Don’t count on unionists in the driving seat

A Conservative tally of around 310 seats puts NI unionists in a minor bargaining position. Fewer seats, and Cameron talks to the Lib Dems or defies them to bring him down. On bargaining, note that Brown’s pledge to  Robinson simply guarantees the status quo for this financial year, Cameron’s to protect front line services. For next year , all bets are off.

From UK Polling report

Conservatives between 300-310, Labour between 220-230, the Liberal Democrats between 80-90 (though I warn you, I may be a pollster, but my personal powers of election prediction are notoriously poor!)

For other pollster predictions, TNS have made a seat prediction of CON 292, LAB 204, LDEM 114; Peter Kellner’s personal prediction is CON 300-310, LAB 230-240, LDEM 75-85; Angus Reid have a prediction of CON 320-340, LAB 165-185, LDEM 105-120.

 

Thinking about all those undecideds , I’m betting on the swing in Lab-Con and Lab- LD  marginals increasing during the day, giving the Conservatives an overall majority of 2-10. Last minute voters like to back a winner. It’s a theory.

Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London

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