Marginals forecast – narrow Conservative majority

 In Ipsos Mori’s hotly awaited  poll  of the marginals, late switching to the Conservatives in Labour marginals (hardly a “surge”) points to a Cons overall majority of 2. This is the first poll to suggest a Cons majority and explains Brown’s last minute campaigning in core Labour areas.

From the Reuters’ report  

That represents a 7 percent swing in support to the Conservatives from Labour compared with the last general election in 2005, and could be just enough to put them into power without the need for support from other parties.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    If it that close Davey will still have to cosey up to the DUP as 1 or 2 seats of the UUP will not be enough for stability with his own majority of 2 but either way the mad-dog-anti-euro-right will have him by the short and curlys.

    It will be great news for the Nats parties in the Cletic fringe who can blame all their woes(cutbacks in public excpenditure) on the right wing Tories.

  • Greenflag

    IWSMWDI,

    ‘either way the mad-dog-anti-euro-right will have him by the short and curlys.’

    Sandwiched between the DUP on the one side and as you say the mad hatters of Torydom -Maggies direct heirs on the other the Cameroonians if they squeeze through with a narrow majority will provide much mirth as they become the ‘big society’ Was’nt it the party of family values last time under Major with yer man providing horizontal relief to his Education Minister and half the Cabinet having to resign over sexual peccadillos of one sort or another ?

    Lets hope DC does’nt spark off another generation of gunfire in NI . Given that 80% of Conservative ‘cuts’ are still unknown he may want to protect his Tory heartlands of South Eastern England before somewhat more than the fringe flat earthers 😉

    The best result for the UK’s political future would be a hung parliament with the Lib Dems being able to bring in the electoral reform which will finally rescue the UK from it’s unhealthy dependency on just the Tories or Labour . The old left right divide is from a pragmatic policy stance never going to rescue the UK from it’s continuing decline .

  • PaddyReilly

    As reported in the Conservative Press. Just another example of people trying to ‘talk up’ their side. Opinion polls in this context are as about as useful as dreams. Wait till Friday for the only unfalsifiable truth.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    As a matter of interst where has the great-Briitsh-love-of the-underdog and their now supposed alleged aversion to spin gone to?

    Poor El Gordo, he may have sat on his hands when Tony was organising his war and causing sirpatrickmayhem in the middle east but he doesnt do spin and although he must take blame as the incumbent PM for the financial chaos the Tories would have surely have deregulated even more than Labour if they had been in power and sent to troops to Iraq and of course Cameron is a spin-meister modelled directly on Blair.

    I’m no fan of El Gordo but he an excellent command of his brief but cant help warming to the poor fecker as the press kick him form pillar to post – but perhaps that just the Irish perspective.

  • Greenflag

    El Gordo doesn’t do the slick salesman routine like either Blair or Cameron . I don’t doubt that under the Tories the chaos would have been probably worse and the cure (with those 80% of unknown cuts as per Andrew Marr hidden away in Cameron’s back pocket only to be revealed when the door closes behind whoever will sit in No 11 .

  • Cynic

    When the underdog is a flea bitten mangey cur it gets little sympathy

  • Greenflag

    cynic ,

    ‘When the underdog is a flea bitten mangey cur it gets little sympathy’

    Ah that oul Tory arrogance is so hard to keep under wraps eh ;(?

    btw -if it bites you in the arse (the arrogance) not the mangy cur don’t expect any sympathy 😉

  • Hold your horses, there!

    The essential premise of this thread has just been demolished:

    Ipsos Mori have since issued the following clarification:

    The last of our polls in key marginal constituencies, Ipsos MORI’s new poll for Reuters points suggests that the Conservatives are inching towards a majority with a 7% swing from 2005 in these key battleground constituencies. However, given that national polls are suggesting the Conservatives are more likely to lose seats to the Liberal Democrats than gain from them, this majority is not necessarily guaranteed.