Will the Next UUP Leadership Race be a Two Horse Race?

Speculation is growing that Mike Nesbitt will step down as UUP party leader sometime in the new year. This reflects comments he made over the summer …

“He told the media on Monday that he would make a decision on whether to run again by January 2026 at the latest. He said: “Eighteen months ago I was on the back benches and, as I put it, cruising towards retirement, not expecting to become the minister of health, not expecting to become again the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party.“That has thrown a couple of spanners in the works.“If I am not going to stand, in fairness to the party, I think I have to make a decision early in 2026, given there are elections in May 2027.”He added: “That is something I will look at in terms of what happens between now and Christmas, but I do think early 2026 is the latest I can leave it in fairness to whoever might be coming in if the decision is to stick to where I was 18 months ago.”

Nesbitt succeeded his predecessor, Doug Beattie, who sensationally quit in the summer of 2024 when his choice for co-option into the Assembly was overruled by other members of the party.

Writing for the ‘Belfast Telegraph‘, Suzanne Breen reckons the UUP will soon be faced by a choice between veteran Robbie Butler and newcomer Jon Burrows.

Of Burrows she writes that “…rarely has a newcomer to Stormont made such a big impression. In the three months that he’s been on the Assembly’s blue benches, Jon Burrows has generated more publicity than the UUP’s other eight MLAs combined. In the chamber, on the airwaves, and in TV studios, he is now his party’s most high-profile representative…Burrows has rattled cages in Stormont, and not just Alliance ones. His vocal and assertive approach has ruffled feathers in his own party. Some suggest that’s because his pace and productivity is “showing the rest of them up””

On Butler,  she writes “(he) is the overwhelming favourite among the UUP’s Assembly team. In the event of a contest, he could possibly command the support of all his MLA colleagues. He is also well-liked by every party in the chamber…His leadership pitch will be that he is well-placed to grow the pro-Union vote. He will argue for a positive, modern unionism with a social conscience. Although this can be a hard sell to traditional voters, Butler has always believed it’s the only way for unionism to win hearts and minds long-term.”

Overall, Breen says that Burrows is popular with the grassroots and seen as ‘breathing new life into the party‘ whereas Butler ‘will stress his experience and track record.‘

If both men stand, it will trigger the first leadership contest within the party since Mike Nesbitt defeated Jon McCallister in 2012. Nesbitt’s successors Robin Swann, Steve Aiken, Doug Beattie and Mike Nesbitt himself were all unopposed when they made their bids for the leadership.


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