The “real question” the election is ducking

The Irish election campaign is being fought on  depressingly traditional lines, some breast beating here, a few bribes there,  and tactics all the way. Exciting enough if you like that sort of thing, but new politics, hardly.  In the FT, Michael O’Sullivan,  author of Ireland and the Global Question defines what he says is the real question which the politicians won’t face. Part One of the analysis seems to be agreed but part Two seems to be discussed only in …

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Southern “passivity” is a mistaken analysis of the mood the Republic

I’m grateful to Greenflag below for drawing attention to Dan O’Brien’s historical sweep, Searching for the Source of Perpetual Passivity he’s dashed off for the  Irish Times. The piece should provide readers with many happy hours of historical rumination. But although a fan of Dan’s, I’m less sure what it does for the development of Irish democracy. Dan echoes Fintan O’Toole’s Enough is Enough which has much to commend it as inspiration. But the Irish are hell for getting distracted …

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Irish voters, go gently into political reform

For the first time since the 1880s, electoral reform is a buzz throughout these islands. So far, I’d say,  the case not made in either the UK or the Republic, where in both States it’s more  a matter of a disconnect between the problems and the solutions.  In the UK the perceived problem seems to be a too strong an executive elected by too few votes; in the Republic too strong an executive elected by too many for too long. …

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Election: New government expected but same old politics to continue.

Back on the 23rd June 2006 when Ireland was the richest country on the planet Berty Ahern, Taoiseach, had this to say in the Dail. “You would love to bring us back to the pathetic poverty when de Valera and Lemass built social houses, when no other houses were being built.” That was the “great tradition you and your merry warriors want to bring back too”. “You have a failed ideology and the most hopeless policy pursued by any nitwit. …

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A Dail reform campaign bigger than Fintan was aborted – why the secrecy?

It turns out that Democracy Now was the label for a full blown campaign to contest the next Dail election, if it had  been called even a month later, according to the Sunday Tribune lead. It was much more than a solo run by Fintan backed by a few friends , which was the impression I’d gained from his Irish Times article. The Tribune reports.. The objective was to win 20-25 seats and be in a position to hold the balance of power …

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Putting you money where your mouth is harder than talking about it

 I see that two ” celebrity” commentators with radical reform programmes have ducked out of standing for the Dail at this time of crisis and upheaval. This will be a gift to the cynics who shout “throw the bastards out” at TDs while sneering at anyone outside who believes that something can be done. Economist and stage performer David McWilliams offers his fans a measely two liner. Poor show David.  By contrast, Fintan O’Toole gives a full and frank explanation, …

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The next Coalition- the Irish people have a right to know in advance what it stands for

Away from the ball-by ball commentary on the crisis, what sort of coalition would Fine Gael and Labour make? A pre-election pact looks improbable, despite the depth of the political and financial crisis. At first blush, competition between them for the leading role could leave voters guessing until the last minute. Prospects for firm government might appear slim. Labour will bid to overhaul Fine Gael at the polls. For the first time Labour enjoys the lead of the party polls …

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Take it steady for political reform – why not adapt from the Brits?

Following up my comments on the supposed “ gridlock ” on political reform in the Republic, three elements from  recent UK political and constitutional reforms should be considered before throwing the whole system up in the air and creating a potentially dangerous state of flux. This is quite dry stuff and not as much fun as “panic don’t panic, ” melodramatic despair and the usual battles over history, but they could be a lot more effective. No doubt this is …

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Now or never to reveal the truth about Sinn Fein’s past

Mick rightly highlights the get out of jail success of Gerry Adams and Peter Robinson this year but the dark side of Sinn Fein  still lurks.  Musing on the WilkiLeaks cables on the Northern Bank robbery and the size of the IRA’s investment portfolio, that scourge of Sinn Fein Ed Moloney wonders what’s happened to it, suitably adjusted for inflation. Just how much money the IRA has, or had, in that investment portfolio is not disclosed in the WikiLeaks cable, …

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Don’t beat yourselves up over loss of sovereignty. There are compensations

  Asked if they believed that Ireland had surrendered its sovereignty in accepting the bailout, 56 per cent said that it had, while 33 per cent said it had not and 11 per cent had no opinion.  Latest Irish Times poll As Mick and others have discussed , it’s interesting how fashions of sovereignty change. I remember Dev’s grandson Eamonn O Cuiv telling me how Ireland finally won it on joining the Common Market in 1973 (though even if they …

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MI5 make conditional offer on Finucane – WikiLeaks

Unless Iran is your patch, this is probably the most interesting Wikileaks outing to date. The Security Service’s offer is revealed in a cable from June 2005, written by the US ambassador to Dublin, James C Kenny, which reported on a meeting between the head of MI5 and Mitchell Reiss, the US special envoy to Northern Ireland. In an account of the meeting between Reiss and Ahern, the ambassador wrote: “Reiss briefed him on his talks in London, including with …

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Not as unfair a Budget as some think – but fairness isn’t all

Now that the first blast of dust has settled in the debate on the Irish budget, ERSI analysts have asked – Is It Fair? The short answer is, who cares about fairness when ( nearly) everyone is feeling pain? The more complex one is that  it all depends on from where you’re looking at it.  Relative fairness may have been achieved better than a Sinn Fein platform rant would have you believe. But absolute fairness becomes harder to claim lower down the …

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SDLP MI5 and taking the fight to Sinn Fein…

The SDLP are still alive – and they give the distinct impression that they see this as something of an achievement. As continuing (relative) peace brings with it political consensus to both sides of the constitutional fence, the SDLP like the UUP are armed with new and rather uninspiring leaders as they continue to struggle to find a gap in the green and orange political markets. For the UUP, with Tom (Elliott) the Orangeman in charge and with the Tory …

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Helping to govern Ireland better

Hard pressed policy makers in Dublin who are under fire for the state of governance exposed by the financial crisis ought to take a look at this multinational project  to create a new model of governance hosted here by the Institute of Government in London. This is no post-imperial exercise but a rigorous set of comparative analyses which touch many of the points where government affects peoples lives. Examples.. Government better at handling complex issues closer to citizens benefiting from …

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Fintan’s Enough is Enough petition is a better start for reform

Although no fan of Fintan O’Toole’s spasm of direct action, his headline political reforms are admirable. Once he’s won some support, he surely needs to transform the petition into a collective enterprise. Political reform is no solo run or quick fix. He will also realise he needs support from among those he has  been slagging off or he’ll not get very far.   For Irish reform, old ghosts should not inhibit a comparative analysis with the British experience. Ireland like Britain …

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Tell us honestly, Fine Gael and Labour. Are you in favour of default?

Is there an alternative strategy after all? Might the euro’s continuing adversity become Ireland’s opportunity? The first thing to notice is that the Irish government rejected the Financial Times’ stern advice and succumbed to overwhelming pressure. Ireland is readying itself to sign the dotted line of a rescue package foisted on it by Europe. It should not accept before securing terms that avert a bail-out of European lenders paid for by Irish taxpayers thrown into debt bondage. Although we won’t …

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The Irish people should not be teased with false choices

“The best under the circumstances”, says Cowen or “almost unaffordable” according to Noonan? The battle lines for the general election are drawn up immediately. But the contest won’t be about real alternatives. It’ll be about how the Irish people respond to a settlement they have to work through whoever is in power, give or take a tweak or two. This poses a big challenge for Michael Noonan, Joan Bruton and the rest of the government in waiting.  They have to change …

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Will Donegal create the bounce for Ireland’s Green Tea Party?

Mark  is entitled to be pleased. But Donegal is only the sparring match. The stakes have now raised to a critical high for the main bout.  If Sinn Fein can’t win big in the general election, they never will.  The Donegal sideshow was in some respects, a gift.  A blatant gerrymander in delaying the by election by 17 months, the appeal of the “burn the bondholders ”  populist shout, a personable well-gelled young candidate with a good community record, I understand all …

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Counting the cost of bailout

As flagged up by Mack yesterday, the Irish Times reports that the EU/ECB/IMF team is examining how to force bondholders to share the burden with Irish taxpayers of the 15 billion euro deficit reduction plan. At present attention centres on two similar schemes. In the first, bank debt would be converted into equity shares. In the second, bond investors would be given the choice of injecting fresh capital into banks or face a cut in their investment. This seems an …

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With cautious pessimism the best verdict available, political stability is essential

Economists and the markets are rating  Irish political stability morer highly than I would have thought.  The prominence of their concern undermines the despairing view that whoever forms the next government doesn’t much matter. It’s the EU,IMF, the markets whoever…. that really run the show. I pay attention when Stephen Collins political editor of the Irish Times states confidently that the Budget will pass despite TDs ” huffing and puffing”. Stephen is among the government’s most scorching critics but  he believes they …

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