How Ukrainian ingenuity is turning the tide against Russia…

The Ukraine war has now lasted longer than the First World War. What was intended as a three-day Blitzkreig to seize Kiyiv and the regions bordering Russia, has turned into a stalemate reminiscent of the Western Front in the First World War, where gains are measured in yards rather than miles.

Unlike earlier wars, the main cause of death is not artillery, but the drone. According to the Latvian intelligence service, 70-90% of all casualties are caused by drones.^[1] President Zelensky has stated that 62% of such attacks are fatal.^[2] The Ukraine president is obviously not an independent source but given that drones explode on contact, his figure may not be far off the mark. Speedy evacuation by helicopter is also impossible meaning that serious wounds are invariably fatal. One does not need to look too hard to find scores of videos of wounded Russian soldiers shooting themselves to avoid a lingering death.

Both sides are naturally coy about their losses but this strange Sitzkreig has probably caused over 1.2 million Russian casualties with at least 325,000 dead since February 2022.^[3] Ukraine has admitted to 52,000 dead but the real figure is probably much closer to 100,000.^[4] Russia has consistently been the protagonist, inevitably incurring heavier losses than the defender and the propensity for ‘meat assaults’ whereby small bands of soldiers, sometimes on motorcycles, try to infiltrate Ukrainian lines offer little chance of a major breakthrough but guarantee heavy casualties.

Russia is trying to bleed Ukraine to death on the battlefield while striking the home front. Ukrainian apartment buildings are frequently hit by long range drones while in response, Ukraine is targeting the Russian oil industry, last week’s spectacular strikes on a Moscow oil refinery being a case in point. Russia claims to have shot down over a thousand fixed wing drones during the night of 18/19 June 2026 and say they are firing over a hundred Shahed drone at Ukraine every night.^[5]

What will give out first? Ukrainian manpower or the Russian economy? As Ukraine shows to sign of giving into Russian territorial demands and Moscow shows no sign of moderating them, the war will continue for the foreseeable future.

The battlefield is a harsh teacher and in order to survive, Ukraine has had to learn quickly. David Patreus, a retired US general who commanded US and NATO troops in Iraq and Afghanistan has recently said that Russia “no longer has the upper hand” and, “What’s the real genius is how they’re (Ukrainians) pulling it all together (in an) overall command and control ecosystem.” He went onto say that AI will soon direct drones and that western armies would be better scraping armoured units and replacing them with drones. ^[6]

The current tactical advantage is augmented by raw numbers, Ukraine is out producing Russia in drones, four million of them in 2025 and five-six million this year.^[7] The long-range ones are systematically destroying Russia’s oil industry, the cash cow that funds the war, while the medium range ones are hitting Russia’s battlefield logistics. The western section of the front, running from Kherson to Mariupol on the sea of Azov is dependent on two tenuous supply lines, one from the Crimean port of Sevastopol, the other Highway M-14 (R-280 to the Russians). Both of these routes are now coming under intense pressure from Ukrainian medium-range drones which are striking fuel trucks and military vehicles. The Ukrainians do not have the ability to make a decisive breakthrough and cut off the Crimea by land but it is a region of enormous importance, Russian prestige depends on holding it therefore keeping it supplied will draw in more and more resources which cannot be committed elsewhere.

The font lines of the war are essentially an enormous mutual siege. The side which is unable to keep its troops supplied with food, fuel and ammunition will inevitably have to fall back. Russia with its much larger population can afford the luxury of ‘meat’ assaults, Ukraine cannot; in order to survive, automation, innovation and strangulation of enemy logistics are the best means to fight.