IT Poll suggests pre-Christmas Brexit euphoria around Taoiseach is starting to wear off

I’m generally not minded to bother readers with polls unless they tell us something new or challenging. Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI contains some details I think are well worth noting. Here are the headline figures… Not a lot of change in the general pattern (note that independents still sit on shrinking ground), though as Damian Loscher notes Sinn Féin is up three points to 22%, its highest rating in this poll since early 2016. He also notes that: Sinn Féin … Read more

Poll: Overwhelming support for amending/abolishing Ireland’s strict abortion laws

The changes in the Republic from just a generation ago are profound. Today the Irish Times poll produces some remarkable figures showing support for abolition of the controversial Eight Amendment to the Irish Constitution, added in 1983 to prevent the casual legalisation of abortion in any form. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the … Read more

After a turbulent start to ‘new politics’, Republic’s polling returns to February’s level

We don’t touch on every poll that comes out (and I’m not sure we even blogged Fianna Fail on 33%). [Hold on, Declan says you did! – Ed]. But this one is interesting if only in that it confirms that the loose political peloton formation that was such a feature of polls during the last government hasn’t gone away: Fine Gael, 26 per cent (up two points); Fianna Fáil, 26 per cent (down seven points); Labour, 5 per cent (no change); … Read more

New poll suggests old FFers are returning to actual Fianna Fail…

One of the worse refractions of political light, as it comes across the border from the south to the north, is the illusion that somehow the southern electorate share the same obsessions and political outlook as those of us in Northern Ireland. For many northerners, southern politics did not really exist before the Sinn Fein expeditionary force began to should some fruit for it’s long and patient endeavour to seize power on both sides of the border. Accordingly, we tend … Read more

Ipsos/MRBI: Within the peloton Sinn Féin jostles strongly ahead of Fianna Fáil…

So here we are. After a relatively quiet summer poll-wise, Sinn Fein will enjoy a significant bounce on the eve of a byelection in Dublin West where they are joint favourites to pick up a seat… Even a look at the core figures confirms that they seem to be doing well at the expense of Fianna Fáil: The core vote for the parties – before undecideds are excluded – compared with the last poll was: Fine Gael, 19 per cent (up one … Read more

Ipsos- MRBI Poll: Fine Gael and Fianna Fail leveling out…

Just a quick one, the Irish Times poll figures have some interesting if minor changes in the party fortunes in the south… …when undecided voters are excluded – compared with the last Irish Times poll was: Fine Gael, 25 per cent (down five points); Labour, 8 per cent (down one point); Fianna Fáil, 25 per cent (up three points); Sinn Féin, 21 per cent (no change); and Independents/Others, 21 per cent (up three points). The core vote for the parties compared with the … Read more

Latest polling: Fine Gael pocket most of the benefit of the Troika farewell?

So, the latest poll in the south. Just four things worth considering: 33% of those asked do not have a clear preference. This is an indication of the wider state of mind of the electorate. It probably poses the greatest challenge to Fianna Fail since it represents a large tranche of voters who appear to have turned their back on politics in Ireland since the party’s defenestration in February 2011. Independents have dropped five percentage points. This is an downturn … Read more

Ipsos /MRBI: Irish Labour’s ‘poll of despond’…

Here’s the latest figures from the Irish Times Ipsos /MRBI poll… Fine Gael: 26% Sinn Féin: 23% Fianna Fáil: 22% Labour: 6% Greens: 2% Others/Ind: 21% Right about now is when Labour party activists should be hitting the panic like hell button. As Adrian Kavanagh notes, the party has not seen ratings like this in twenty five years, though it has to be said, the change is right on the margin of error. Labour’s absences, as noticed by Miriam Lord, … Read more

Ipsos/MRBI: FF maintain a short lead whilst SF rejoin Ireland’s political peloton…

So, the latest Ipsos/MRBI poll is out in the Irish Times. At this mid point in the term of the thirty first Dail, there’s not a lot of change to highlight. Fianna Fail at just two points ahead of Fine Gael is within the margin of error, but means steady as she goes. The party will want to widen that gap before next year’s local elections, not least because Sinn Fein’s bump back up to 21% suggest they are also … Read more

Fine Gael drop back towards Ireland’s large political peloton

Let’s get one thing straight, polls do not increase or decrease the size of a political party. They are nere snapshots of opinion, not predictors of the future. So whilst Sinn Fein was never the second largest party in the state, neither is Fianna Fail currently the largest. Of course both, if trends continue, are set to make gains in the next big elections, which are the Locals and Europeans. But all we can say at the moment is that the … Read more

Fianna Fail growth in the polls continues…

Interesting poll figures tonight from the Irish Times [ah we love da horses! – Ed, foolishly attempting an ill-fitting northsider accent]. But let’s dispose of the distractions first. Labour in a flat spin? Nah, not really. The sharp backdraft to the Gilmore Gale came with last December’s budget when it became clear that the government could not serve two masters at once. What we see here is not that different to what Labour has registered all year. If anything, the … Read more

Sinn Fein move up 6 points in latest Irish Times poll…

Well, two swallows don’t make a summer… but I make a six point rise in the Iposos MRBI poll for Sinn Fein a very nice little earner and well worth a headline: Fine Gael, 33 per cent (down three points); Labour, 13 per cent (down six points); Fianna Fáil, 14 per cent (down one point); Sinn Féin, 21 per cent (up six points); Green Party, 2 per cent (up one point); and Independents/ Others, 17 per cent (up three points). … Read more

Sinn Fein pass Fianna Fail in Irish Times poll…

Here’s the real reason Martin is running in the race for the Aras. Given Labour, FF and SF are so bunched, the lead is probably more psychological than real, but… When people were asked who they would vote for if a general election were to be held tomorrow, the figures for party support – when undecided voters are excluded – compared with the last Irish Times poll on July 20th were: Fine Gael, 35 per cent (down three points); Labour, … Read more

Irish Times Poll: It’s all about Higgins, Gallagher and McGuinness (and poor Gay Mitchell)…

Well that’s one of my Betfair punts in the waste basket, and the other one could yet cost me some serious cash. However, let’s remember for now that this is still only a gameshow! The Red C poll results are out later, but for now, this is the #Aras11 world according to Ipsos/MRB: Michael D Higgins 23 per cent (up five points); Seán Gallagher 20 per cent (up seven points); Martin McGuinness 19 per cent (not in last poll); Mary … Read more

Fine Gael maintains its lead, but government dissatisfaction rises…

Today’s polls on in the Irish Times… Fine Gael, 38 per cent (up two points); Labour, 18 per cent (down one point); Fianna Fáil, 18 per cent (up two points); Sinn Féin, 10 per cent (no change); Green Party, 2 per cent (no change); and Independents/Others, 14 per cent (down one point). No change, even on February’s election results, is the honest answer (probably best to ignore personal ratings, like the Lotto, they can go down as well as up … Read more

Polling report: Fine Gael maintains front runner position

Polls are the modern equivalent of Pop Idol. It seems to take all the hard work out of working out how the people are going to vote (spend their money on music). But anyone trusting too closely the national ratings is in danger of misconstruing that Irish elections are really 43 bye elections (see Adrian Kavanagh’s excellent work on trying to break it down to that level). So today’s Irish Times poll confirms pretty much what we already knew. Fine … Read more

Fianna Fail: The meltdown is fact!

“….A lot of Fianna Fail TD are going to have a lot more time to spend with their families in Christmas 2011″ – Noel Whelan, Pat Kenny show RTE morning radio show discussing the poll result ! In the past weeks while all the poll figures pointed to serious difficulties for Fianna Fail, those long in the tooth and grey in the head on these matters took cognizance of the polls but wanted to see more before coming to any … Read more

Enda caught in the middle between Eamon and Brian…

Despite the poor showing in the polls, Fianna Fail have one secret, get-out-of-jail-free card they can play against both Labour (soaring ahead at 33% in the latest Ipso-MRBI poll) and Fine Gael (now level pegging at 24% with Fianna Fail). They’ve been in government for so long, they have acquired the knack of being plausible. Very much an underestimated quality in Irish politics. A normally talented performer in Dail, even Joan Burton was tempted to jump the shark with her … Read more

Quote of the day…

Is from an excellent post from reader Neville Bagnall on the Irish Times poll thread: Yes the Labour support is soft, and won’t completely translate into seats; but the tectonic plates of Irish politics are moving, and nobody can be certain what the landscape will look like afterwards. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across … Read more

Labour tops Irish Times poll with 32%…

There is already a raging debate over at Politics.ie over the latest Irish Times IPSOS/MRBI Poll: …if there were a general election tomorrow, the adjusted figures for party support, compared with the previous Irish Times poll on January 20th last were: Fianna Fáil, 17 per cent (down five points); Fine Gael, 28 per cent (down four points); Labour, 32 per cent (up eight points); Sinn Féin, 9 per cent (up one point); Green Party, 3 per cent (no change); and … Read more