The mystery of the ‘shy nationalists’ – online and face-to-face polling on Irish unity continues to give different results

The results of an opinion poll organized by Liverpool University and Britain’s Economic and Social Research have been published this week. The poll, carried out by Social Market Research, showed 29% of voters would vote for a united Ireland, with 52% against and 19% indicating that they don’t know or wouldn’t vote. Polling on Irish unity over the last couple of years has painted a confusing picture. A poll commissioned by Lord Ashcroft last year was the first to show …

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A “likely” story – the Secretary of State needs to explain under what circumstances he would hold a border poll

Following the release of Lord Ashcroft’s poll earlier today, showing that a narrow majority of Northern Ireland voters are in favour of Irish unification once those not expressing an opinion are excluded, it is worth exploring the crucial role that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland has on the question of whether a border poll is held. Schedule 1, paragraph 2 of the Good Friday Agreement states that “the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 …

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US public attitudes towards Jewish immigrants fleeing Hitler’s Germany in 1938…

One of the earliest examples of a major opinion poll, I’m just putting this here for historical context… It’s a long way from there to the more generous wartime nostrums of Casablanca. (Direct democracy advocates, take note?) Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

Another of Brexit’s big losers: the opinion polls

In the maelstrom of comment following Leave’s victory in the referendum there have been many groups blamed, criticised etc. Amongst the greatest of the losers, however, are once again the pollsters. The pollsters have a singularly poor record in forecasting British national elections when they are remotely close. The original failure of recent times was John Major’s victory in 1992. Then the pollsters all claimed Kinnock would win. During the Blair years the pollsters did better but that was as …

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“Would you favour a united Ireland?”

With Sinn Féin trying, again, to drum up interest in the report they commissioned of an ‘independent’ modelling of the benefits of an economically right-wing united Ireland, TheJournal.ie reports on the responses of the RTÉ Claire Byrne Live / Amarách Research Panel to the question, “Would you favour a united Ireland?”. From TheJournal.ie report The question was posed “Would you favour a united Ireland?” The question was asked in the run-up to this weekend’s Easter Rising celebrations. In total, 54% said Yes, 24% said No and …

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Success for a #IndyRef Yes needs a large push for conversions (or a low turnout)…

I must admit that I struggle to see the dynamic middle ground in the debate over Scotland’s independence. There’s little doubt which campaign is the more dynamic. Just go to Pinterest and put in Scottish Referendum as a search term and you are dedazzled with a sea of Blue Saltired Yes graphics (try searching getty images too?), some of it highly creative. #136945596 / gettyimages.com Nicola Sturgeon has been preaching to large audience from Dumfries and Galloway up to Orkney …

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Labour’s difficulty pulling ahead

The latest opinion polls show Labour’s small lead seems fairly consistent but it remains too small for them to have any confidence in achieving a majority. Ironically despite their currently pathetic level of support the most likely scenario remains the Liberal Democrats holding the balance of power. At one level this failure of the Labour Party to be further ahead is surprising. David Cameron has never captured the public imagination and both he and his government continue to be seen …

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Even Protestants don’t support parades and protests: #LucidTalk

More figures from LucidTalk in the Belfast Telegraph, this time on Parades. Respondents were asked which statements they agreed most closely with (results given as percentages): If you exclude don’t knows, you get the following results (results given as percentages): And, if pie-charts are your thing, here’s charts for the first three groups excluding don’t knows: … and Protestants (excluding don’t knows)…   … and Catholics (excluding don’t knows)… As to the poll itself, the stats provided state that: Our LucidTalk …

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