This thorough analysis by leading academics in the field, Sean Haughey Jon Tongue and Ben Rosher concentrates first on preventing Assembly breakdown and the cosmetic reform of joint First Ministers the agenda recommended by the SDLP now apparently been pursued by the Secretary of State. Later it argues as I do for more open process for reform rather than the previous hot house sessions behind closed doors like the Stormont House Agreement and New Approach.
Overall the analysis is pessimistic about any form of consociationalism delivering effective government. Nevertheless the authors duck the conclusion that the D’Hondt consociational model so beloved of academics has finally failed. Unlike poles are supposed in theory to attract each other, but in this case have tended to repel more than attract.
At one time or another the local parties have flirted with the idea of a voluntary coalition like the ill-fated Sunningdale model of 1973. But majority coalition government of this kind spooks Sinn Fein particular with memories of Unionist majority rule, of 1921- 72.
The declining DUP, once keen on voluntary coalition in their pomp have discovered the virtues of d ‘ Hondt, as it allows them to seek security within the comfort wall of the unionist designation. The shared nightmare of both main parties is that voluntary coalition could in theory dispense with either DUP and Sinn Fein ( but not both at once ). It shatters the mutual veto but could also weaken cross community consent. So both of them are likely to cling to nurse for fear of something worse.
After almost 40 years of failure is it not time to confront them with radical alternatives and argue through the stages? By keeping the Assembly in being for a limited term after a single party boycott, the latest mooted reforms may in theory make sudden breakdown less likely. Would it also create a voluntary coalition by default that could be ratified in a fresh election – an election moreover which would put pressure on the rogue party on strike to join up again. And lo! We might then have achieved a voluntary coalition by the will of the voters.
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
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