I may have forecast the isolation of the DUP too quickly. First Boris – sidling backwards into it supporting Mrs May’s deal. And now Jacob Rees Mogg has had his Damascus moment and appears to have placed the fate of Theresa May’s deal in the DUP’s hands. But is there less to this than meets the eye? If anything the DUP’s position has hardened. It has dawned on them that the likely final settlement will take on the shape of …
At this late stage of the game, the DUP are furious that Theresa May is still defending the backstop when it appears it may not be so vital after all. This new last minute dispute goes to the heart of why the DUP is still refusing to back her deal and is complicating the search for a Brexit agreement and with it Mrs May’s prospects for remaining in office. Just to add to the complications she went to say that …
So far from being immediately ousted, Theresa May will only permit her divided and supine cabinet to get their first sight of her draft plan to reassert control of Brexit one hour before the cabinet meeting at 10 o’clock this morning. The secrecy is designed to prevent the sort of leaks which have kept predicting her imminent demise and recording their own disarray. The plan reports say contains her own series of indicative votes to rival those of the …
Call it a lottery, call it chaos. Call it parliamentary democracy adapting to an unprecedented situation. From Laura Kuennesberg Theresa May has told MPs that a third vote on her Brexit deal may not take place next week “if it appears there is not sufficient support“. In a letter to all MPs, that was one of four “clear choices” she outlined, along with revoking Article 50 which she says would “betray the result of the referendum”, leaving with no deal, …
By definition, democracy is rule by the people. In practice the UK has representative democracy. We elect representatives to Parliament to essentially make the decisions for us, and if we don’t like the decisions they make, we can vote them out. And plenty of MPs – my own included – vote against the wishes of the majority of their constituents. So this is the thing. Does representative democracy mean that the representative is required to represent and speak for the …
This is an interative post.. Friday is usually a day of anticlimax in public after the excitements of an EU summit This one is no exception. It leaves three days for the contending forces to prepare their battle plans for the next three weeks. But this week, the Friday truce is less than complete. The immediate note of anxiety came with the question of whether Mrs May would default to No Deal if MPs fail to approve her deal for …
Three outcomes seem more likely than not after Theresa’s May’s appearance before the EU summit. One, that EU leaders will confirm a shorter than requested extension to the Article 50 deadline but will make no substantial change to the withdrawal package. Two, next Tuesday and Wednesday, MPs will find ways of defeating her deal while endorsing the extension to 22 May as required. No Deal by any name will not happen next week. Three, with no agreement reached, the EU …
What’s really holding the DUP back? Theresa May has already offered them the keys and thrown in the garage. Are they dreaming the impossible dream? Or more likely, waiting to see who and what will come out as winners next week – if anybody? They are at least hedging their bets on the future of May’s deal; or waiting to see if a new prime minister will match or improve her offer. Their one big fear is that a new …
Unifying two quite separate parts of Ireland means weaving new stories strong enough to create a narrative bridge that can take the weight of the diverse (and diversifying) pop of the whole island. Old (verging on racialist) discourses of demographic increase/decline run well with the cosplay in the internet of strangers, but we know from polling that no single identity can deliver a United Ireland.
The Belfast Good Friday Agreement is widely championed as a success. Revered as a model of peace, it’s representative to many as a demonstration of the power of collaboration and compromise. And in a lot of ways, this is all true – “decommissioning”, the North South institutions, and power sharing have all changed the very fabric of Northern Ireland for the better. However, considering the lack of codification, the St. Andrews amendments and the current stalemate at Stormont, did we …
Has their old enemy David Trimble provided the DUP with useful ammunition to support Mrs May’s deal? We’re told she will only make a third attempt at securing the Common’s agreement this week if she can be sure of winning a majority. And for that DUP support is crucial, not only in terms of numbers but for their influence with the ERG. “It was the Attorney General wot wrecked it” was the Brexiteer verdict after last Tuesday’s debacle, when their …
After the chaos of last week, leading media reflect sharply differing views on the prospects for a third meaningful vote on Tuesday. The Leave – supporting Telegraph newspapers have emerged as the unlikely cheerleaders for Mrs May’s battered deal. If the deal passes, No 10 officials say the necessary legislation will have cleared the Commons by April 25, paving the way for a new Brexit Day in the final week of May or first week of June, according to the …
With the No Deal option off the table a soft Brexit become more likely. In the ultimate paradox, this decision which flies in the face of Theresa May’s strategy actually strengthens her very weak hand just a little. By just two votes, she fended off a bid for parliament to take back control and was able to specify a short period of extension to 30th June, if the EU agrees. The ERG believe this could be their last throw to …
Dan O’Brien argues that Ireland with its small open economy is likely to suffer much more than the UK in any No Deal Brexit and that the Irish government’s attempt to insure that a trade border absolutely never exists on the island is driving up the risk of such a worst case outcome.
What a topsy turvy world is conjured up by the spectre of No Deal. Despite yesterday’s vote to abandon it and with the extension of Article 50 to come, the nail hasn’t been yet driven through its heart. What happens when the usual parameters of behaviour are abandoned, the perverse effect, is every much in evidence. In an openly divided cabinet, a chancellor who defies his prime minister by warning against No Deal and then votes for it. A …
Oh, what a mess. Meet Liz Truss, who is Chief Secretary at the Treasury (ie Chancellor Phil Hammond’s right hand woman) who is in some way responsible for laying out the temporary tariff regime to be invoked in the case of a no deal Brexit… https://twitter.com/mickfealty/status/1105859866676076545 The prospect of tonight’s free vote is already splitting not simply party colleagues, or even members of the cabinet, but ministers within the same critical department charged with delivering Brexit. It is obvious from …
The No Deal scenario announced unilaterally by the UK this morning keeps the Irish border open but at a cost to Northern Ireland business and sets up a border in the Irish Sea for the Republic but not Northern Ireland. And while it’s intended to keep the border open, the Republic would be obliged to levy tariffs on some goods heading from the north to the south. Northern ports would be a back door from the EU including Ireland but …
The image says it all – the Daily Mail’s prediction
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
Tony Connelly’s detailed report from the EU side identifies what he regards as a shift of ground by the UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox to try to satisfy the DUP which is skunnering the chance of a breakthrough. The EU has been shifting towards providing legally binding assurances, through a Joint Interpretative Statement that sets out the obligations to conclude a free trade deal and look at alternatives to the backstop in quick time. But in the Commons earlier this …
It’s a snap shot in a febrile atmosphere I know, but who can be surprised? A new poll from the Irish Times and Ipsos/MRBI – in fact parallel polls north and south – find that 59 per cent of Northern Ireland voters want a special arrangement for Northern Ireland for no checks on the border – even if that means some checks on goods travelling between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The poll also found that 67 per cent of voters …
