Would the EU Have Britain Back?

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey recently wrote an opinion piece in the Guardian arguing that Britain should strengthen its ties with the EU opining:

There are big prizes on offer if he does. Giving our economy the boost it desperately needs, pulling it out of the cycle of low growth and high debt that the Conservatives plunged us into. Helping to raise more funding to lift our NHS and other public services off their knees. And, crucially, showing people that there is a better, more hopeful way forward than the nasty, nonsensical “solutions” they hear from Nigel Farage and his fellow snake-oil salespeople on the right

A recent Sunday Times poll* claimed that if the Brexit referendum were repeated today less than one third of the British electorate would vote to leave the EU:

An exclusive survey for The Sunday Times found that 29 per cent of people would vote to leave the EU, compared with 52 per cent at the time of the referendum in June 2016.The tables have turned, according to the poll by the think tank More in Common, which found that this figure, 52 per cent, was now the percentage that would vote to remain.

Likewise, a poll last month found that majorities in some of the EU bloc’s most prominent Member States would support full UK reintegration into the EU, but not on the same terms it had before.

* Health warning. I don’t personally hold much stock in opinion polls, but they seem to be the usual unit of currency of verification around here, so for the purposes of this piece, that’s what we’ll use.

Prior to the the UK formally leaving the EU on 31 January 2020 it had negotiated and secured a number of derogations (opt outs or exemptions that allows a member state to not apply a certain EU law or policy, either temporarily or permanently) these included:

Eurozone Opt-out: The UK never adopted the Euro and kept the British Pound. Under the Maastricht Treaty (1992), the UK secured a permanent opt-out from joining the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).
Schengen Area Opt-out The UK was not part of the Schengen Area, which allows passport-free travel between most EU countries. The UK chose to maintain border controls and did not participate in Schengen.
Justice and Home Affairs Opt-outs The UK had the option to opt-in or opt-out of individual laws in the area of police cooperation, criminal justice, and asylum. For example, it opted out of over 100 EU justice and home affairs laws in 2014, then opted back into 35 of them (e.g., Europol).
EU Budget Rebate Secured by Margaret Thatcher in 1984. The UK received a rebate on its contributions to the EU budget, as it paid more into the EU than it got back, especially in areas like agriculture.
Social Charter Opt-out (initially) The UK opted out of the Social Chapter of the Maastricht Treaty under Prime Minister John Major (1992), which aimed to improve workers’ rights. Later, Prime Minister Tony Blair signed up to it in 1997.
Charter of Fundamental Rights Opt-out In the Lisbon Treaty (2007), the UK negotiated a protocol that limited how the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights applied in UK courts. This wasn’t a full opt-out, but a limitation on its domestic legal effects.

Now, Britain of course wouldn’t need to opt for full EU integration. There are a number of options open to her;

The European Economic Area; an international agreement that allows countries outside the European Union (EU) to participate in the EU’s single market. This means they can trade goods and services freely with EU countries, without tariffs or restrictions. All twenty-seven EU Member States are members, with three of the four European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries: Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein. Switzerland is in EFTA but not in the EEA. It has its own separate agreements with the EU.

The European Customs Union, a trade agreement between the European Union Member States and some non-EU countries that eliminates customs duties and establishes a common external tariff for goods entering the union from non-member countries. All twenty seven EU Member States are members and Turkey, Andorra, and San Marino have partial customs union agreements with the EU

Full EU membership

Of course, were Britain to choose any of the options above there is no guarantee that they would be accepted back into the fold and in the event of this happening Britain would have to implement the The Four Fundamental Freedoms of the European Union, the free movement of goods, the free movement of services, the (very controversial) free movement of people and the free movement of capital. Brexit demonstrated that the notion of British exceptionalism within the EU was a myth and Britain would also have to renegotiate reentry without the previous derogations and would almost certainly have to accept the Euro and Schengen at the very least

The question, therefore, is whether those polled in the above surveys recognise this and whether such reentry conditions would be a bridge too far.