What you need to know
Combined DUP-SF vote falls by 5%, as UUP overtake DUP as most popular Unionist party
On Monday (27 July), the Belfast Telegraph published results of a recent LucidTalk poll, which saw support for DUP and Sinn Féin fall by a collective 5 percentage points, with both parties recording their lowest level of support in five years. Support for the DUP (15%) fell by 3% since the previous poll in April, and saw the party overtaken by the UUP (16%) as the most popular Unionist Party. Earlier reporting suggested that 4 in 10 unionist voters who previously gave a transfer to the party now say that the Jeffrey Donaldson situation means they will no longer do so. Support for Sinn Féin (22%) is now 7% lower than its result at the last Assembly election. The Alliance party also recorded a five-year low in support at 10%, pushing it into 6th place, while the SDLP continued to climb to 13%, with the smaller parties (Greens [5%], Aontú [3%], People Before Profit [2%]) remaining unchanged.
What next: The news followed earlier reporting which suggested that 8 in 10 voters, including four in 10 DUP supporters, do not think the DUP is being honest about what it knew regarding former leader Jeffrey Donaldson’s behaviour. Separately, LucidTalk polling found that two-thirds of voters predicted that the appointment of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister will have little-to-no impact on Northern Ireland”.
Officials authorised to continue spending as deadline passes without an Executive budget
Contingency arrangements in the Northern Ireland Act 1998 and Government Resources and Accounts Act (NI) 2001 will trigger on Saturday (1 August) as the Executive remains without a budget. Permanent Secretaries will be authorised to spend up to 95% of last year’s funding. According to BBC News, actual 5% cuts are highly unlikely, as the NI Secretary can ultimately step in and pass a budget through Westminster, as happened in 2017 and 2022 during previous political deadlocks. Executive ministers are continuing to push the Treasury for additional funding they say is needed to deliver a viable budget. Leader of the Opposition Matthew O’Toole MLA (SDLP, South Belfast) agreed that there are “problems with the devolved financial settlement” but said: “We don’t agree with them that the tactic to deal with it is to simply throw your hands up and refuse to set a budget.”
What next: New NI Secretary Chris Bryant MP made his first visit since his appointment yesterday (31 July), holding meetings with the political parties at Hillsborough Castle. The parties had previously agreed a “programme of work” with the Treasury to look at Stormont’s finances after engagement with Bryant’s predecessor Hilary Benn.
Budget uncertainty puts Executive’s plan to tackle violence against women and girls at risk
On Thursday (30 July), the Belfast telegraph reported that the Executive Office’s second Ending Violence Against Women and Girls (EVAWG) delivery plan was at risk of not being fully delivered due to the absence of an approved budget for Northern Ireland. The plan, which was launched in April and expected to run from 2026 to 2028, features 15 actions focused on prevention and early intervention. No EVAWG funding has been confirmed or issued to councils under the Local Change Fund since April, with some councils understood to be progressing planned work at risk while others have paused their plans. The Regional Change Fund, which supports eight expert organisations including Women’s Aid, Nexus and the NSPCC, is being funded under interim arrangements until September. The Executive Office did not respond when asked how much funding is required to deliver the plan in full, or whether all 15 actions are being reconsidered, while Belfast City Council confirmed that no Local Change Fund monies have yet been confirmed for the 2026-2028 delivery plan.
What next: An Executive Office spokesperson said it remains “fully committed” to delivering the plan, with Ministers currently considering plans for the Local Change Fund in the absence of an approved budget.
Stakeholder Watch
Declan Kearney MLA (Sinn Féin, South Antrim): “The Good Jobs Bill will benefit every working family regardless of background. The DUP’s blocking of it is indefensible. Support the Good Jobs Bill”.
Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly MLA (DUP, Lagan Valley): “The world is an increasingly dangerous place and the push is on to secure stronger protection for citizens through defence spend and investment. This is necessary and prudent. The UK Government will be using some of this investment to support companies across the UK – and Northern Ireland can play a key role. Our defence spend per head of our population by MOD and UK Gov is far behind the rest of the UK – I and my DUP colleagues are pushing for a target to be set to increase this significantly. That is not only fair, but it could be a huge boost to our economy and we have excellent companies that can contribute”.
Sorcha Eastwood MP (Alliance, Lagan Valley): “Lagan Valley, like many other places, didn’t escape the ravages of de-industrialisation. Factories closed and with them, a bit of local pride. It’s easy to look back at the past and say we got it wrong, but maybe we had it right the first time. If there is a push to support Apprenticeships & vocational pathways- I’m at the front. Break down the barriers to work and let us get a bit of pride back in our communities, we did it before and we can do it again- we need the UKG to back business & people. Let them thrive”.
UUP Leader Jon Burrows MLA (UUP, North Antrim): We need tougher laws and stronger sentences for crimes like this. The fact that shoplifting can carry a higher maximum sentence than abusing dementia patients in your care is simply perverse.
Leader of the Opposition, Matthew O’Toole MLA (SDLP, South Belfast): “This headline might make you think this is a normal accounting process. It isn’t- it’s the Executive imposing a brutal 5 per cent cut on itself by refusing to agree a Budget.”
TUV Leader Jim Allister MP (TUV, North Antrim): “The PM’s very first action illustrates the absurdity and constitutional offence of Northern Ireland being subservient to EU, not British, rules. “The cut in VAT on electricity cannot apply to NI because under the Protocol we are subject to a minimum VAT rate of 5% on electricity. The permission of our colonial masters, the EU Commission, would be required to allow a cut to 0%. “This is what happens when you surrender sovereignty over your own territory to a foreign power”.
Claire Sugden MLA (Independent Unionist, East Londonderry): “Sugden raises concern over future of rural community meal services”.
Doug Beattie MLA (Independent Unionist, Upper Bann): [Responding to Jon Burrows MLA comments’ on sentencing] “This can be dealt with more effectively if we had a Sentencing Council for Northern Ireland in the same way they have it for England, Wales and Scotland”.
Northern Ireland Office: “I really want to spend my time focusing on the future of Northern Ireland”. @RhonddaBryant speaks to the media in Belfast on his first visit since being appointed Secretary of State for NI last week.
Other Stories
New NIO parliamentary private secretaries announced
On Monday (27 July), Pam Cox (MP for Colchester) and Pamela Nash (MP for Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke) were announced as the new parliamentary private secretaries for the Northern Ireland Office ministers. Writing on social media, NI Secretary of State Sir Chris Bryant said he was “delighted” to have the two MPs in the Northern Ireland Office.
NI hospitals lost equivalent of 470 beds a day to delayed discharges last year
Northern Ireland’s hospitals lost around 470 beds every day last year to patients who were medically fit to leave but had no suitable care waiting for them, the Irish News reports. Department of Health figures show that 171,662 delayed discharge bed days were recorded across the five HSC Trusts over the most recent 12-month period reported by each. Of those, 68,622 bed days (40%) were filled due to a lack of available nursing or residential care placements. A Department of Health spokesperson said “the only medium to long term solution is to reduce demand and manage demand differently”, and referred to the Neighbourhood Policy Framework, which initially focuses “on the needs of older people, who are the highest users of health and social care”. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said he wants to create a National Care Service, however social care powers are fully devolved to Northern Ireland, meaning the NI Executive would have to decide whether to implement reforms in the region.
UK Government rejects “unworkable” land checks on Irish border
On Tuesday (28 July), The UK Government said it was cracking down on abuse of the Common Travel Area without introducing “unworkable land checks” on the Irish border, according to the News Letter. A spokesperson said the Common Travel Area protects seamless movement for British and Irish citizens and claimed that enforcement is being strengthened through intelligence-led operations across Northern Ireland’s sea, air and transport networks. The Government said £3.7bn is being invested in Immigration Enforcement operations, and that immigration data sharing with the Republic of Ireland is being expanded following the latest UK-Ireland Summit. The comments follow Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Alex Burghart saying a future Conservative government would be prepared to introduce checks similar to those carried out south of the border. Recent LucidTalk polling found 51% of people in Northern Ireland support regular immigration checks at the Irish border, while 44% are opposed. Support was highest among unionists, at 95%, while 80% of nationalists were opposed.
Archibald calls for air passenger duty exemption on Derry-Dublin route
On Wednesday (29 July), Economy Minister Caoimhe Archibald urged the UK Government to reconsider its decision to apply air passenger duty (APD) to the planned Derry-Dublin air route, according to the BBC. The Minister said she is “deeply disappointed” by the decision, arguing that taxing passengers “runs entirely contrary” to ensuring the sustainability of a route of regional significance, and noted that the UK Government had committed to the Derry-Dublin link in New Decade, New Approach. The route is being funded by the Irish Government under a Public Service Obligation (PSO); with the existing Derry-London PSO route, backed by the UK Government, currently exempt from the duty. The UK Government said it only removes APD on government-funded routes that start and end in the UK, but remains “open to conversations” with the Irish Government. Irish Transport Minister Darragh O’Brien has previously indicated that services may resume in October.
Consultation launched on restricting promotion and placement of unhealthy food and drink
On Wednesday (29 July), the Department of Health and Food Standards Agency (FSA) launched a consultation on restricting the promotion and placement of food and drink high in fat, sugar and salt (HFSS). The measures are designed to help address obesity, which the Department of Health has identified as “one of the most important public health challenges facing Northern Ireland”. 65% of adults in NI are living with obesity or excess weight. Health Minister Mike Nesbitt said: “Evidence shows us that multibuy offers and positioning of certain unhealthy products in shops significantly increase purchasing of food and drinks which are high in fat, sugar and salt. This can lead to a higher chance of obesity and being overweight, which can in turn increase the risk of serious health conditions.
Belfast City Council prepares to introduce new measures to tackle short-term lets
On Monday (27 July), The Irish News reported increased efforts by Belfast City Council to address the growth of Airbnb and short-term let accommodation properties which have removed hundreds of dwellings from the city’s residential property market. The Council has issued enforcement notices against 19 properties since the start of 2025, including 11 in the first half of this year, a significant rise from just 2 in 2024, and none in 2023. New Supplementary Planning Guidance is also in the works to give planning officials sharper tools to enforce housing policy around short lets. Analysis by PropertyPal found that rent prices in Belfast have increased by 57% in the past five years, rising from an average of £749 per month in the first quarter of 2021 to £1,176 per month in the first quarter of 2026, an increase partially attributed to the growth of short-term let accommodation.
UUP Leader Jon Burrows sets out concerns over a future Reform government
On Tuesday (28 July), speaking to The Irish News, UUP Leader Jon Burrows warned that a future Reform government in London could create uncertainty for Northern Ireland. Mr Burrows described Reform Leader Nigel Farage as an “English nationalist, as opposed to a unionist”, and said it would be “absolutely imperative” that any Reform government did not put English nationalism ahead of UK unionism. He added that a Reform government would bring “unpredictability”, including the possibility of hundreds of new MPs who were “inexperienced, unseasoned, untested”. Mr Burrows also gave a “cautious welcome” to Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s early days in office, saying he was pleased Mr Burnham was not prioritising constitutional change or border polls. However, he said the test would be whether the new Prime Minister governs for the whole UK and ensures policies such as VAT cuts for hospitality apply to Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland’s Chief Electoral Officer warns electoral canvass “no longer fit for purpose”
On Wednesday (29 July), Northern Ireland’s Chief Electoral Officer Dr David Marshall warned that voter registration arrangements are “no longer fit for purpose”, according to the Belfast Telegraph. In a paper setting out potential reforms to the electoral canvass, Dr Marshall said the current system poses risks to the completeness and accuracy of the register. The electoral canvass is the process of obtaining the names and addresses of everyone who should be on the register. NI’s canvass is intended to take place once a decade, but has been carried out at uneven intervals in 2006, 2013 and 2021. Beginning a canvass removes everyone from the register and requires them to re-register. Dr Marshall said Northern Ireland could move towards a more “automated, data-enabled” registration system, using public sector data to reduce burdens on the public. A spokesperson for the Northern Ireland Office said the UK Government is committed to legislating to reform and modernise the canvass system, and to testing automated voter registration across the UK.
Across the Border
Germany’s Merz demands sweeping EU budget cuts in visit to Dublin
On Tuesday (28 July), German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited Dublin for talks with Taoiseach Micheál Martin. Merz used the trip to call for significant revisions to the EU’s long-term budget, the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), saying the European Commission’s proposed 60% increase in spending was “impossible to justify at a time when virtually all member states are making enormous efforts to consolidate their public finances”. Euractiv reports that Ireland, as EU Council President, is expected to submit a new “negotiating box” on the budget by October. Martin emphasised that Ireland will be “an honest broker” during the negotiations, but warned that securing agreement will mean “reconciling the irreconcilable”.
Harris invites new UK Chancellor John Healey to attend summit of EU Finance Minister
On Monday (27 July), RTÉ News reported that Tánaiste and Finance Minister Simon Harris spoke with new UK Chancellor John Healey. They discussed a range of issues including the Ireland-UK economic and trading relationship, Ireland’s EU Presidency priorities, EU-UK relations, and ongoing engagement between his Department and His Majesty’s Treasury. Mr Harris invited Chancellor Healey to attend the informal gathering of EU Finance Ministers in Dublin in September. They also both agreed to hold bilateral talks at the G20 meeting of Finance Ministers in Asheville, North Carolina next month.
Irish Government appoints head of new AI Office
On Thursday (30 July), the Irish Government announced the appointment of Paul Byrne as CEO of the newly established AI Office of Ireland. The new statutory body becomes operational tomorrow (2 August) will be the central coordinating authority for the implementation of the EU AI Act. In a statement, Minister for Enterprise, Tourism and Employment, Peter Burke TD said: “AI is a transformative technology which offers extraordinary potential for our economy and society but requires appropriate oversight and accountability to ensure people are protected.”
What We’re Reading
Newton Emerson: Would you like to be the next UUP leader? Here’s how
In Thursday’s Irish News, Newton Emerson writes that the UUP, “like most parties in Northern Ireland, is a far smaller and more fragile organisation than observers often realise”. He notes that the party’s total membership is estimated to be around 2,000, with 400 of those being active across the party’s 18 constituency associations. In light of the latest LucidTalk poll, which saw the UUP overtake the DUP, Emerson says this “could be a significant development for unionist politics but it has to be considered in terms of how much change small organisations can manage”. While the DUP is estimated to have similar numbers of members, it is “less vulnerable to entryism only because it is tightly controlled from the centre”. Emerson writes that although some NI voters simply want to vote for the “largest, strongest party within its designation”, there are others that need “a more inspiring reason to switch – a vision, a philosophy, or some clear orange water between the UUP and other unionist parties”. He says that “to capitalise on a mood that appears to be shifting in its direction,” new UUP leader Jon Burrows will need to develop this vision, and resolve infighting and “get a coherent new set of candidates in place”. This would usually mean engaging with “think tanks, consultants, pollsters and many other forms of support”, before “sell[ing] their conclusions step by step to the elected representatives, the members and the voters”. But this “takes time and resources the UUP does not have”. Emerson concludes that if Burrows “pulled this off it would be an extraordinary political achievement”, but even if he did it would leave unionism “perilously close to becoming a one-man band”.
Forward Look
Thursday 13 August 2026
NI Chamber Summer Social, The Dark Horse, Belfast- Read more here.
Thursday 3 September 2026
RSUA Conference, Riddel Hall, Belfast- Read more here.
Monday 7 September 2026
First sitting of the Assembly after Easter recess
Thursday 10 September 2026
Sustainability, Renewable Energy & Climate Tech @ NI Manufacturing & Supply Chain Conference, Eikon Centre- Read more here.
Belfast Chamber of Commerce Business Lunch with Economy Minister, The Merchant Hotel- Read more here.
Friday 11 – Saturday 12 September 2026
SDLP Conference, Crowne Plaza Belfast
Friday 18 – Saturday 19 September 2026
DUP annual conference, La Mon Hotel, Belfast
Friday 25 – Saturday 26 September 2026
UUP annual conference, Crowne Plaza Belfast
Thursday 1 October 2026
Beyond Borders Summit, The New Carbon Tax and Dual Market Access, ICC Belfast- Read more here.
Thursday 8 October 2026
NILGA Conference, Island Arts Centre Lisburn
Friday 23 October 2026
Social Enterprise Awards for NI 2026, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast
Wednesday 18 November 2026
North West Future of Energy Conference & Exhibition 2026, White Horse Hotel- Read more here.
Thursday 19 November – Friday 20 November 2026
NIFHA Annual Conference 2026, Slieve Donard Hotel- Read more here.
Saturday 21 November 2026
TEDxStormont, Parliament Buildings- Read more here.
Wednesday 25 November 2026
Housing Rights Private Rented Sector Conference, Skainos Centre, Belfast. Read more here.
Thursday 10 December 2026
NIFHA Housing Finance Conference, DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Templepatrick- Read more here.
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