A Blueprint for a New Centrist Political Force in Northern Ireland…

“Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.”

What if three political parties that have spent years competing for parts of Northern Ireland’s political centre have more in common than their public disagreements might suggest?

The Ulster Unionist Party, Alliance Party and SDLP have been knocking chunks out of each other at Stormont for as long as I can remember. Yet perhaps they share more politically, electorally and philosophically than any of them would care to admit.

What do I mean by this?

When political parties disagree publicly, there are at least two possible explanations. They may genuinely oppose the principles and substance of each other’s policies, or they may be emphasising their differences to preserve their individual political identities and electoral appeal.

There is, of course, nothing surprising about political parties attempting to create clear blue water between themselves and their closest electoral competitors. We can see elements of this at Westminster, where the Conservatives and Reform UK are seeking to establish their distinct political identities, while Labour and the Greens occupy very different positions in their own competition for votes.

But this raises an interesting question for Northern Ireland.

At what point does defending a party’s distinct identity become more important than advancing the policies its members actually believe in?

I am not suggesting that the UUP, Alliance or SDLP deliberately manufacture their disagreements. I have no evidence to support such a claim. What I do want to explore is how much common policy ground already exists between these three parties, and whether the barriers to closer political cooperation are as substantial as we might assume.

This is not entirely new. You may recall that back in October 2016, then UUP leader Mike Nesbitt invited SDLP leader Colum Eastwood to address his party’s annual conference. The two leaders were exploring a new political partnership, seeking to establish a credible opposition to Sinn Féin and the DUP at Stormont.

It represented an attempt to develop what was described at the time as a new middle-ground politics.

Whilst this initiative didn’t lead to a lasting political partnership, it did show that parties with different constitutional positions could recognise common interests and a shared approach to government. Both parties deserve credit for this.

Maybe we need to renew this initiative, but this time with three parties.

This article also follows on from my previous piece, Drumcree: Could the Crisis Reshape Unionist Politics? – Slugger O’Toole, in which I explored the importance of building broader political coalitions. But perhaps that principle could be taken a stage further, beyond the traditional boundaries of unionism and nationalism.

Given the renewed political disruption, disagreements and reopening of historical divisions over the last few weeks, wouldn’t it be good to have a constructive debate about what cooperation might be possible at Stormont?

Imagine a new centrist political grouping with shared interests in building a successful economy, prioritising political stability over cultural division, reforming our public services and a genuine determination to advance reconciliation.

Northern Ireland doesn’t necessarily need another unionist party, another nationalist party or another cross-community party.

Perhaps what deserves consideration is a political arrangement capable of bringing together constitutional unionists, pragmatic nationalists and non-aligned representatives without demanding that any of them abandon their identity.

Of course, more than goodwill and a few shared aspirations is required as we need to examine how far apart they actually are on policy.

Comparing their recent manifestos, all three recognise the need for greater investment in our Health and Social Care system, alongside reforms to reduce waiting lists and improve the delivery of healthcare. They may disagree on the precise mechanisms, but the broad objectives are remarkably similar.

All three support more affordable and accessible childcare, recognising the financial pressure on working families and the importance of childcare provision to economic participation.

There is also considerable overlap in their economic ambitions, particularly around supporting local businesses, attracting investment, improving employment opportunities and developing a more skilled workforce. Differences undoubtedly exist over taxation, redistribution and the extent of government intervention, but there are shared objectives worth examining.

Their manifestos also contain common themes around educational opportunity, social inclusion, environmental protection and developing cleaner energy technologies, although there are variations in individual policy commitments.

Most political parties will support better healthcare, economic growth and improved education, but the important question is whether these three parties could agree on the reform measures needed to fundamentally improve our public services.

Perhaps the most significant common ground between the Ulster Unionist Party, Alliance and SDLP is their shared commitment to effective, stable and accountable devolved government in Northern Ireland.

The UUP is committed to maintaining Northern Ireland’s place within the United Kingdom. The SDLP advocates Irish unity through democratic consent, while Alliance does not define itself by either constitutional tradition.

Despite these differences, all three recognise the importance of making Northern Ireland work under its present constitutional arrangements.

This may be the single most important principle that unites them: Stormont’s government must function effectively now, whatever Northern Ireland’s constitutional future might be.

However, we shouldn’t underestimate the challenges. The key question is whether they could cooperate and come together to agree a new programme of government?

If they were to agree on shared ambitions around effective government, public service reform, economic growth and development and, above all, political stability they could potentially develop a stronger collective voice within the Executive or form a more coordinated opposition group.

The next Northern Ireland Assembly election is scheduled for 6 May 2027, and therefore this is an opportunity to examine whether any form of closer political cooperation is desirable or practical.

If the parties were minded to contemplate a formal or informal alliance, and possibly an electoral arrangement, it might unsettle some of their traditional supporters and voters.

However, some of those in Northern Ireland who don’t vote, and are currently turned off by politics here, might welcome the opportunity to vote for their joint approach.

Given the potential difficulties of aligning three political parties into a centrist group, it is necessary to carefully consider what the options are and what the advantages and disadvantages may be.

One form of a potential alliance would be a joint opposition arrangement comprising three independent parties that co-ordinate and agree policy. The advantage of this is that they retain control of their policy, but the downside is that the connections may be weaker than other options.

The second option might be a formal political alliance where the parties retain their identities but agree a programme of work and possibly electoral cooperation. This would provide a stronger policy framework and structure but would require greater effort to persuade each of their supporters.

The third is a new political party with common rules, leadership and manifesto. This would create the strongest organisational structure of the three options, but would also present the greatest challenge in reconciling their different constitutional identities.

The biggest question is whether all three parties, who disagree over Northern Ireland’s constitutional future, could nevertheless agree a common programme for government and a format that delivers long-term stability.

At a time when political disagreements are dominating the headlines and the debates in the Assembly, surely it is worth exploring what these three parties could achieve together rather than separately?