Matthew O’Toole, the former Downing St insider now leader of the opposition at Stormont, has issued a firm but polite warning of the prospects for all Ireland’s future of the increasingly likely alternative to Labour. YouGov’s poll today extends Reform’s lead, Reform 28% Con 17% Green 16% Lab 16% LD 13%
Starmer may be replaced as leader by despairing Labour MPs, but if he is not, the next most likely prime minister is certain to have a radically different approach to Northern Ireland and British-Irish relations. That is of course Nigel Farage, a man who cares so deeply about sensitive questions in Northern Ireland that he performed an “Up the Ra” salutation in a Cameo video for a small fee. His party’s Brexit spokesperson, Danny Kruger, told the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice conference that the party would complete the so-called “unfinished business” of Brexit by reopening EU–UK agreement on the Irish Border. They take a predictably trenchant line on protecting British veterans from accountability over unlawful Troubles killings.
All this is merely to list the various profound policy challenges a Reform-led government would present for the North and British-Irish relations. But there is a deeper question: at what point are citizens in the North entitled to say they do not want to live in a country run by Farage? That question goes far beyond the constituency traditionally defined as nationalist, and includes many people – and many in my constituency from unionist backgrounds – who are horrified at the prospect of a UK run by and for the coterie of charlatans and spivs that surround Farage.
Although an obvious soulmate of Jim Allister’s in theory as a British nationalist arch Brexiteer, not so much in practice where links beween them seem slight. and Farage’s unionism is suspect.
The Financial Times presented a devastating overall critique of Reform in an article entitled, What would a Reform government do?.” Full of contradictions and U turns. Reminding you of… who?
Rob Ford, professor of political science at Manchester university, said: “Over 25 years Nigel Farage has prospered by having just a couple of political views and building an entire movement around a basic message of ‘I don’t like the EU, I don’t like immigration, I do like sovereignty’, it was not a deep programme…
Farage has promised to stop small boat crossings in a fortnight, a virtually impossible task. Reform says it would withdraw the UK from the European Convention on Human Rights and disapply the Refugee Convention that prevents Britain from deporting some migrants. Echoing Trump’s use of the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, the party is promising a UK Deportation Command. It estimates it will be able to detain 24,000 migrants at a time and deport up to 288,000 on five flights a day, figures seen as unrealistic by some. It has vowed that detention centres will only be located in constituencies that do not elect Reform MPs or councils. Countries such as Jamaica and India currently refuse to accept returns. A party spokesperson said a Reform government would use visa bans to incentivise countries to accept returnees or, if necessary, process them in third countries. Overall, Reform’s proposed changes to migration rules could mean 2mn people having to leave the country, according to FT calculations. Yusuf, now the party’s home affairs spokesperson, has embraced this figure, saying: “You’d better believe it.” This represents a big shift: Farage had previously described mass deportations as a “political impossibility”
Ford at Manchester university said Reform’s manifesto at the next election could depend on who is still in Farage’s top team, given his propensity for falling out with colleagues. “The evidence so far domestically in Reform local authorities shows that if you bring together people with limited political experience and limited interaction with each other and no common detailed programme of government, no institutional structures for working out differences on policy questions, you create a scenario which almost guarantees splitting and fissuring,” he said. “The Labour Party has had a century of experience of this, and look at how bad they are. Imagine a party with no practice.”
Farage’s problem is that the wider Reform expands the more he is obliged to widen his intake and ideas, with the risk of entryism by far right characters looking for an easier ride to victory than they’d ever dreamt of , holding incendiary borderline or actual racist views and other alt – rightwingery or worse, respectable former Tory ideas, thus causing a clash between them. Disillusioned ex Labour red liners in the north of England who hate Starmer seem to be lending their vote to Reform , relying on its core anti immigration appeal and persistent anti-EU hostility, these beng proxy for all sorts of dissatisfactions and grievances and against a growing trend of general public opinion. Yet while the recent elections were a rousing victory particularly in England, Reform may have peaked, according to this analysis from YouGov founder Peter Kellner
Prime minister Farage? The danger has receded… for the moment. For much of last year, polls and elections consistently showed Reform on course to win the next general election. That has changed. Over the winter, the party has lost support, Nigel Farage’s ratings have slipped, and signs have multiplied of voters’ appetite to vote tactically to defeat Reform candidates.
Although it looks like a very tough game, Labour with its house in order and a few wins in its political bank over the next three years can still have it all to play for in the fast shifting sands of public opinion, although with nothing like the big win of 2024. What Labour has to do to climb the mountain we’ll leave for another time. Too much excitement for one day.
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
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