British politics has reached the surreal stage as the No Deal deadline approaches. Although aware of the  mounting panic at the prospect of No Deal in the real world, they  seem too  absorbed by their own  battles  and intrigues to rise to the level of events and be relied on to meet their self imposed deadline of 29 March. Or else like most of us they secretly believe the other guy will do it  for them, the EU, a cross …

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Things fall apart… but if a new centre is forming, it’s more like a rough beast at the moment

As Mrs May faces another defeat … on the Conservative side.. Hardline Brexit supporters are threatening to inflict yet another Commons defeat on Theresa May because they fear the government is effectively ruling out leaving the EU with no deal. Members of the Tory European Research Group are unhappy with the wording of a No 10 motion because it endorses parliament’s vote against any Brexit without a withdrawal agreement. The motion for debate on Thursday simply affirms “the approach to leaving the EU” backed …

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Rumbled! Theresa May’s secret plan to extend Article 50 and stay close to the customs union long term.

Theresa May will not mind being forced to extend Article 50 in fifteen day’s time by a cross parliamentary vote, if Tory Brexiteers try to veto whatever she brings back from Brussels. Long suspected as inevitable  despite her constant denials, the evidence for this comes  – would you believe it ?  from that old faithful of hacks’ sources,” overheard in a bar” – in this case by ITN correspondent in Brussels , Angus Walker.        Last night, I’d been reporting …

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Theresa May is prepared to go right to the brink. The Remainers’ last chance is 27 February

Against most expectations, Theresa May has all but abandoned any effort to strike a cross party agreement with the Labour front bench. To concentrate minds, a cliff hanging finale as late as 26 March – three days before Leave day – is now looking likely. You don’t need to get into her head to come to this conclusion. It’s nakedly obvious from her statement and the exchanges in the Commons today. She’s challenging all sides who so decisively turned down …

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Ah,oh… UK government gets a little rough with the DUP

From the champions of  the precious Union and the busy custodians of devolved  government , the crudest bit of spin I’ve  seen in a long time, so crude it makes me giggle. Not that it isn’t plausible, mind you! I’m sure Sammy will take it on the chin   One senior minister said the prospect is “very real” and very much on the prime minister’s mind. A second cabinet minister warned the government risked “sleepwalking into a border poll”. And a …

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Mrs May’s tilt towards nationalism in Belfast implies an appeal to Varadkar to be more flexible about the backstop

Northern Ireland does not have to rely on the Irish Government or the European Union to prevent a return to borders of the past. The UK Government will not let that happen. I will not let that happen. A fundamental belief in the Union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is part of my political heritage as a Conservative and Unionist – and that will never change. But the Unionism I believe in is one that respects absolutely the central …

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The personal strains imposed on identity by Brexit, as Theresa May struggles to build support for a renegotiation

With cabinet ministers admitting as much and an extension to Article 50 looking ever more likely, the Daily Mail carries this busy chart  purporting to describe Theresa May’s renegotiation agenda with  the EU. It reads like a Brexiteers’ dream. Her idea of doing a DUP-type deal with Labour leavers isn’t going down particularly  well with the comrades  who recognise  ” Brexit bribes” when they see them. Nick Timothy. Mrs May’s sacked joint chief of staff now a loose cannon  is …

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The Good Friday Agreement is in the frame for Theresa May’s challenge to the backstop

  In their renegotiation campaign the UK government are offering belated assurances that the proposals they’re about to make to replace or qualify their backstop involve no weakening of their commitment to the Good Friday Agreement. The attention-grabbing part of foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt’s BBC interview was his hint – subsequently denied by No 10 – that withdrawal might have to be delayed to after 29 March.  While he declined  to give details, the “ alternative arrangements include: a “trusted …

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Brexiteers are starting to fear that May will bend to reality

He was the unlikely hero of the hour. In the Commons last night with his voice shaking, Tory MP Oliver Letwin,   the backroom politician who was the chief policy coordinator of the Cameron coalition, made the most striking statement of the day. “I’ve actually got to the point where I am past caring what the deal is we have. I will vote for it to get a smooth exit.” On the face of it, a very irresponsible statement indeed from …

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