Marginals forecast – narrow Conservative majority

 In Ipsos Mori’s hotly awaited  poll  of the marginals, late switching to the Conservatives in Labour marginals (hardly a “surge”) points to a Cons overall majority of 2. This is the first poll to suggest a Cons majority and explains Brown’s last minute campaigning in core Labour areas.

From the Reuters’ report  

That represents a 7 percent swing in support to the Conservatives from Labour compared with the last general election in 2005, and could be just enough to put them into power without the need for support from other parties.

Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London