Forward Independence? Three Anti-Union First Ministers Elected in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland…

Adam Fusco is a Senior Lecturer in Department of Politics in the University of York

The results of the devolved elections in Scotland and Wales have seen three out of three First Minsters elected for the first time that wish to see the immediate or eventual independence of their nations. To date, Wales has largely been absent from conversations about independence, but the historic victory of Plaid Cymru in the Senedd election brings Wales into discussions about the breakup of the UK, which have long existed in Northern Ireland and been central to Scottish politics since the SNP’s Holyrood victory in 2007. These victories are unlikely to lead to the immanent breakup of the UK but are likely to give impetus to the issue in the coming years.

Senedd 2026

Plaid Cymru’s victory in the Senedd election was historic. This was less for the overall vote share captured by the party, but for another party taking the reins of power after 27 years of Labour rule under devolution and one hundred years of Labour victories in Wales. The result saw Plaid elected on 35.4% of the Welsh vote, along with 6.7% for the pro-independence Wales Green Party, providing a combined total of 42.1% for anti-union parties. The Plaid victory and the collective return for anti-Union parties, however, was not a straightforwardly pro-independence vote. Neither party included independence as a commitment for a first term in government and with the Caerphilly by-election in 2025, Plaid were also the beneficiaries of an anti-Reform vote. Yet, the same was true for the SNP’s first government in 2007. Elected to run a minority government in 2007, the SNP commanded only 37% of seats in the Scottish Parliament – a less favourable share than the 45% won by Plaid in the 2026 election. The SNP demonstrated their competence in this term, building in their second term the case for an independence referendum and despite its failure making independence a perennial issue in Scottish politics.

Holyrood 2026 and Stormont 2022

The election in Scotland provided comparatively more predictable results – though it is worth noting the unlikelihood of a party winning five elections, each after running full terms, in normal democratic contexts. In the constituency ballot, the SNP captured 38.2% of the vote – 9.5% down from 2021. On the regional list, the result was lower at 27.17%, but when combined with the pro-independence Scottish Greens, the vote for elected pro-independence parties totalled 41.15% – evidencing split ticketing in favour of the Greens. This returned a paradoxical result, that 2026 election saw the most pro-independence MSPs ever returned in an election, at 73/129, yet on the second lowest vote share for pro-independence parties since 2007. The pro-independence block benefitted from fragmentation of the pro-Union electorate with the entry of Reform UK. Indeed, the parliament following the 2026 election is the first in which a second placed party has not achieved over 20 seats. The results show comparative dissatisfaction with the SNP, which has in turn depressed the vote for pro-independence parties.

Fragmentation has also been important in Michelle O’Neill’s election as First Minister in Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin’s vote share in the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election was 29%. When combined with the SDLP, the nationalist total was 38%, compared with 40.1% for the elected Unionist parties (which excludes the two elected Unionist independents). Indeed, even when non-elected nationalist votes and the PBP return are adding in, the pro-unity total was still less than equivalent Unionist vote. Subsequent elections since 2022 have tipped further in nationalism’s favour, but a majority for unity has still to be registered in Northern Ireland. Cumulatively, this suggests that although nationalist parties are in pole position in devolved institutions across the UK, support for the break-up of the United Kingdom is not as imminent as the 2026 devolved elections in Scotland and Wales make it first appear.

The Future

Plaid Cymru and the SNP have had good fortune in having their principal opponents in power at Westminster during the 2026 elections. They are likely to maintain this fortune with Labour in power until 2029, which will be helpful when facing any limits to their governance during this term.

The rise of Reform could also be opportunity for these parties. Unionist party fragmentation is likely to continue and be a motivating factor galvanising support as anti-Reform vehicles. Moreover, Reform’s constitutional politics remain ill-defined and untested. Sometimes characterised as English nationalist, if Reform attempt to bolster their Unionist credentials they will need to do so in a convincingly Scots-British/Welsh-British register rather than in an Anglo-British fashion (indeed, a risk also if Reform’s seeks to organise in Northern Ireland).

Plaid also holds an advantage over the SNP when historically this appeared the opposite, in being the new force in Welsh politics, appearing creative and different when evidence suggests the sheen on the SNP is tarnishing. Honeymoon periods can be swift, so each party will need to be creative to bolster their governing credentials and to make the case for independence plausible and attractive.

Lastly, one new possible vista for UK politics is that the devolved nations assert themselves collectively at the centre. The three first minsters may attempt to coordinate and speak with a single voice that contests Westminster power and the constitution with greater plausibility and weight. Scottish and Welsh independence is not immanent, nor is Irish unity, but opportunities have emerged that make it possible in new ways.

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