Economy – Page 3 – Slugger O'Toole

“Such pressure as is on Ireland (and it will be significant) will come from the reality of the situation…”

Pete Baker on February 2, 2019, 3:03 pm

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Worth quoting at length from Pat Leahy in the Irish Times on the Irish Government’s role in the ongoing Brexit negotiations. It’s a welcome, un-hysterical look at a key player in what will unfold. [And all too rare here! – Ed] Indeed. From the Irish Times By and large, Leo Varadkar, Simon Coveney and the Government apparatus as a whole have handled the Brexit crisis well – just as the Opposition, in the main, has been pretty responsible. Contrast our …

The DUP are the crucial “dominoes” in May’s bid to win a second meaningful vote

Brian Walker on January 7, 2019, 6:23 pm

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Theresa May’s strategy to try to win MPs’ endorsement of the withdrawal agreement is a little clearer, arising out of hints she gave to Andrew Marr yesterday. The strategy is classic if conventional politics, before a fundamentally divided, incoherent opposition, however formidable it now seems. It involves narrowing the gaps, wearing down opposition by a mixture of project Fear (miles of traffic jams and English police on Ulster streets ) and project Farce (the shipping company with no ships), and …

Crisp advice to Parliament on what to ponder over Christmas

Brian Walker on December 20, 2018, 10:31 am

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Perhaps the most celebrated of constitutional experts Vernon Bogdanor, has no doubts about what should happen next. The irony is that there is a much greater consensus among MPs than is apparent from the posturing of May’s opponents. Kenneth Clarke believes that about 80% of MPs are against a no-deal Brexit, while nearly all MPs accept that there should not be a hard Irish border, which would be incompatible with the spirit of the Good Friday agreement of 1998. The withdrawal agreement achieves …

Putting Brexit in Historical Perspective #NevinLecture

Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast) on December 13, 2018, 8:00 am

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HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE – Listen back to Professor Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke delivering the annual Donal Nevin lecture, explaining how UK trade policies evolved to the point that they entered the EU, and what this teaches us about Brexit. QUB’s Dr Katy Hayward responded with the Northern Ireland context.

Keep your eye on the glimmer of light in the Big Picture. But first we need to re-examine the backstop, sooner rather than later.

Brian Walker on December 10, 2018, 1:04 pm

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Although the sight of it is darkly occluded, the shape of things to come is emerging through the fog. Whatever immediate political strategy Theresa May chooses today, the dream of the hard line Brexiteers is in process of disintegration. Whatever the political turmoil today, the UK will retain some sort of close relationship with the EU. In Northern Ireland, unionists will have a closer relationship with the Republic and with nationalists generally – and I would argue with only slightly …

‘A New Ireland: a ten year plan?’ Book launch…

Paul Gosling on December 6, 2018, 3:54 pm

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‘A New Ireland: a ten year plan?’ is being launched at events in Dublin and Belfast tomorrow (7th December). The book considers the prospect for Irish reunification in the context of the impact of Brexit and demographic changes in Northern Ireland, alongside the economic strength and increasing social liberalism of the Irish Republic. Things are changing in Ireland, north and south. But the problems associated with the Brexit referendum result demonstrate the danger of having a yes/no vote without considering …

A riposte to David McWilliams

Brian Walker on December 5, 2018, 3:12 pm

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Out of interest… It was surprising that the Financial Times should publish a long triumphalist critique of Northern Ireland by the economist David McWilliams without comment from other economists (“ The final frontier”, Life & Arts, December 1). Mr McWilliams claims that most people in Northern Ireland want to stay in the EU. It is true that 56 per cent voted for the UK to remain in the EU. He echoes Sinn Féin in claiming that this meant many unionists …

The DUP are waking up to the idea that Fortress Ulster has no future. They should be encouraged, not abused

Brian Walker on November 26, 2018, 12:29 pm

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They are still talking in euphemisms. They are desperate to avoid finding themselves suddenly on the losing side without any notion of the outcome. Goodness knows what Theresa May can offer to sell the withdrawal agreement when she visits Northern Ireland on her nationwide tour. Experience of local negotiations argues strongly against side deals and the arguments have been so well rehearsed already. Entirely wisely, the DUP are for once hinting at a solution to the backstop conundrum other than …

Theresa is still stuck at deadlock with the cabinet

Brian Walker on November 13, 2018, 12:44 am

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If the Tory press is to be believed, Theresa May is now refusing to be bounced into the early deal the EU has almost ready and waiting for her to sign – apart from the finicky wee detail of the backstop. Sunday night and Monday’s morning’s late negotiating session in Brussels failed to clinch it. It’s politics not policy now that’s holding it up, meaning the massed ranks of her critics from left and right including the DUP. Even so, …

We talk about the brain drain as though we’re concerned but we don’t actually try to solve it!

Soapbox on November 11, 2018, 7:49 pm

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Belfast City Airport frontage

Jonny McCormick is the Director of Rosseau Ltd and runs a podcast called Spoke. In the true nature of a soapbox post, this is a ‘one perspective’ rant – but I’d love to hear your thoughts on what I’m saying so please do let me know what you think in the comments! We constantly hear about the brain drain in Northern Ireland. How our talented young people (and increasingly people of all ages) are leaving to find work and opportunities …

Future Ireland: Where Can The North Thrive?

Claire Mitchell on September 4, 2018, 12:01 pm

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For some masochistic reason, I feel umbilically connected to the soil and the soul of this island. Especially this messed up northern corner of it. But there is no point in drawing borders in the soil, and driving flags into it, when it only has 60 more years of harvests left to give. It occurred to me recently that the best case scenario for Northern Ireland, as things stand, is to have a mediocre Brexit, for Stormont to limp back, for orange …

Brexit Secretary tells NI businesses to ‘speak to Dublin’ if no deal…

Brian O'Neill on August 24, 2018, 9:59 am

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The Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said Northern Ireland businesses trading across the Irish border should contact the Irish government for advice in the event of a ‘no-deal‘. My translation – ‘We have enough problems of our own, you Paddies sort yourselves out.’ Is it reading too much into it that the Government would happily throw NI under the bus if needed? So much for the DUP/Conservative bromance. That’s in the context of the Ashcroft Poll from June which revealed that ‘Six out …

Could the lights go out next March?

Brian Walker on August 22, 2018, 8:46 am

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The inanities of managing Brexit reach new depths. Times exclusive Emergency Brexit energy talks as ministers hide no deal plans Greg Clark, the business secretary, has held urgent talks with officials in Dublin on an emergency agreement to keep the lights on in Northern Ireland after a “no-deal” Brexit. Downing Street wants to avoid publishing its plans for a worst-case scenario that include importing thousands of generators north of the border. The electricity industry has operated a single wholesale market …

How the Northern Ireland Government is destroying its own cities and towns…

Patrick Murdock on June 13, 2018, 4:07 pm

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House of Fraser, with the announcement last week that it is to close 31 Stores across the UK, is just the latest in a long line of retailers which have either gone to the wall, or are scaling back their high street retail operations through store closures. Business rates are effectively a trading tax which businesses have to pay to have a high street presence, which in the era of online retail, puts bricks and sticks retailers at a tremendous …

Would the DUP be any happier with a backstop, staying in the single market?

Brian Walker on June 11, 2018, 5:44 pm

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So it’s October then. The UK will fail to present its withdrawal plan to the EU summit at the end of the month and its backstop, handed in only after a cabinet crisis was averted on Thursday, would still lead to a hard border in Ireland. Lurking in the background may still be the option of some differentiation in NI’s status from GB. Such is the peculiar course of these negotiations, that the EU is mildly encouraged by the state …

Latest wheeze – Northern Ireland to become a joint EU/UK economic area with a 10 mile buffer on the border

Brian Walker on June 1, 2018, 12:11 pm

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Sun Exclusive! Special economic zone could be useful for dairy farmers and allow for trade on the border. David Davis praises ‘constructive’ talks with Michel Barnier in London The Brexit Secretary is also drawing up a 10 mile-wide buffer zone the length of Northern Ireland’s 310 mile border with Ireland. Dubbed a ‘special economic zone’, it will be for local traders such as dairy farmers – who make up 90 per cent of the cross border traffic – and share the …

Meanwhile in Scotland, courtesy of Brexit, the long march to Indyref2 is about to begin

Brian Walker on May 24, 2018, 10:33 am

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Tomorrow Nicola Sturgeon will unveil the SNPs economic case for another independence campaign. As it will focus attention on Scotland’s sluggish economic performance under an SNP government on the defensive, it’s a high risk strategy. Support for Indyref2 would first exploit resentment that the UK government has given no weight to the big Remain majority in Scotland and will ignore the Scottish Parliament’s refusal to give consent to a Withdrawal Bill that would fail to devolve powers over agriculture and fishing …

MPs urge the UK government to end “untenable” inaction over the absence of Stormont after the Bank holiday. But who believes anything will happen?

Brian Walker on May 23, 2018, 12:23 am

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The call by the NI select committee of MPs to secretary of state Karen Bradley to “redouble” her efforts to restart talks aimed at restoring devolution has a ritual flavour about it. There seems no appetite for action on this front while the two governments are in stand-off over the UK’s long awaited proposals for exit and backstop which are due to be submitted by the EU next month and agreed in October. The MPs also said she must outline …

Border poll recedes as polls show nationalist support for unity hinges on Brexit outcome

Brian Walker on May 21, 2018, 9:59 am

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If two polls out today are to be believed, pressure for an early border poll will recede and unionists fearing the worst, will heave sighs of relief For nationalists, while much hinges on the economic consequences of Brexit, majority opinion among them in favour of unity hasn’t solidified, despite the UK government’s confused approach to Brexit and the border. The Newsletter gleefully reports Two separate polls have found no evidence that Brexit has yet caused a radical shift in public …

Have we really reached full employment in Northern Ireland?

Brian O'Neill on May 10, 2018, 10:45 am

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Ulster Bank economist Richard Ramsey has suggested that Northern Ireland is now “effectively at full employment” as the latest official figures showed the unemployment rate was 3.5% in the three months between December and February 2018. This is quite a drop from the over 20% we had in the 1980s. Northern Ireland has traditionally been associated with high unemployment so this is quite a turnaround. Now as always there are some caveats, the BBC reports: The inactivity rate in Northern Ireland stands …