“the gulf between the views held by supporters of the three main political parties and Sinn Féin”

Inside the Irish Times Stephen Collins drills down into the data from the survey Brian noted to pick up on an interesting point.  From the Irish Times article When asked if it was better to be part of the European Union the same pattern emerged. Among Fianna Fáil voters 87 per cent said it was better to be in the EU with just 9 per cent saying it was not. Fine Gael and Labour voters gave identical responses, with 77 …

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‘Independence’ is reason Cowen cannot pull off the Brown ‘trick’…

If it’s a given that the Irish media aren’t very fond of Fianna Fail, then Harry McGee’s summation of their prospects is as fair a one as I’ve seen in while. Early on he wonders out loud whether Brian Cowen can do a Brown and bring his party back from the brink so many believe he has already dropped off. The analogy is an interesting one, and no doubt will have some appeal to those inside government. And despite the …

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Move along, nothing to see here.

This morning, Mick blogged on the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll (while blagging all the most  interesting links into the bargain). While there may be some methodological differences, the broader thrust is similar to that of the recent Red C poll where Lab + SF + GP = FF + FG – 2% although this has now drifted out to Lab + SF + GP = FF + FG – 5%, suggesting that this is not simply movement from Labour to Sinn Féin. Last weekend, there …

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Wikileaks: “Another idea sporadically under consideration…”

It’s an idea that has, probably, been overtaken by events… for now…  But there is one more section from the US Embassy cables released by Wikileaks worth highlighting.  A short note on the possibility of Fianna Fáil contesting elections in Northern Ireland from a cable dated 04 February 2005 8. (C) Another idea sporadically under consideration is that Fianna Fail could start competing in elections in Northern Ireland. The argument is that Fianna Fail’s best way of confronting Sinn Fein in …

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As Lenihan lashes the ship’s wheel, the new government must learn to govern…

Tomorrow is budget day in Dublin. The two independent TDs the government needs to force it through the Dail, Jackie Healy Rae and Michael Lowry are to decide today whether they support the government. Currently the government appears to be lavishing them with the kind of attention Government backbenchers can only dream of… Fianna Fail TD Ned O’Keeffe said it makes party backbenchers “look like doormats”.”I can’t understand how two people are going to decide the future of the country …

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“A spate of retirements would actually suit Fianna Fáil at the moment.”

In the Irish Times Noel Whelan provides a useful corrective to any rumours of a stampede of retiring Fianna Fáil TDs ahead of next year’s anticipated Irish general election.  TOO MUCH has been made of the retirements already announced in the 30th Dáil. When set in context, the pattern of retirements for the forthcoming election is unlikely to differ from previous elections. Between 15 and 25 sitting TDs always retire at each election. If it seems like there has been …

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Is Fianna Fail’s difficulty everyone else’s opportunity?

As Aristotle once remarked, ‘Nature abhors a vacuum’. And the ‘empty space’ at the top of the Irish political game at the moment is the one Taoiseach Brian Cowen should have been occupying for the last two years. A poll in today’s Irish Sun marks a new low point in Cowen’s leadership of his country, and his party who dropped four points on a similar poll conducted just two weeks ago. Fianna Fail now rests at just 13%. It is …

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Lab + SF + GP = FF + FG – 2%

There had been rumours that tomorrows Red C opinion poll for the Sun would produce a surprise (partly because it is a party poll rather than leader poll). It will be tomorrow before we get the details (date of polling, methodology etc). But Matt Cooper (TodayFM) leaked the figures earlier on his radio show – FG 32%, Lab 24%, SF 16%, FF 13%, Greens 3%, others 11%. Many will spin that, post-Donegal SW, SF are merely getting a positive bounce, while ignoring the potential …

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“what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Termonfeckin to be born?”

Well, there’s one for the record. Dermot Ahern quits ahead of the election (and it could be 28th December if Lowry and Healy stick to their rebellious murmurerings of last week). Who’d have thunk it? Well Brian Feeney for a start (H/T Kate!). He may not have suggested Ahern would so spectacularly have quit the field, but he hinted darkly at his imminent defeat few others in the southern space thought likely. Already the Twitterverse is waxing lyrical on the …

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Donegal South West: Emergence of Sinn Fein Nua?

Now whilst Donegal is not Ireland, for Sinn Fein this byelection victory has the potential to become a game-changing moment. They now have one of those two predicted Donegal seats.  In fact, Aidan Kavanagh’s Red C extrapolations underestimated Sinn Fein’s appeal to the Donegal South West electorate and exaggerated the strength of the mainstream parties. Pearse Doherty grabbed 40% of all first preferences, and 60% of all first and second preferences, something that’s previously been unheard of in the politics of the …

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FF: Just too cute this time?

Today FF and the Greens looked interested in leaving behind bobby traps for any incoming government as they face a humiliating removal from office. Both have declared their actions as in the national interest. But how much of recent events have been about FF, in particular trying to minimise their forthcoming time in the electoral wilderness and how much is really about the national interest? Following the Doherty court challenge and his likely victory in DSW, with further by-elections in …

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“In hindsight…”

In the Irish Times Stephen Collins signs off with a line on the electoral prospects of Fianna Fáil that’s worth considering as the ECB and the IMF have those detailed discussions in Dublin. The voters who rewarded it for being so irresponsible in the good times are likely to be merciless now that everything has gone so badly wrong. Read the whole thing. Pete Baker

Republic of Ireland (1949-2010)

Nice quote from the Irish Times to begin the morning: “When you borrow, you lose a little bit of your sovereignty, no matter who you borrow from.” So said Brian Lenihan, last Finance minister of the sovereign Republic (sic) of Ireland. From a government that had promoted reckless borrowing, a property boom and general fiscal anarchy, you can either take it as a belated admission of guilt or a unique moment of clarity. I would like to believe there has been a note of …

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High Court judgement creaks government one step closer to the end…

Interesting judgement in Pearse Doherty’s case in the Dublin High Court this morning. Although he stops one step short of confronting the legislature (that’s  the Supreme Court’s job) Mr Justice Kearns, High Court President, said: “I am satisfied that the delay in this case is so inordinate as to amount to a breach of the applicant’s constitutional rights to such a degree as to warrant the court granting some form of relief. Far from the court ’tearing asunder’ the provisions …

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Power now lies in hands of Lowry and Healy-Rae…

There is a part you that has to admire the cool with with Biffo and the boys of Fianna Fail take their knocks. Having your whole fiscal policy dictated by a virtual committee of the ECB and the IMF and fronting the toughest budget in many generations takes some doing. But as Miriam Lord notes in today’s Irish Times, the loss of Jim McDaid was already priced in by his erstwhile party colleagues. With the Greens keeping their nerve and …

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Is a general election imminent in the south?

The Sunday Business Post goes into some detail on the degree to which the Labour party seems to be getting ready for what looks like an historically high tide in the polls in the Republic. Even to the extent of running a conference on ‘winning the west’ where they have traditionally weak. More interesting is their Back Room column which speculates that in fact, the realists within Fianna Fail may already be calcutating that this could be the best moment …

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Cowen: “I believe the pursuit of the national interest and the common good must have priority”

With Sinn Féin proposing some more taxes and borrowing here, it’s worth looking at what’s been happening there. On Saturday 9th October RTÉ noted Taoiseach Brian Cowen’s intial lukewarm response to Green Party leader John Gormley’s call for an all-party consensus on a four-year budget plan. Taoiseach Brian Cowen has said he would welcome a political consensus on the budgetary measures needed to get the economic situation under control. However, he said it was up to the Opposition parties to put …

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Enda caught in the middle between Eamon and Brian…

Despite the poor showing in the polls, Fianna Fail have one secret, get-out-of-jail-free card they can play against both Labour (soaring ahead at 33% in the latest Ipso-MRBI poll) and Fine Gael (now level pegging at 24% with Fianna Fail). They’ve been in government for so long, they have acquired the knack of being plausible. Very much an underestimated quality in Irish politics. A normally talented performer in Dail, even Joan Burton was tempted to jump the shark with her …

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How the economy is Coveney’s fault, according to Fianna Fail…

From John McGuirk, no fan of Fianna Fail… A little harsh, but fairly middles it with a sweeping bat… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

Good heavens! You’re the science minister…

At least Edwin Poots was only the culture minister…  The Fianna Fáil junior minister “with special responsibility for science”, Conor Lenihan, may believe the party has been “very damaged”, but he’s also got reason to thank his lucky stars for the recent controversy about Brian Cowen’s under par interview. At the start of the week the Irish government’s Minister for Science had been due to officially launch an anti-evolution book, “The Origin of Specious Nonsense” [Link? – Ed] You can google it yourself. …

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