Message to the EU: Ireland’s economic interests are as important as the peace process

Irish Times Brussels correspondent Patrick Smyth demolishes the option of a border down the Irish Sea – not just because the UK government and the unionists won’t have it – but because it is against the economic interests of the Republic.  This assessment follows the leaking of a report by the Office of the Irish Revenue Commissioners saying that an invisible border on the island is “impossible”. “It is probably somewhat naive to believe that a new and entirely unique …

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Are we seeing spin to reduce the scale of the RHI scandal?

It seems moves are afoot to massage  down the estimate of the RHI overspend and thus presumably the damage to Arlene Foster and her official and party advisers. The “ new” information reported by Jonny Bell in the Bel Tel dates from January and  is therefore not new but newly exposed, we’re told. (Stand by for a chorus telling us they knew it all along).  The scaling down rests on the presented fact that the costs of  installing “combined heating …

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Active north-south cooperation would be the intelligent unionist response to Sinn Fein’s vision of unity out of Brexit

There has been a delayed reaction of critical comment on the Oireacthas report on the implementation of the Good Friday Agreement in the light of Brexit. The report called for special status for Northern Ireland within the EU but coupled it with a drive to work for unionist consent to a united Ireland. This would include a new New Ireland Forum of the type held in the early 1980s which recognised unionist Britishness but was repudiated by Fianna Fail and …

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A reply on Brexit to Nicholas Whyte

I don’t think I did leave out “the important dimension” of the Irish border, one of three issues identified by the EU before trade talks can begin. On this I agreed with the Brexit Secretary David Davis who asked how the border issue could  possibly be settled in advance.  A settlement on the Irish border has surely to be compatible with a wider deal and the EU I suspect will not allow an Irish tail to wag the EU dog. …

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Sharper words from Varadakar but no change in substance. But here’s a new idea.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Dublin government’s latest expressions of concern about Brexit are focused  on Ireland.  But why should the Irish expect  greater clarity and urgency from London on the border when London has been so  vague about everything else?  By itself, lack of clarity needn’t  be taken as a  sign of indifference. Leo Varadkar’s comments may be a mite sharper than Enda Kenny’s, but in substance there is not an iota of difference between them. Mr Varadkar, …

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Changes foreshadowed in the integrated energy and agriculture markets, leaving Stormont behind

The local vacuum of practical debate over Brexit continues, while real events move on.. I confess I hadn’t  heard of “the Celtic interconnector “ before coming across it in a story  in the Financial  Times. The EU commission made  this  announcement  at the end of June. A project to build an interconnector linking for the first time the French and Irish electricity systems will today be awarded a €4 million grant from the European Commission… At 4 million euros, it …

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Ruth Davidson’s breath of fresh air

Ruth Davidson, the leader of the reviving Scottish Conservatives, is a Tory of a different hue from the stereotype. The Unherd website she has written for has attracted the attention of the mainstream media. You don’t have to be a conservative  to feel  the hint of a breath of fresh air blowing through our troubled politics and to hope against hope  for a read across the North Channel.  This is how to think about politics.   Extracts The consensus surrounding …

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“Look, this Carthage obsession of yours. For Jupiter’s sake, let it go, man!”

With the Scottish First Minister, the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon, backing down, for now, from her previous strident position on indyref2 the BBC’s Scotland editor, Brian Taylor, detects the “scunner factor” at work. Voters in Scotland have thrilled to seven electoral tests in three years. They are already anxious over the uncertainty attendant upon Brexit. Are they ready for yet more eager talk from the SNP and the Scottish Government about the prospect of indyref2? Nicola Sturgeon has concluded that they …

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And there could be more dosh to come! But the government rejects demands from a chorus of women MPs to fund abortions for NI women

The payout could be higher as a result of studies of the impact of lower corporation tax and scrapping air passenger duty.  In its financial analysis the FT points out that Costs will be higher if the renewed commitment to allow Northern Ireland to set its own lower corporation tax rate and air passenger duty results in lost revenues to the UK exchequer. The DUP has confirmed to the Guardian that they will seek assurances that the block grant will …

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“It will be interesting to see what the delivery mechanism for that money will be.”

In his analysis of where the £1.5 billion, over a number years, from the Conservative/DUP arrangement will be spent, the BBC’s John Campbell makes a couple of interesting points about some of the new money, and all of the old money. There is also £100m to be spent on deprived communities over five years. It will be interesting to see what the delivery mechanism for that money will be. Stormont’s Social Investment Fund, which was also designed to help those …

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The DUP deal is nearly done. But they back a hard Brexit to thwart a customs border at the ports.

In the debate on the Queens speech Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader at Westminster gave a broad hint that a confidence and supply deal with the Conservatives will be concluded shortly.

But he also disabused us of  any notion that because the DUP favoured a “frictionless” border, it also meant they were supporting a version of a soft Brexit. The DUP is sticking with  their hard Brexit. Their reasoning is  essentially political, that the absence of customs checks in any form on the island of Ireland would mean customs barriers between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. This is  anathema to the DUP.

Meanwhile Jeffrey Donaldson has played down the  Daily Telegraph report that the DUP were demanding sweeteners of £2 Billion – or was it only £1 billion?  “Wide of the mark, ” he says.  One big problem at the Westminster end is the Barnett consequentials. If Northern Ireland gets more, more money, it follows that we raise the limits for Scotland Wales and English regions poorer than NI  to get more. more money too
The Daily Telegraph had earlier reported that the Democratic Unionist Party broke off talks with Theresa May this week as it told her to spend £2billion in Northern Ireland if she wants the party to prop up her minority Conservative Government.

The DUP demanded the cash – which works out as £1,100 per person in the Province – as talks veered dangerously close to breaking down altogether.

The talks became so strained in the past few days that the DUP negotiators in Belfast refused to pick up the phone to the Prime Minister’s team for 36 hours, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

Westminster sources said they now hoped a “confidence and supply” deal could be agreed next week, days before Thursday’s key vote on the Queen’s Speech.

The £2billion demand – with £1billion spent on the National Health Service and £1billion on infrastructure – was made by the DUP this week.

The Telegraph story added the bizarre detail

It came as the DUP team decided not to answer their telephones for 36 hours to the Conservative team .

A source said: “They stopped answering their phones. It went on for 36 hours. Number 10 is putting in calls and they are not answering their phones.”

The concern is that these hard demands for cash will make it harder for the Tories and DUP to work together over the next five years.

The demand could cost the UK taxpayer billions more if any of the cash is judged to trigger spending elsewhere in the UK through the Barnett formula.

Typically £1 spent in the Province would require an additional £35 to be found for Scotland, England and Wales.

Gary Gibbon of Channel 4 News, who’s a rare Westminster journalist taking an interest in Northern Ireland, said he didn’t expect the deal to be completed this week.

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“Cars being stopped and searched is not going to happen”

Whilst the BBC quote, at length, the concerns about a post-Brexit border of “a former customs officer in Donegal” whom they interviewed on Radio Foyle, the Irish Revenue Commissioner’s lead official on the topic has been speaking at a conference on Brexit in Dublin organised by the British Irish Chamber of Commerce.  From the Irish Times report The operation of a post-Brexit customs regime can be automated and simplified and does not need customs points with Northern Ireland, the Revenue Commissioner’s …

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Special status for the North is a possibility from Barnier’s speech. Would the UK agree?

EU negotiator Michel Barnier and the Irish government seem to be inching their way towards special status – sorry – arrangements, for the North. The EU is there for you, Ireland and so is a close partnership with the UK based on a fair free trade agreement – but ( only!) after sufficient progress on EU citizens’ rights and the financial settlement. So declared Michel Barnier in a speech to the Oireachtas that seemed designed to calm the worst Irish …

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“Brexit has become a central question in the identity conversation and that is dangerous”

In a commentary  “Brexit and Northern Ireland” on the EPC discussion paper( see below) the  legal academic Chris McCrudden  asserts the primacy  of the Brexit question and laments the  “ tone deafness” of the UK government to  Northern Ireland’s interests. But while he rightly sees the need to set priorities in the interparty talks, he doesn’t discuss here the reasons given for SF’s withdrawal from the Assembly such as an Irish Language Act and the legacy and other  issues  SF insist …

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The European Economic Area is looking more attractive as a Brexit solution but it aint perfect

It’s going to be a long haul. Perhaps we shouldn’t pay too much attention to the megaphone diplomacy – Junker’s claim that May was living in another galaxy, May accusing unnamed Commission bureaucrats of interfering in the British election. But it isn’t a good start. On balance May has come off slightly worse in early reactions without doing her any harm at all in the court of public opinion. Attention is turning back to an outcome that was  identified almost …

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On Brexit, the Irish are caught between two opposing forces, but at least they’re showing more invention and concern about the North than the British and northerners themselves

The ritual opening shots in the Brexit campaign must leave the Republic feeling caught in a trap in a dialogue of the deaf between two opposing forces. So much, so sadly predictable, in spite of all the warm words- although the crudeness of the exchanges is perhaps surprising. It’s pretty clear that the Irish government don’t favour the aggressive opening approach by the Commission and confirmed this morning by its chief negotiator Michel Barnier. On the detail of the FT’s …

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The devil is in the detail for softening a hard border and terms for a good trade deal

Here are a couple of Big Ideas. On the border…. It reads as dryly as any piece of euro-bureaucracy you could ever imagine. But here is a potential magic bullet that could ease the non-trade cross border problems of Brexit. It’s spotted by Dr Janice Morphett a planning expert currently with University College London writing in the Centre for Constitutional Change blog. It could be developed tight away, she says. Governments and local parties please take note.   There are …

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On Enda’s fondness for the precedent of German reunification, be careful of what you wish for

 The Irish government are entitled to congratulate themselves on their achievement in persuading the EU 26 to declare that if the North joined the Republic the new state would automatically inherit the Republic’s membership. Dublin hastens to add that this incorporates the  consent principle enshrined in the GFA and they are opposed to an early border poll. But the future of the open border is a completely different issue. Irish Times coverage ranges from euphoria about the declaration to nervousness …

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Brexit bites as EU workers start to say screw you UK we are outa here…

time to move on

If there is one advantage to having kids it is that it does increase your circle of friends. Humans need social contact, especially when going through the misery joy of having your first child. We compare notes with other parents, we sympathise when they tell you their baby is not sleeping even though inside we are delighted that at least our kid is not as bad as there’s. We force a smile when another parent tells us how their little …

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Left to themselves, the parties won’t agree. The time has come for the governments to bring forward solutions which involve the people directly

Observed from London, the political atmosphere at home is surreal.  The volume of comment on the talks is in inverse proportion to hard information. Expectations of agreement by Good Friday are so low that  the local media can barely be roused from torpor. Emergency action for feeding the Stormont cats occupied more space in the Belfast Telegraph the other day.  Further emergency action to fund the regional government must be taken within a week followed by the crunch decision to …

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