Brian Walker

With all respect to them, a Labour-led government depending on a gather-up of  3 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 North Down Independent and the Nats  – maybe even including the DUP for goodness sake –  cannot be called stable. Even the Guardian, the voice of the “progressive majority” is steeling itself for a Conservative-Lib Dem deal. Across the aisle, pro-Tory commentator Ben Brogan is pretty firm about the extent of Cameron’s offer to Clegg. He is offering to trade reform of the …

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Unionist-leaning historian Henry Patterson is among many who expect pressures for  united unionism to grow. Yet Peter Robinson’s spectacular defeat has profound implications for the future of his party and for that of unionist politics as a whole. This may not presage the return to the laager that a previous drive for unionist unity involved, when it snuffed out the flickers of power sharing 37 years ago. But it could have baleful consequences. Unionist unity might well prompt a parallel …

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The otherwise excellent Peter Kellner shows sympathy for the Conservatives ‘ dislike of PR and trots out the old shibboleth of those who have no practical  experience of it. The principled reason is that (first-past-the- post) keeps the constituency link. Each MP represents a relatively small population of fewer than 100,000. Any proportional system would gravely weaken that link. In both parts of Ireland and particularly in NI where both systems operate, we know all to well that the constituency …

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  So would we prefer PR STV for Westminster as well as for Stormont and council elections? I bet Peter would. Today he would only be lamenting failure to top the poll rather than struggling for his political life. For precisely the same reason some people prefer the sudden death of first-past-the-post over the shilly shally of STV. Looking on from Dublin Noel Whelan, in a typically Irish mixture of sorrow and schadenfreude dismisses the old fashioned ” unwritten” British …

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 Now that the Liberal Democrats have entered negotiations with the Conservatives, a possible deal may be reached by combining the Lib Dem ambition for electoral reform with the aim of reducing the size of the House of Commons they both share. Incidentally this may not be at all to unionists’ tastes as I hear the necessary boundary review could give another seat to nationalists. So watch this space in the longer term.  The two parties are far apart on electoral …

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Unionists would be wise to resist the temptation to crow and come out as anti-Labour partisans in any hung parliament scenario or Cameron government. History shows that Labour were as good for unionism and often better than the Tories with whom they are now making up. This applies even to United Ireland supporters who are strong within Labour. The peace process is not yet a wasting asset. I found it remarkable at a hustings in Hammersmith last week that Andy …

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A Conservative tally of around 310 seats puts NI unionists in a minor bargaining position. Fewer seats, and Cameron talks to the Lib Dems or defies them to bring him down. On bargaining, note that Brown’s pledge to  Robinson simply guarantees the status quo for this financial year, Cameron’s to protect front line services. For next year , all bets are off. From UK Polling report Conservatives between 300-310, Labour between 220-230, the Liberal Democrats between 80-90 (though I warn you, …

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MSM verdicts are mixed about the NI parties’ potential for influence in a hung parliament. There is a tendency to see this through the wrong end of a Stormont telescope. Privately I doubt if Peter Robinson reads it so optimistically. His coalition flyer is a good wheeze to take last minute wind out of Ucunf sails. Still, the DT’s Rosa Prince remains reluctantly impressed with the DUP’s negotiating power. The DUP have decidedly mercenary approach to political deal-making. Two years …

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Alan Trench points out the wider implications of Peter’s offer to Dave. The price would be to shelter Northern Ireland from budget cuts through the Barnett formula. Such a policy, if the Tories were to adopt it, would seriously undermine the idea of a Union. It would reinforce the existing (and huge) disparity in levels of public spending in Northern Ireland and in other parts of the UK, which has been declining in recent years. It would reduce the incentives …

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For the gargantuan TV productions, the very worst moment  of the long night comes only minutes after they go on air.   At ten o’clock tomorrow night, David Dimbleby ( or if you must, Alastair Stuart) will reveal the results of the Exit Poll. Share with me the YouTube moment in 1992 when a still brown haired David Dimbleby predicted a hung parliament, with either the Conservatives short by 10 or Labour short by 15. The most likely result he added, digging in deeper, …

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The Guardian have been running a delicious story from “Conservative sources” I’ve been much involved in during the day, claiming that Cameron would defy convention and insist that Brown should resign straight away if the Tories become the largest party but without an overall majority. This would invoke the ultimate taboo and embarrass the Queen by potentially involving her in politics.  The Cameron camp are worried that if time is allowed for inter-party talks opinion could solidify in favour of …

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Forget the Leader’s Debate! The real story cancels out all that stuff from Peter about “Ucunf ” lobby fodder”. This was quite something to keep back from the voters tonight. Even if the Conservatives haven’t responded  it’s a neat way to neutralise the Ucunf challenge. What would it say about the Conservatives sincerity in joining up the UUs if they were prepared to throw them over for a  secret deal with the DUP before the election? This may be an election stunt. …

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Traditionally people in NI judge British politicians by how they match up to their own hopes, fears and prejudices, and  relish  it when they fall down over some nuance or hidden trap and then wail : ” they don’t understand.” Nationalists will surely have said that and more,  as they listened to David Cameron speaking from the  La Mon House hotel  today. By dodging the volcano ash in the middle of a 48 hour mammoth campaign swathe, Cameron was doing far …

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What can Cameron offer unionists of any ilk and what can he give them in return? If the Guardian exclusive is right, he’ll try to ditch the conventions and claim victory straight away, if the Cons emerge as the largest single party. What’s the threshold for going it alone or forming a coalition? The truth is nobody knows. Nudging 300 seats  feels right for a minority government, 20 or 30 less seems different. With 300, some level of support from …

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You may have caught Gordon Brown’s amazing late barnstormer on TV but the clip they used on the BBC was the wrong one, full of facts and therefore beside the point. At last, he threw aside the paralysing caution that gives him a bad temper and reverted to his Presbyterian roots. Another case of too little, to late? Maybe, maybe not. Your movement is like every other great movement in history. It is built on moral convictions. First hundreds, then …

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If the Tory “surge” produces an overall majority, watch out for the recriminations that the Lib-Lab “progressive majority ” failed to nudge voters towards tactical voting earlier. Some of the animus I guess would be directed at Nick Clegg who has been giving the uncommitted brilliant reasons for not voting Labour – and thereby may have been deflating his own balloon. He may be lucky now to win 85 seats, well up on last time but painfully short of the …

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 In Ipsos Mori’s hotly awaited  poll  of the marginals, late switching to the Conservatives in Labour marginals (hardly a “surge”) points to a Cons overall majority of 2. This is the first poll to suggest a Cons majority and explains Brown’s last minute campaigning in core Labour areas. From the Reuters’ report   That represents a 7 percent swing in support to the Conservatives from Labour compared with the last general election in 2005, and could be just enough to put …

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The Bel Tel reports: David Cameron is planning a rousing pro-Union speech during a visit to Northern Ireland in a last-ditch bid to galvanise unionists behind his party. It’s quite a complicated pitch isn’t it? He’s asking voters to support Ucunf before the election and will ask for DUP support after it, if he wins. The Tories are confident an informal understanding with unionist MPs from Ulster could secure Mr Cameron a safe passage with his key early Commons battles, …

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Well, hustings are alive and well and living with the Irish in Britain. Last week, I chaired a hustings meeting in the new key marginal of Hammersmith. The entire election could hinge on this constituency. In Irish Votes Count, the manifesto of the Federation of Irish societies, a key demand is to ensure the Irish in multicultural England retain their separate identity for independent assessment in the census and other social categories. This is an ageing community whom the Celtic …

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